UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #3

[rogerthelodger]

SPECULATIVE SCENARIO ONE:
Corrie is waiting for his lift at 0324 (finishing time for clubs etc is 0330). Knowing that there is free parking and space, Corrie's prearranged lift parks their car adjacent to the bins prior to their start of work that night. Take a look at my previous post images. By the time they've finished work, stock taken, swept up, tidied up, cleared and walked to their car its going up towards 0350 just about when the bin lorry and CCTV masking agent has arrived. They get in and wait for Corrie to settle as he's worse for wear. They exit the bin area and pull over a few hundred yards away. The bin lorry overtakes them and is now on-route down Shortbrackland but the driver is stuck behind it (maybe for comfort) all the way to Barton Mills area where the driver is possibly accommodated.
This scenario suggests an inexperienced driver or someone who doesn't want to get caught drink driving hence the comfort comment.


SPECULATIVE SCENARIO 2:
Corrie is waiting for his prearranged lift at 0330. At 0350 just about when the bin lorry and CCTV masking agent has arrives, Corrie walks down Shortbrackland to look for his lift. He's missed by the CCTV as he's behind the the refuse vehicle. He finds his lift, enters the vehicle but takes a few moments to settle. The bin lorry overtakes them and is now on-route down Shortbrackland and the driver is stuck behind it for comfort all the way to Barton Mills area where the driver is accommodated.
This scenario also suggests an inexperienced driver or someone who doesn't want to get caught drink driving hence the comfort comment.
.

Why would someone pick there to park up for the evening?
if you work or live in the town you know these spaces are already allocated as such to residents/shops and secondly who parks in dark places when parking is freely available under lights and cameras in the town?
My son has a shop in town and no one who shouldn't park there does its a rule of thumb.
So assuming they did park there as suggested, why would they choose there to park?

 

[JamesKing]

I'd like to know how Uncle Tony tested whether a person could evade the cameras if walking. Did they have someone in the control room and someone else repeating the walk in all possible directions and under all possible rotations of the cameras or is there some electronic way to do it that doesn't need actual field testing?

I actually assume that they modelled the whole evenings CCTV sequence....but you know where assuming things gets you ! Nowhere !

Tony did reply to a specific question with regards to this subject.
His answer was "inaccurate, that's based on one camera".

A tab bizarre as the question was about the sequence and change overs of Cam09 and Cam34. One has a view directly into Short Brackland and the other a view down Brentgrovel Street which "just about" can see Short Brackland.

Given the fact that Cam09 (from what we have seen) has a limited view of all the alleyway AND the request from the family to help identify the Silver Car, which was parked a mere 60 foot from Cam09's position, then I can only assume that this camera has "limited capabilities".

However, it has been suggested that Corrie tripped and was jogging down the alley. I can see his head "bobbing" that suggests he was jogging, but I can't see "a full on trip". Maybe "unsteady" is a better term. So was this seen by Cam34 ?

If we understood (or if we were told) what was actually "not seen", then maybe we'd have a better understanding.

But "he vanished" and "it is impossible for him to leave without being seen" are terms which at best are misleading. Clearly he did leave and clearly he was unseen. Otherwise you wouldn't search Barton Mills, Mildenhall and routes up to Honington ! And you would not say "We believe he may have left in a car" which suggests a car was indeed seen.

 

[MidsummersDay]

Giving Corrie a way out
In one of the original interviews Tony has made he indicates that 'if he has gone awol its a storm in teacup.' From this interview the Family thought he may have thought whatever is weighing Corrie down it may be enough for him to bolt. What they didnt anticipate was a FB page gaining a following of over 60k people searching, praying, Nan's out with their dog's searching. Had FB not been started he could of come back with a slap on his wrists from his unit. A stern talk from Uncle Tony about forces commitment. Ect. The longer he left it the longer it was for him to come back. The story has gone from a storm in a teacup to terrorists to Rememberance Day. Nothing, so now people are asking questions. What if the power of social media painted the family into a corner where Corries behaviour is being questioned. So how would Corrie come back with 60 + k people not hating him for leading them on a merry way. A different slant on this terrible siruation.

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Canoe guy inNorthern England scenario...

 

[MidsummersDay]

Why would someone pick there to park up for the evening?
if you work or live in the town you know these spaces are already allocated as such to residents/shops and secondly who parks in dark places when parking is freely available under lights and cameras in the town?
My son has a shop in town and no one who shouldn't park there does its a rule of thumb.
So assuming they did park there as suggested, why would they choose there to park?

Easy egress from the area.

 

[JamesKing]

So actually we can't see anything OR anyone leaving EITHER the top of Short Brackland or the parking spot where the Silver Car was parked.

The reason maybe he went "unseen" by the cameras ....was "the cameras simply weren't looking". Establish that was not the case, which the family seem "100% on" and there is only one other solution.

That solution is, he never left.

Or rather, he left much later on Saturday and perhaps in a car or in the boot of a car.

 

[MidsummersDay]

Look at my superimposed images of the bin area. Note he correctly sized bin lorry and how it masks the vision of the CCTV allowing undetected egress in car or on foot from the area.This would be possible when the bin lorry arrived, during its turning phase, during its lifting phase and during its leaving phase. I would estimate a 10-15 minute window.

 

[Dcflag]

I still think that regardless of the blind spots in the immediate area one of the cameras in the surrounding areas will have picked up Corrie leaving, in a vehicle. Whether in a seat or the boot.

I see someone mentioned the possibilty of short brackland being used unseen because of the nature of the road (used for lorry types) so how can they say he didn't leave a short way on foot.

Tony is bloody clever in his wording and plays on people's automatic assumptions. He wasn't seen leaving on foot, that doesn't mean he didn't. If you could categorically rule out on foot through cctv you could also rule on or out in a vehicle.

I'm very much in the camp that there are several suspicious events caught on cctv that they are sitting on because it's not relevant for public to know. Without the Facebook page we would know even less, it's a missing persons case with appeals for witnesses and car drivers, nothing more.

Card sale are being kept very close and probably for very good reason. As someone else said earlier, when the details emerge I imagine it was be a very simple and very obvious sad set of circumstances that have lead to his disappearance (and sadly in my opinion his death but I'm very very open to hope this isn't the case)

 

[rogerthelodger]

Easy egress from the area.

So you are saying someone who was in one of the clubs has arranged to meet him there having left their car there all night and either coincidently or pre planned the exit from town was hidden by the dustcart as they left?

 

[missqwerty]

Tony is bloody clever in his wording and plays on people's automatic assumptions. He wasn't seen leaving on foot, that doesn't mean he didn't. If you could categorically rule out on foot through cctv you could also rule on or out in a vehicle.

He didn't say he wasn't seen leaving on foot though, he said if he left on foot he would have been seen. 2 very different things if you think about it.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Things just don't sit right with me, the family don't seam to be able to get the story straight , one says one thing then another contradicts what is said as if it's being made up as they go along and some one is lying,

I don't know about lying, but I suspect the family are somewhat deluded and in denial.

Obviously I'm not really following the stuff on Facebook as I'm not on that site, but the more I read the more I get the feeling that Corrie was recklessly impulsive, maybe out of control somewhat. More a loose cannon than a gunner.

I can very much understand JamesKing's comment some pages back that, lack of hard soldiering experience aside, Corrie wouldn't be taking a trip to Hereford any time soon. He just doesn't seem to have heard the word "discretion".

 

[JamesKing]

@Midsummer

But then the bin lorry would have seen a car leaving. Surely he'd think back and recall that on Tuesday/Wednesday when asked by police officers.

 

[Dcflag]

lets break it down into the most logical assumptions.

Logically, you wouldn't turn down a lift unless you had plans. You would sit outside and eat opposed to indoors in the warm without a good reason.

So we can assume he was waiting for a lift. The strange timings would indicate the lift wasn't from someone working. This could be local (so he should made a verbal agreement that night) or not so immediately local.

While waiting we can assume he didn't sleep much if he was still eating when sitting down and was awake/on his phone in the last half hour of the two hours. You could estimate maybe an hour of sleep? Assume broken as it's said people spoke to him, also just because he looks asleep doesn't mean he is. An hour of odd sleep doesn't suggest falling asleep accidentally for the night and more a conscious relaxing while time passes.

He waits until it's near time for the lift, decides he has time for a quick piss. Either he really needed to go (not enough on waking) or he was expecting a long enough journey that he wanted to go first.

He's picked up. Obviously cctv dictate she how this could have happened.

From whatever events have happened from then on I can only guess at what I would consider logical. If it were an accident the chances of covering your tracks completely are slim, after all if you were in your hometown and had to hide a body's on a moments notice that wouldn't be found where would you go? I would expect if the base is involved, yes they protect their own but if higher powers knew I'd imagine it would come out to the raf (not necessarily the public which could be why we're getting "vanished")

Or this was an intentional grab by someone who had some idea of what they were doing and where they were going afterwards.

 

[Dcflag]

He didn't say he wasn't seen leaving on foot though, he said if he left on foot he would have been seen. 2 very different things if you think about it.

I would say "if he left on foot he would have been seen" is even more vague. How can you possibly use such a vague statement to completely discount it?

 

[JamesKing]

If the family and the police a 100 percent sure "It is absolutely impossible for Corrie to leave the area he entered and be unseen by either Cam09 and/or Cam34"and they have modelled the sequence....

....then we're looking at a big "cocked up" police investigation !

If nothing moved in that area AND they saw everything, then why the hell didn't they keep on looking at the CCTV beyond 8.00am

The answer is.... we don't know the half of it !

 

[Dcflag]

So actually we can't see anything OR anyone leaving EITHER the top of Short Brackland or the parking spot where the Silver Car was parked.

The reason maybe he went "unseen" by the cameras ....was "the cameras simply weren't looking". Establish that was not the case, which the family seem "100% on" and there is only one other solution.

That solution is, he never left.

Or rather, he left much later on Saturday and perhaps in a car or in the boot of a car.

Surely you would expect DNA evidence if he has been attacked in the alley. To be left in a boot all night you'd want to make sure he wasn't getting up and making noise any time soon. Unless the residential properties are important.

I was led to believe these have been searched but perhaps thats another assumption made.

 

[Dcflag]

If the family and the police a 100 percent sure "It is absolutely impossible for Corrie to leave the area he entered and be unseen by either Cam09 and/or Cam34"and they have modelled the sequence....

....then we're looking at a big "cocked up" police investigation !

If nothing moved in that area AND they saw everything, then why the hell didn't they keep on looking at the CCTV beyond 8.00am

The answer is.... we don't know the half of it !

Absolutely. I'm going with "we don't know the half of it" the hooded man incident shows they have no interest in giving the public the full timeline of events captured on that cctv. For all we know several people and/or another vehicle could have been caught on cctv.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

So that means about 2500 are NOT resolved within a year - doesn't that sound like a lot?! 7 people each day (incl 3 or 4 kids) go missing in the UK and are still not found a year later? Why are we not busier here?!

Perhaps because we don't always post the cases as they come up? Maybe if we did more Brits would find their way here and the thing would snowball.

 

[c4nd1_83]

Also theres been absolutely NO suggestion from police or family that he may have arranged to meet someone.

I mean surely this would be the most possible scenario.

Other then them saying he went willingly and saying for a lift.

No suggestions of arranged to meet someone.

Maybe they know he would have arranged it and was hoping that this person would come forward and when they haven't the family have decided to focus media away from that so they dont scare off the person who he did meet.


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[missqwerty]

@DC flag

I just think the only confirmation we have that he wasn't seen leaving on foot was right at the beginning when the police were bumbling around. A couple of weeks later the MIT were brought in and analysed a load more cctv footage. Since then, the only comment about cctv is that one from Tony saying if he left on foot he would have been seen.

Maybe he wasn't seen, but maybe he was picked up in the MIT sweep and they just haven't released that info yet.

It's just my opinion obviously and I could be way off, but just because Tony said he would have been seen I wouldn't automatically take that to mean he wasn't.

 

[Pinkpuma]

The only reason you'd refuse a lift home in the early hours, when you're drunk, hungry and probably would prefer to get into a warm comfortable bed instead of slump in a doorway feeling quite cold, is that you've plans to meet someone.

There can be no other reason for a strong, fit, sociable man to refuse a lift.

Unless he was just hanging around to sober up a bit before driving home.