I've been following this thread since Libby went missing. I went to Hull University and still live relatively close by so I'm hoping i can be of some help.
The student halls you live in first year are either in a place called Cottingham which is 3.5 miles from the university - You have to bus in. Or you can live directly on the university campus which is ~20 min walk from there Libby lives now. In my opinion Libby wouldnt know the area she lives in now very well. As a second year she will only have lived there since mid-late September and there is a long Christmas break of 3-4 weeks,. The only reason she would have visited this area previously would have been on nights out to The Adelphi, The Welly, The Haworth, The Gardeners Arms etc. Therefore she could easily have got lost if she decided to start walking back drunk to find her friends/to go to another friends house. I got really lost myself once trying to get to the bus stop back to campus and I hadn't been drinking.
The halls of residence are really nice and you feels much safer. When I moved in to a student house near Libby we didn't feel safe in the area at all. My housemate worked in a hotel bar a 10 min walk from home and someone tried to mug her. After that she used to get walked home by a male member of staff of get a taxi even though it was such a short distance. We all hated her working late and worried about her safety.
The University has exams in January. I've just double checked and the start of term was 28th Jan. The reason The Shrugger said she was hugging everyone saying its nice to be back together is most likely because they wont have had a night out since before Christmas. In my house everyone returned at different times because of exams, some courses having more than others. No one ever did any studying at home over Christmas so it was cram time. The night was probably a celebration it was all over and a start to the new term - hence Libby drinking so much. I am super surprised she didn't get in The Welly. A trip advisory review of "If you want to get really drunk and not remember anything about yourself then welly is the place" describes it well so she must have been pretty much unable to walk at this point.
Most of the water near Libby house is very shallow and even though some of it is free flowing I don't think its deep enough to carry someone away.
The rest of this post is just my speculation really based on the facts...
It sounds like she left the phone at home or forgot it. I saw somewhere her housemate said if she had been without her phone before she had got in contact. In all honesty I several times at uni lost or forgot my phone. Maybe she purposely didnt take it if she'd lost them previously?
I don't believe either her or her housemate knew she was without keys. I lost my keys and locked myself out several times while at uni. I also on occasion did go out without them if I knew I was with my housemates. However, clearly her housemate didnt know she couldnt get in or she would have gone with her/give her the keys.
It would be common place to put a fried to worse for wear in a taxi from The Welly or the clubs around their home. Its not far and its a lot safer than walking. I think either her friend got the time wrong about her getting in the taxi (the police should have some CCTV to work this out) or something very strange happened. That road is not that busy at that time of night and even if she stopped for cash/to be sick it took her a long time to get home.
I dont think the CCTV footage of her on the bench will be released. Its could be very distressing for friends and family if Libby was in a mess to see this and not good for anyone.
My theories
- She got lost trying to make her way to her friends or someone she knows house (could be near the pond) and ended up in the water.
As the weather has warmed and the ponds been searched several times I feel she would have been found by now?
- She was abducted or taken by someone
I just find this unlikely too. I dont think the woman who heard screams will amount to anything and even though its not impossible I feel like she was on the whole in areas with some CCTV so this might have been spotted. Although I wouldnt feel safe personally in this area at that time of night.
- She went round the back of the house to try and get in through a window/another door and ended up in the drain
This feels the most likely to me but the water isnt that deep so surely it would have been frozen last week and she would have been found now? Same if she hid somewhere else with hyperthermia. If it was still moving then she could be in the humber by now and unfortunately never get found . I.
- Mental health related
I think this is a red herring and could potentially divert focus and why the family have asked for specific photos to be used.
Really stumped as to whats happened and it seems the police arent sure by he slow down in the case. All I can hope is she is found safe