I agree that the scenario of how exactly SP was able to attack MB has always confused me. To see someone dressed that way, and moving towards me, and holding any kind of 'weapon' would, IMO trigger every instinct to stay out of reach of any tools. I don't believe in the old Hollywood scenario, where the female stands frozen with fear as the giant gorilla menacingly approaches her, hands outstretched to grab her.
When someone is physically attacked, IMO, it's either that they've been outrun/ overpowered, or have been taken by surprise. MB wouldn't have been standing still, where someone could sneak up on her. So I always assumed SP was waiting around a corner and MB literally walked into him/her. But it seems, there was no corner.
So certainly, if she was shot from some distance, that would explain it, SP didn't need be hiding, ready to attack when they were within arms reach.
But if that was the case, why didn't someone targetting MB just shoot her as she was leaving her home at 4:30 am? No need for break ins and dressup and weather-conditional schemes.
It's also long bothered me that SP would break into the church and appear on video, when they couldn't be certain MB would even go into the church, in spite of the rain. What if she'd just unlocked the door, but not gone in until others arrived? The break in and video footage would be discovered, and IMO MB would've found a new place to excercise.
I think there is a tendency to assume that, because she was killed, SP somehow knew that would be the outcome. But IMO, that's not at all the case. Few people (maybe psychopaths) can be that confident that their plan will succeed, most people are riddled with uncertainty about even the most simple things in life, not to mention something they've never done before and could be imprisoned and executed for.