GUILTY Turkey - Sarai Sierra, 33, NY woman murdered, Istanbul, 21 Jan 2013 - #4

[ThinkHard]

Hello!

Just a few more scattered thoughts. I find the current discussion fascinating.

I’ve gone over this same question in my head several times. Why would she go into that area alone when it’s clearly so spooky? But now they are saying she was dragged to that spot, and actually was killed a distance away.

The only explanations I can think of is that she was probably suffering from jetlag and overlooked the cues that would’ve alerted her to impending danger.

That and being in an unfamiliar environment. Perhaps her sense of adventure overrode her personal safety and she simply failed to be cautious.

A degree of anxiety comes along with traveling, either from air travel or fearing the unknown. Maybe with the 21st being her last day there, she felt as though her anxiety and worries were all nonsense since until then nothing had gone wrong in her trip. This might have made her more willing to chance a quick trek into those ancient city walls.

Besides, would being in a strange country not overwhelm one’s senses at first? She had been there only a few days, definitely not enough time to acquaint oneself with the ins and outs of an entire city.

Moreover, it was her first time anywhere outside the US. She was there for her own reasons, and was enjoying this new sense of freedom.

We see what we want to see. I was once told an anecdote about two men—one a hunter, and the other a missionary—who had just returned from a trip to Africa. One of them said he never saw a single church there but that he had seen hundreds of lions. the other said he had only seen churches there and never saw a single solitary lion.

All I’m trying to say is it’s very possible, for an unknown reason, she went to that area of her own free will, not seeing the danger, and stumbled upon her killer(s).

The confusion regarding the videos could be an innocent mistake. Such blunders reflect badly on law enforcement but after all they are only human. It can also be due to poor video quality.

In the end, the fact remains that law enforcement tracked the woman in this video and it led them to Sarai’s body.

With that said, I find it rather difficult to believe that the killer hired some woman to masquerade as Sarai, determine where and when to make herself visible on camera, used the surveillance system itself to direct law enforcement to the body.

It just seems like too much trouble when the killer could just as easily have discarded of her remains in a quicker and more efficient way.

This “cloak and dagger” stuff would just bring unwanted attention if you had just killed someone. First the killer would have to worry about the connections he’d make. The more people connected to the crime, the higher the chances are that you will get caught, because after all, the woman you hire, or whoever else, will someday talk. Honestly speaking, how many people can a killer and associates trust with this type of responsibility?

You will have to not only figure out a way to get rid of this body, or create some story to draw attention away from yourself, but you will also have to kill anybody else you get involved. In such cases, if you’re the killer, you will either not tell anybody, and take the secret to the grave, or do a whole lot of unnecessary killing.

Plus the question of time. She was last seen alive on the 20th by the man from whom she rented a room. The kind of decoy story being suggested here could not be carried out or planned on such short notice. Sarai’s last steps would have to be known, how she dressed, how she walked and so on, otherwise your attempts to fool police will be in vain. This is why I think lots of time would be required to pull off something of such great scale.

I tend to believe her murder was random, because to think otherwise only complicates things. A lot of evidence points to this, such as similar attacks in that same area.
I really think some people here have been sidetracked by small details.
Excuse me, don’t wish to ruffle any feathers.
Of course these are just speculations, I can still be wrong. I admit with the way things stand now, anything is possible...
Thanks!

Jet leg? From what she'd already been in Europe for almost 2 wks at that point. She wouldn't have been suffering jet leg 2 wks in to her trip. And I know she just got back from her Amsterdam Munich trip but I'm fairly certain that is only a 2 hr time difference from Istanbul, and a 2 hr time difference would hardly cause jet leg.....

Sorry let me go finish reading your entire post.

 

[belimom]

I heard someone was having a hard time understanding my point and I have copied my full quote above to reiterate.

What I have written here is my opinion of what I've read in this forum about Z and also from what his siblings say about him in newsstories. I had carefully worded my opinion. I used the word "likely" a paranoid schizophrenic. I did NOT say it was 100% certain nor did I diagnose him as one.

It should be readily apparent that neither I nor anyone else can diagnose anyone without physically interviewing them face-to-face.

I stand by unequivocally with everything I've said here. I have extensive clinical experience in this area.

We should know more when LE release more facts about Z. Hopefully Z had been seen by physicians and/or psychiatrists and they should have his medical records on his mental illness.

bbm

Bourne, that's interesting - nice to have another professional around. Have you been verified here on WS?

As one psychologist to another (or to a mental health professional), I'm curious what makes you think he is "likely" Paranoid Schizophrenic? I haven't been following closely the past few days and must have missed something. TIA.

 

[StCirq]

I finally saw the police video from the lady in the water and both photos are of SS, both taken in the US. Nothing I saw of that video was taken in Turkey or from any surveillance footage we have seen.

My mistake, sorry.

Actually,, it was my mistake originally. Sorry.

Just had a drink at the Turkish bistro across the street from us. All the staff are Turks and all were talking about this case. They didn't have much of anything new to add to what's here, but I thought it was interesting they kept mentioning "paparazzi," shady characters who hang around tourist spots with binoculars, looking for vulnerable-looking people. Then they send out a group of tough young men to seek out those people and rob them or worse. Doesn't sound like it would have much to do with this case, as I got the impression these guys usually hang out around popular monuments and such, not in the kinds of places SS was found.

They also said there are probably at least 700 surveillance cameras in Istanbul, and that they've been hearing that LE still thinks SS was involved with either local criminals or criminals she'd corresponded with on IG and the internet. And that the electronics have likely been tossed in the sea.

Of course they're all just speculating, too, but it was interesting hearing a group of Turks talking about it.

 

[CMac2]

At this point, here's what I'm leaning towards:

1. The video IS Sarai. That said, no idea why LE released footage of her from the mall when she went missing, instead of the footage they had showing her with a significantly different look, on the DAY she went missing. Maybe it just took this long to verify the footage was actually her. Dunno.

2. Still unconvinced the murder was random, still equally unconvinced Z is the perp, and still unconvinced Z is actually anything other than "strange" or "different". To be fair, I'm not a psychologist, but I think it's premature to diagnose the man with any one particular mental illness. We know next to nothing about him, and can't even say for sure that the little bit of information we do have to bat around is accurate.

I'm inclined to believe that IF (BIG IF) Z is involved, he was somehow recruited to help move the body or something of that nature after the murder. Someone could have bribed him if he was at the scene, or is a regular at the scene. I haven't read anything to convince me he killed her.

 

[Yellow]

But what if a crime takes place and it wasnt your intention to kill someone but now you are freaking out, so you call your powerful, wealthy, and connected father, who says he will take care of it for you?....

Hey I admit its a stretch.....but it's possible.

Under that scenario, the murder would have had to have taken place on the 20th. Could you really organize that in less than a day, though? And what woman would be a willing accomplice in that? Maybe she might not knew what she is doing, but now that the video is all over the news, why take the risk someone third party would leak it?

Also, why do it where the body was found? The video led the police right to the body. Why not do a similar video in another part of town, call in an anonymous tip that you saw SS there and throw LE off the trail? The location of the video does not make sense for a deliberate disguise bc why do the video anywhere near the body?

I think it is hard to tell from videos what people look like. I do not see any reason LE would be misleading on this and we hear nothing from her family saying it is not here. At least by now I am sure someone in her family saw the video and no one is disputing it. She looks similar to the video in the airport.

 

[StCirq]

Hello!

Just a few more scattered thoughts. I find the current discussion fascinating.

I’ve gone over this same question in my head several times. Why would she go into that area alone when it’s clearly so spooky? But now they are saying she was dragged to that spot, and actually was killed a distance away.

The only explanations I can think of is that she was probably suffering from jetlag and overlooked the cues that would’ve alerted her to impending danger.}

You don't have jetlag 2 weeks after arriving in any foreign country, no matter how far away. Two days maybe, two weeks never.

I don't think the place she was dragged FROM was any less spooky than the place she was dragged TO!

 

[ThinkHard]

Well here is one thing I will say in regards to the possible decoy scenario.

I do not think, if you came from a family with certain connections it would be all that difficult to pull off this kind of cover with very short notice. Especially not if the people you pulled into the cover were already scared of, or worked for the family involved in the cover. After all anyone in the country illegally would certainly keep their month shut.

And additionally I just want to add that the very nature of people doubting the effort put into this particular type of cover up, where people say, no that's a lot of effort, no one would bother, would be exactly the type of reaction the perp was counting on in order to get away with it, and have no one looking in this direction.

I'm just saying if people believed one wouldn't or couldn't get away with that kind of cover on short notice, is exactly why its a pretty intelligent cover.

 

[Yellow]

I do however think it is slightly more probable the hostage scenario. Someone took her, had not yet killed her, maybe was going to " keep " her, and did the video as a decoy.

When all the commotion went on w her being missing, the person killed her and left her where the video left off.

Still think it is extremely unlikely, but I would put more into using a decoy if there was some sort of hostage situation rather than murder. If so, that still goes back to what I said originally, if that is not her, and there was a decoy, there was probably some organized crime involved or drugs...

I still think it was random or am acquaintance did it.

 

[Yellow]

Well here is one thing I will say in regards to the possible decoy scenario.

I do not think, if you came from a family with certain connections it would be all that difficult to pull off this kind of cover with very short notice. Especially not if the people you pulled into the cover were already scared of, or worked for the family involved in the cover. After all anyone in the country illegally would certainly keep their month shut.

And additionally I just want to add that the very nature of people doubting the effort put into this particular type of cover up, where people say, no that's a lot of effort, no one would bother, would be exactly the type of reaction the perp was counting on in order to get away with it, and have no one looking in this direction.

I'm just saying if people believed one wouldn't or couldn't get away with that kind of cover on short notice, is exactly why its a pretty intelligent cover.

It might be an intelligent cover, I can't think of any cases where such a cover had been done, I.e., involving a third party to dress as the victim. If you are going to leave the body there anyway, what purpose does it serve? Alot of people are still suspicious of some of the IGs so there is still alot of suspicion on them anyway,,,

 

[Rolandred]

I heard someone was having a hard time understanding my point and I have copied my full quote above to reiterate.

What I have written here is my opinion of what I've read in this forum about Z and also from what his siblings say about him in newsstories. I had carefully worded my opinion. I used the word "likely" a paranoid schizophrenic. I did NOT say it was 100% certain nor did I diagnose him as one.

It should be readily apparent that neither I nor anyone else can diagnose anyone without physically interviewing them face-to-face.

I stand by unequivocally with everything I've said here. I have extensive clinical experience in this area.

We should know more when LE release more facts about Z. Hopefully Z had been seen by physicians and/or psychiatrists and they should have his medical records on his mental illness.

If one is diagnosed as a paranoid schizophrenic - are these types prone to murder? Yes, he may be of this mental illness - his family had said he lived, "a disturbed life" in Istanbul...Just wondering if and when are paranoid schizophrenics murderous and if it is common with this diagnosis?...If so, maybe the police have that information - maybe he has other history of attacks?

 

[SophieRose]

Well here is one thing I will say in regards to the possible decoy scenario.

I do not think, if you came from a family with certain connections it would be all that difficult to pull off this kind of cover with very short notice. Especially not if the people you pulled into the cover were already scared of, or worked for the family involved in the cover. After all anyone in the country illegally would certainly keep their month shut.

And additionally I just want to add that the very nature of people doubting the effort put into this particular type of cover up, where people say, no that's a lot of effort, no one would bother, would be exactly the type of reaction the perp was counting on in order to get away with it, and have no one looking in this direction.

I'm just saying if people believed one wouldn't or couldn't get away with that kind of cover on short notice, is exactly why its a pretty intelligent cover.

Where did you that he came from a family with connections? Because he met with LE away from the police station?

 

[EncyclopediaBrown]

okay so let's say the video is definitely her. maybe she dressed to meet taylan, more relaxed and casual, afterall they were going to the bridge. she's not taking pics and decides to go buy s rug. several reports mention they wanted to speak to a rug dealer. she's carrying the rug back and gets picked up and kidnapped, they rob her and take her to that area, kill her and dump her with help from z.

without more surveillance a multitude of things could've happened after that last shot. how sure are we a car wasnt involved somehow?

 

[lavy]

Where did you that he came from a family with connections? Because he met with LE away from the police station?

He did met with LE in a police station.

 

[SophieRose]

He did met with LE in a police station.

Where are they getting that he comes from a family with connections? I haven't gotten any of that from any news reports. Yes, he went to college out of the country but so do a lot of Turks.

 

[SANDOVAL]

I was kind of surprised at that footage of camera crews trying to film the exact area, and even riding by on the train: because it looked so really awful.....dead branches and garbage everywhere. So if this is in tourist guides why is it left so bad looking?
It looks in some spots almost impossible to climb around WITHOUT falling, either SS or Z or anyone else .
Also, right, there are those chickens someone mentioned, so why not grow a few crops in little plots while you are 'living' there?
Sarai Sierra Katilin İzi Kanlı Taşta - YouTube

 

[Rolandred]

Actually,, it was my mistake originally. Sorry.

Just had a drink at the Turkish bistro across the street from us. All the staff are Turks and all were talking about this case. They didn't have much of anything new to add to what's here, but I thought it was interesting they kept mentioning "paparazzi," shady characters who hang around tourist spots with binoculars, looking for vulnerable-looking people. Then they send out a group of tough young men to seek out those people and rob them or worse. Doesn't sound like it would have much to do with this case, as I got the impression these guys usually hang out around popular monuments and such, not in the kinds of places SS was found.

They also said there are probably at least 700 surveillance cameras in Istanbul, and that they've been hearing that LE still thinks SS was involved with either local criminals or criminals she'd corresponded with on IG and the internet. And that the electronics have likely been tossed in the sea.

Of course they're all just speculating, too, but it was interesting hearing a group of Turks talking about it.

yep...whether it's relevant to her murder or not - I do believe she was involved with local internet scam artists....I mean - not any of the IG friends (excepting the Amsterdam one) have come forward to express any kind of feeling for what happened to her - unless the LE told them to stay quiet - kind of cold and strange...the whole case is weird which I guess keeps people asking for more info. 95% more LOL...

 

[zarra30]

Why did they wait around ten days to kill this double found floating in the sea? And why was the double still wearing the red top and jeans? Wouldn't her killers ask her to wear something different? Hey, maybe double was going to get paid that day, just like the drug mule theorists think Sarai was going to the caves to get paid.

Sorry, I just don't buy this double theory. JMO.

I too find the 'double' theory difficult. But not impossible, as I can't imagine what I'd do in such a traumatic situation, but difficult. There certainly have been other cases in the media of people impersonating cops and victims or pretending to be them by texting when dead, and even going to the bank with their ID. So it happens. Rarely, but it happens.

I was responding to why they began to focus and search one specific area of a neighborhood in the entire city of istanbul/country of Turkey. I believe a tipster and the texts, not the white car, led them there a few days after Sarai went missing, and that's why they began to look at videos for the area.
Don't you think it might be possible that the woman in red on the video, IF, IF IF not Sarai, could simply have been walking home or on her way to meet someone and has nothing to do with this case?

There are some urban inner city areas in many big cities where it's not a good idea to wander around alone and take pictures, people get suspicious, don't like it and may confront you and it won't be pleasant, to say the least.
It's not impossible that on the 20th or the 21st, in some area of the inner city that seemed OK to her because she's not a local, and she likes grafitti, and urban imagery, she took some pics, walked around, took more, and met up with someone who got suspicious and angry, or someone who thought she was someone else (who looked like her), and a tragedy ensued.

Prisons are filled with innocent people, especially of color, whose convictions are later overturned by DNA. Undercover cops in NYC have been mistaken for drug dealers, photographers, students and journalists have been taken for spies or CIA, not saying any such thing could happen in Turkey, as I don't know the culture, just pointing out the idea of mistaking someone for someone else and that the crime scene could have been moved and staged.

It could have also been an attempted rape or robbery and she got killed.

No powerful daddy's boy, no body doubles.

Lady in water, lady on video could be completely unrelated to Sarai. She could have been taken to the cave, and then killer/ tipster suggests the area because of intense media.
Just another possible scenario of many...

 

[EncyclopediaBrown]

quick dumb question - how easy and in what time frame would it take to get messages that were deleted off her phone? what if there was more contact we are not aware of? or maybe again it was just random. or maybe one of these IGers have a really good cheap rug contact.

 

[Fantazteko]

I was just suggesting jetlag as a possible factor for her failing to recognize hidden dangers in that area. Plus jetlag affects everybody differently, and the symptoms disappear slower in some people.

Her sense of danger could’ve been impaired or compromised somehow.

Not to mention preflight jitters since she was planning to board a plane later on that day. I’m deathly afraid of flying and know how my body reacts just a few days prior to my scheduled departure.

Her going there could have been due to anything, not necessarily coercion. People walk into dangerous spots willingly all the time, some people choose to visit haunted places and so on.

 

[Fantazteko]

Regarding the decoy theory, unless law enforcement or the killer knew that some damning evidence existed, I see no reason why such a diversion would even be attempted.

I could understand if there was video of Sarai and the suspect together on the 21st, because this would motivate the killer to distance himself from the murder. Even then, I think the killer would just flee rather than manufacture a falsehood.

Until now nobody seems to be saying that Sarai was seen with any suspicious characters on the day she disappeared, though I may have overlooked this.