UK UK - Corrie McKeague, 23, Bury St Edmunds, 24 September 2016 #7

[JKLondon]

I cannot open Roger's pictures, any tips?

There were cars there when I went about 6-30pm and several people milling about, I felt uncomfortable taking photos tbh.
There is a car park opposite the door which is for staff of Cornhill walk, I took a photo of it anyway to give a clearer picture of the area but the Horseshoe I didn't take any of, it didn't seem right.

 

[Dcflag]

Haha I didn't say it was the most plausible scenario, just that it made more sense than most. That said, say Corrie interrupted something nefarious and/or got arsey with someone - one punch is all it takes to knock unconscious or even kill instantly. It would make sense that someone was on lookout while a car was fetched.

Equally it makes sense that he met someone he knew and the night ended really badly. Or ended so well Corrie decided to make it his new life.

:gaah: so many options still on the table. But "Occam's razor is a principle from philosophy. Suppose there exist two explanations for an occurrence. In this case the simpler one is usually better. Another way of saying it is that the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation is" (Wiki)

I would consider the occums razor here to be he met someone he knew and then.. fill in the blank. For me something accidental or unintentional makes the least assumptions. Although I understand everyone has different point sense of view. The drug angle makes the biggest assumption in my opinion.

There's been a documentary recently on one punch killers I'm yet to watch but I hear it's well made. In this instance though how likely is it that the person wouldn't just leave? If you know there's no cctv enough to conceal the crime surely you also know the best way of reducing your image on cctv is to just leave? It's interesting to consider, what makes someone conceal an accidental death like (for example) a one punch opposed to leaving the scene or calling the police?

I just think it's too much assumption to be considered plausible enough to be the most likely scenario.

 

[Dcflag]

What if 4 minute man was Corrie?

It's been confirmed many times by family that cctv has been viewed and identification techniques used (such as gait analysis, size and length of limbs etc) and that four minute lurker is not Corrie.

 

[Dcflag]

I cannot open Roger's pictures, any tips?

Wish I could help you there. But I've no idea! Hopefully Roger can help you

 

[calo44]

Hi!

It's my first post so please be kind

IMO I think Corrie stumbled across an 'unsavoury' character or characters in the horseshoe - drug use or deal - and an altercation took place. Something went very wrong, they temporarily hid Corrie and stepped back until 'help' arrived (hence the loiterer). Help arrives in the form of an accomplice in a car, they remove Corrie from the horseshoe following which....know one knows.

Welcome, Reaney! I originally had the same thought, even that the bin Lorry driver might have somehow been connected (why else would he be picking up trash at 3:40 in the morning)? Not so sure once they said the driver was cleared...

 

[Scorpio1]

He said the following in a radio/podcast interview:

"I think what's more likely is if this is against his will, this is either a person just ... who's psychologically, mentally unstable, or a sexual predator type person. That sort of circumstance. I mean it's of note that in the area where Corrie disappeared, there is a property that's reserved for rehabilitation, shall we say. And so some of the individuals that pass through that way have got certain histories. So there's a whole number of reasons why certain people may have been in that area. Y'know, Corrie may have walked around that corner and walked straight into a drug deal for all we know."

Link to transcript and the interview itself here.

Interesting bit when near the end tony says he doesn't know much about corries sexual preferences,

 

[mumkinton]

Midsummer, Sorry this site doesn't allow MP4 attachments so I can't show you a HQ version, but this is where to look at least: http://tinypic.com/r/2s00r3l/9

tinypic has squashed the filesize down so much it's practically impossible to see it behind the compression in that link.
You will likely need zoom capabilities and the ability to scroll frame by frame back and forth to see it shining there (from the original source video), so you can become adjusted to the flash on the window and the corresponding light on the ground by the tree, it's faint, but it's there, and it's perfectly timed with the window flash. But I don't need convincing. It's the lurker's phone IMO. This is the clearly the POI, the one they want identified, because they were lurking, not necessarily anything to do with Corrie, but the #1 witness at the least. That said, there's a possibility the lurker is a hooker (as I say tho related or not to corrie's disappearance), hence no-one coming forward to say it is or was them... ?

Do any of the locals know about any of this stuff in a local context? Is the Horseshoe an area you're likely to see nightcrawlers? (the cctv suggests yes)

For the record, as you said 4-6 months, I'm going with the next 96 hours myself.

Thanks for that Markymint! how did you capture the cctv video to apply the filters and can you improve the image of person outside Cornhill?

 

[Pinkpuma]

This is my first post too so hope I'm not repeating what has been said before.

I think it's important to look at the chain of events and think what is the most likely sequence of events. We know Corrie went out later than planned because he was on the phone to his brother. He got into town and went to a couple of bars looking for his mates and then went to Flex nightclub which is where they would normally go. Were his mates there? I don't think that has been stated. We don't know if he found them there, but we do know he was asked to leave; that was unplanned. He then follows a normal routine and gets something to eat. After eating a large amount of food and having had a fair amount to drink he feels sleepy and goes to sleep in Hughes doorway. This seems unusual behaviour but perhaps not surprising given the amount of food and drink he has consumed.

He then wakes, presumably because he gets a message on his phone and that wakes him up. What is the first thing he needs to do having had quite a bit to drink? I would say he is busting to have a wee. He can't do that in Hughes doorway, it's too public. So he trots down to the horseshoe area. He has a quick scan around, then sees it is a quiet and dark area to have a wee. He walks into the area and looks a little sheepish, maybe because he is going to have a wee in public.and tried to look casual, hands in pockets etc

Then something happens in the area. The most likely thing to me is he sees something or someone who doesn't want to be seen. As a few others have already posted, the most likely thing is a drug deal or someone waiting to make a deal. The person or persons doing the deal panic and Corrie is punched and rendered unconscious. Do they then put Corrie into one of the bins? I think it unlikely that a single person could put Corrie into one of those bins. Corrie weighs 85Kgs, which is a lot to lift by one person to the height of the bin. This would mean two people must have been involved. Is this when Corrie's phone dropped out of his pocket, which was then thrown into another bin, the recycling bin?

On the CCTV someone is seen leaving the area 4 minutes after Corrie went in. Was that person seen going into the area? If two people were involved then was anyone else seen entering the area on CCTV?. If it was a drug deal the people involved would turn up, do the deal and go, no hanging around. It would be arranged on pay as you go phones so difficult to trace.


So if we take what Uncle T says as fact that Corrie could not have left on foot, then it could have been a vehicle or one of the other bins. A question that has not been answered (I don't think) is when were the other bins emptied, and where are they emptied? Could Corrie have been in one on those bins and not been spotted when it was emptied?

Just my thoughts...

I agree with some of these theories Jonnie. Corrie could've well gone looking for a quiet area to pee and disturbed a drug deal. You make a good point of the person exiting the area not wanting to hang around if that's the case. I know there was no evidence of a altercation at the Horseshoe but unless he was bleeding outside the car there wouldn't be any. I would imagine there was more than one person there, and the more people the easier it would be to bundle him into a car. Before or after possibly harming him that is. Looking at the photos it seems the far corner is well hidden from the main path, especially with vehicles parked there and would be a perfect spot for any dodgy activities.
The only thing I don't go with is your suggestion of him possibly going in the bin, one for the reason you stated (difficulty lifting him) and the other being that it has been ruled out in the investigation, weight, forensics etc. It just seems far more likely his phone was thrown away by someone else. Also, if his phone fell out his pockets then what about his wallet and keys? He can't be traced by those so they're not as important to discard. The more we find out about the more convinced I am this is what has happened to him. Sickening thought though.

 

[TheTruthWillOut]

I don't think we'll ever know exactly what happened between Corrie going in to the horseshoe area and 4 minute man coming out. The key now, and one of the few things the family and Police seem to be on the same page about, is a car or cars. Both are keeping quiet on these now.

One thing I would like to know about 4 minute man is which way he left on foot? Was it down SB, past the Cornhill shopping centre or back toward Hughes/The Grapes? If the latter surely there is more CCTV of him?

 

[CoverMeCagney]

I would consider the occums razor here to be he met someone he knew and then.. fill in the blank. For me something accidental or unintentional makes the least assumptions. Although I understand everyone has different point sense of view. The drug angle makes the biggest assumption in my opinion.


I just think it's too much assumption to be considered plausible enough to be the most likely scenario.

Hey, I have no particular point of view, my mind changes on a daily if not hourly basis! I have seen reasoned and viable arguments for almost every scenario going so I'm not willing to stick to just one. And neither should anyone else unless they have insider info, in which case they should go to the police with it and get this case cracked.

 

[PilgrimsPrayer]

Again a quick clarification:
The rehabilitation property is on Lower Baxter Street, not on Short Brackland, it is subject to curfew.

I agree with the suggestion that a small scale drug deal, the sorts of which may be conducted in the relative open, would be unlikely to incur a kidnap attempt if stumbled upon.

The very nature of Bury st Edmunds is such that anything sex trade related is unlikely, especially that close to town.

I don't think Corrie was buying drugs himself because your "dealer" is unlikely to live 2 hours away, especially if you live a fairly closeted lifestyle of Airbase and Bury Town, so why would he wait? And with both a drugs/ paid for sex angle, are we really of the belief that he would rather spend his "taxi" money on such services rather than just go back to his dog etc.

The ever changing terminology and slowing of information leads me to suspect that this is a case of a young man panicking about information pertaining to either or a criminal act committed/ sex life revelation leaking to his family and employer, and as such has done what many of us would do at his age, run away from our troubles, however he didn't bank on the mumsnet brigade creating such noise.

 

[Dcflag]

I don't think we'll ever know exactly what happened between Corrie going in to the horseshoe area and 4 minute man coming out. The key now, and one of the few things the family and Police seem to be on the same page about, is a car or cars. Both are keeping quiet on these now.

One thing I would like to know about 4 minute man is which way he left on foot? Was it down SB, past the Cornhill shopping centre or back toward Hughes/The Grapes? If the latter surely there is more CCTV of him?

Back towards Hughes's I assume. I was under the impression four minute man is the lurker in running man footage

 

[calo44]

Would it help if we chronologically laid out our unanswered/un-discussed questions:

1 - why didn't Corrie find his friends in Bury that night? (Conflict? avoidance? Prior party?)
2 - who was Corrie's 3:08 text to and what did it really say? (Is "pic of he and Darroch sent to friend" really accurate?)
3 - when were the other bins in the horseshoe area picked up?
4 - if the "4 min man" was identified, did he/she provide any useful info?
5 - have the operators of the 4 vehicles in area been identified & questioned?
6 - have they identified the car seen going the wrong way in Bury that night?

other:
1 - where was Corrie's American friend that night, the one that he usually goes to Mama Mia's with?

 

[Dcflag]

Hey, I have no particular point of view, my mind changes on a daily if not hourly basis! I have seen reasoned and viable arguments for almost every scenario going so I'm not willing to stick to just one. And neither should anyone else unless they have insider info, in which case they should go to the police with it and get this case cracked.

I agree. Sorry I didn't mean to come across as being an idiot 😂 I was just hoping to try and think how logical these theories are and probability in comparison to one another.

It's okay to have a seemingly wild theory but like you said when you look at the assumptions you have to make to get to that point it might indicate whether it's plausible. Although stranger things have happened!

 

[MidsummersDay]

Welcome aboard Reaney. Possible but don't know of any evidence for this at present. This waiting for the update is doing my head in. So I have been looking right back starting from thread 1 because I remember seeing a map someone had posted on here much earlier that had the word "FLATS" across some of the buildings surrounding that area so am using this lull to see if I can find it. I've only got to page 22 on thread 1 so far. Can anyone remember seeing that or posting it? Its useful to go thru the thread anyway especially with the more detail we have now and it does seem there was a reluctance to issue the 03.24 cctv earlier in the case for whatever reason.

Eliminate the impossible and whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.

It was me that posted that image of the 'FLATS' along with all the others lol.

 

[Dcflag]

Again a quick clarification:
The rehabilitation property is on Lower Baxter Street, not on Short Brackland, it is subject to curfew.

I agree with the suggestion that a small scale drug deal, the sorts of which may be conducted in the relative open, would be unlikely to incur a kidnap attempt if stumbled upon.

The very nature of Bury st Edmunds is such that anything sex trade related is unlikely, especially that close to town.

I don't think Corrie was buying drugs himself because your "dealer" is unlikely to live 2 hours away, especially if you live a fairly closeted lifestyle of Airbase and Bury Town, so why would he wait? And with both a drugs/ paid for sex angle, are we really of the belief that he would rather spend his "taxi" money on such services rather than just go back to his dog etc.

The ever changing terminology and slowing of information leads me to suspect that this is a case of a young man panicking about information pertaining to either or a criminal act committed/ sex life revelation leaking to his family and employer, and as such has done what many of us would do at his age, run away from our troubles, however he didn't bank on the mumsnet brigade creating such noise.

I think this is one of the hardest theories to deconstruct. Because it doesn't rely on the probability of this assumption happening or that person being involved. It's very much about Corrie personally. If he has chosen for whatever reason (maybe ones you've listed or otherwise) to leave his life the only person who can say with any degree of certainty that it's possible is Corrie himself. After all every man is an island.

My only niggle (and this would be explained depending on the reasons for willingly leaving) is why stay away so long?

 

[Dcflag]

It was me that posted that image of the 'FLATS' along with all the others lol.

Ah I remember. In which case it seems not strictly true as isn't the back building a museum?

 

[PilgrimsPrayer]

The deconstruction comes from it still requiring a vehicular access, a potential car crash site on a fairly well used road, the destruction of any evidence pertaining to it.

What is he staying away from? Bury? Honington? His Mum? For sure, that doesn't mean he is AWOL from life.

I think this is one of the hardest theories to deconstruct. Because it doesn't rely on the probability of this assumption happening or that person being involved. It's very much about Corrie personally. If he has chosen for whatever reason (maybe ones you've listed or otherwise) to leave his life the only person who can say with any degree of certainty that it's possible is Corrie himself. After all every man is an island.

My only niggle (and this would be explained depending on the reasons for willingly leaving) is why stay away so long?

 

[calo44]

Hoping my family doesn't search my "history" on this iPad - but I did a search of "Bury St Edmunds Prostitutes" and there seem to be a few active links there. One even has In-calls and Out-calls. I know we had touched on that earlier, briefly, when discussing why "lurker" might be standing in the shadows at 3:40 am. (Forgive me for not posting links - I'll leave that search up to you)

 

[PilgrimsPrayer]

Not flats, Superdrug delivery and warehouse.

Ah I remember. In which case it seems not strictly true as isn't the back building a museum?