Found Deceased UK - Nicola Bulley Last Seen Walking Dog Near River - St Michaels on Wyre (Lancashire), Jan 2023 #19

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Lancashire Police about to go lIVE on Facebook.

 
RIP Nicola. It’s been an interesting and really sad case. I imagine her family are relieved by the verdict and can begin to continue life without her.

I’d just like to highlight this particular piece of advice from the RNLI:

  • The RNLI’s Float to Live campaign urges people to tilt their head back, relax, try to breathe normally and spread yourself out. Such education may save the lives of other people who are unlucky enough to enter cold water
 
As speculated yesterday why phone was located on the bench -- hands free to put the harness on her dog.

11:23JAMIE LOPEZ

Dog harness​

Attention has now turned to the issue of the harness which was removed from Willow and found by the bench where Nicola's phone was. This has been the subject of speculation and conspiracy theories.

Asked why it would be removed, Paul said: "We would always take the harness off before going through the gate. Because she’s a springer she’s very erratic and into the bushes so anything that is on her that could get caught we used to take it off."

Asked why the harness was in the grass and the phone on bench, he replied: "When she got back to the bench she is still listening to a conference call. She must have put the phone on the bench and then gone to put the harness back on Willow.”
 
People can have their opinions but can we remember that Nicola was a mother, partner, sister, daughter and friend. She was loved by many and tragically died doing what so many of us do every day, a simple walk with her dog. May you rest in peace Nikki.
 
RIP Nicola

I hope the family can now grieve in peace - they came across really well in the inquest and they agreed with the evidence that it was a complete accident.
The inquest has brought back some of the feelings I had during the case. I can't imagine what it must have been like for the family to sit through all of this. I hope people stop speculating now and give them a break.
 
14:37Kelly-Ann Mills

Verdict expected shortly​

Dr James Adeley, senior coroner for Lancashire, is currently in the courtroom going through the evidence he has heard over the last few days.
He has remineded the hearing:
  • Nicola was last seen alive by fellow dog-walker Claire Chesholm at 9.10am
  • At 9.18am she adjusted the volume of her conference call
  • PC Keith Greenhalgh examined Nikki’s Fitbit device- it recorded steps in 15 minute segments. On January 27 she walked 4,548 steps between 8am and 9.30am. Between 9.15am and 9.30am she walked 273 steps. No further steps after 9.30am
  • At 9.22am the FitBit recorded a substantially increased heart rate
  • Penny Fletcher arrived at the bench at 9.33am. Nicola was nowhere to be seen but Willow was found and the dog’s harness was found between the bench and the river
  • Nicola was last seen alive at 9.10am, interacted with her phone at 9.18am and Mrs Fletcher found Willow at 9.33am. This provides a maximum window of time of 15 minutes when Nicola went into the river
  • The river bank had an “almost vertical drop”
  • At the base a stone wall had been built to prevent further erosion and this provided no footholds or handholds. If you fell here you would certainly enter the water
  • The opposite bank, 20 metres away, was also a difficult site to climb out
  • On January 27 the Environment Agency said the flow over the weir was 0.49 metres. When police did a reconstruction the weir height was almost half this but even at that level it took a body over the weir
  • The flow on the river on the day Nicola died made it “almost impossible” to get out
  • Nicola would have been unable to reach the bottom of the river until she had travelled for “at least 40 metres” downstream
  • Two world leading experts, Dr Paddy Morgan and Professor Mike Tipton, said Nicola would have been overwhelmed by cold water shock after falling into the water
  • The water temperature was 3.6C would have elicited a powerful response in Nicola - not related to body size but the rapid cooling of the skin
  • Nicola's clothing would not have slowed her response to cold water shock
  • Adrenalin is released immediately which can cause a person’s heart to stop instantaneously
  • If this doesn’t occur there is an overwhelming urge to gasp. If Nicola’s head was underwater she could have inhaled two litres of water which would have been a lethal dose
  • There was a good chance Nicola's first breath was underwater. Even if was above the water, if she then became submerged, an increased heart rate and blood rate would have used oxygen at a rate where she would have lost consciousness within 48 seconds. However, this was highly optimistic and it would more likely have been 30 seconds with increasingly impaired consciousness
  • Such was the shock of immersion Nicola would have been unable to stand up or float
  • She would have died before reaching the first point in the river where she could have touched the bottom
  • Nikki had no alcohol in her bloodstream at the time of her death
  • The cause of death was drowning
  • The RNLI’s Float to Live campaign urges people to tilt their head back, relax, try to breathe normally and spread yourself out. Such education may save the lives of other people who are unlucky enough to enter cold water
  • On the possible involvement of third parties: all of the witnesses who were in the area did not note anyone suspicious in the area of the field where Nicola was walking
  • Det Supt Rebecca Smith said CCTV of three of the four entry points to the field shows nobody acting unusually. CCTV from the fourth point only showed one direction but this also showed nobody
  • Police contacted the owners of 700 cars which passed the road and examined dashcam footage. Nothing unusual was spotted
  • Dr Armour said there was no evidence Nicola was assaulted nor that a third-party was involved
  • Although two women heard a scream it was not of a nature which caused concern and was some distance from where Nicola was. At the time they were heard Nicola was probably already dead
His verdict is expected imminently.
A sad, unsurvivable accident....

I am heartened however to the lengths LE went to to investigate this fully. It paints a very clear picture. She was alive.... and less than a minute later, she wasn't.

May her family find comfort in the fullness of her life, that that last sad minute can fade...

Jmo
 
The location of the harness is a clue to what may have happened -- perhaps aa she attempted to put the harness on the dog, the dog ran, shedding the harness as it ran to the water, she may have in fact screamed... but I wonder if she didn't use her last earthly strength to save her dog from falling in the river, catapulting herself into the same.

Jmo
 
I have no problem with whatever verdict a highly experienced coroner decides to deliver. There’s just one thing puzzling me:
When contacted with the news that Nicola had disappeared, her partner reportedly responded with the words “She’s struggling“. Yet in his testimony he emphasised how positive she was feeling about the future. Perhaps both can be true but it does seem strange.

Given the statement by the partner (Paul) about NB "struggling" was actually a quote from witness Sue Jones of what she heard from witness Ann-Marie Fletcher, I caution taking the statement out of context. In other words, this was Chinese whispers where it follows this was likely not all that was said by Paul in the call. IMO, one needs to hear the entire conversation to truly understand the context of Paul's comment. He very well could have also shared positive attributes about NB with Ann-Marie that were not repeated.

15:28JAMIE LOPEZ

"She is struggling"​

Sue then came across Anne-Marie Fletcher, Penny’s daughter-in-law, who recognised Nicola from the picture and called the school. Anne-Marie managed to get hold of Paul on the phone. Sue said: “Anne-Marie was on the phone to Paul and when she came off the phone she said Paul had said ‘she is struggling’.” Paul arrived at the scene around 10 minutes later.

Sue said she then put the harness on Willow. “She was ok with [the harness] and I started to walk the dog towards the metal gate and the dog wouldn’t move,” Sue said. “When the dog turned round there was a retractable lead hanging down and when I moved that she was fine.”
 
The rise in popularity of real missing people cases being treated as entertainment on social media has never been more obvious than it was during this case. All too often people wanted a good story rather than the truth. I'm sorry her family and friends had to endure that on top of the loss of a much loved mother, daughter, sister and friend. We will never know exactly what happened in those final moments, but we know enough - IMO.
 
Thank goodness for this verdict; cold comfort for those affected but it may allay some of the more torturous thoughts they’re bound to have had.

I hope everybody leaves this family alone to get on with their lives now. Sometimes I think the moderation on websleuths is overly strict but in this case I’m glad of it. MOO

Edited to add: re the “struggling” comment, I’m inclined to believe this may be a slightly revisionist comment by the witness, after all, the same witness claimed her daughter-in-law remarked it was Nikki’s dog & that “Nikki was missing” when that hadn’t been established at that time.
 
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Thank goodness for this verdict; cold comfort for those affected but it may allay some of the more torturous thoughts they’re bound to have had.

I hope everybody leaves this family alone to get on with their lives now. Sometimes I think the moderation on websleuths is overly strict but in this case I’m glad of it. MOO
It's an important verdict for her children.
They won't be tainted by misappropriated prejudice now.
 
I'm not saying it's the case here, but there is a thing called confirmation bias where if you have an opinion or view you tend (and it's typically unconsciously) look for evidence that supports that view and disregard evidence that goes against it.

e.g. point 5, I believe every fitbit uses a 3 axis accelerometer to detect motion and it will then look for movements that are vaguely like the motion it expects from a person walking and adds a step. These are by no means perfect (the newer models are a bit better), here is an example of what one will register as steps:

Nothing is mentioned about how many etc, it's not unreasonable to expect it to measure the odd step or two as her motion from entering the water slows down, I wouldn't be surprised to be honest if the last step(s) to be measured is when she went over the weir.
That's a very good point. My concern on that would be why did it then stop at 9.30. If it can record steps when she was in the water producing motion movements when deceased, then surely this would continue after 9.30.The other aspect that concerns me re the Fitbit data is why did they only ask and report the highest recorded heartbeat (9.22),surely the most important time is the last recorded heartbeat ignoring the random irregular ones explained away. If they could come out and state the last recorded beats were at 9.22 then I'd very happily accept their explanation
 
he moment Ms Bulley’s dog walk ended in tragedy has now been narrowed down to just four minutes as new analysis by detectives showed “no activity” on her iPhone after 9.18am. Her FitBit watch showed her heart rate peaked at 9.22am. It stopped recording any more of the 4,548 steps she walked that day at 9.30am after an update which took in the previous quarter of an hour.

Dr James Adeley, senior coroner for Lancashire, said: “The entry to the water is likely to be after 9.18am and before 9.30am, but very likely before 9.22am.”

(respectfully bolded and enlarged by me for focus)


I am so happy for Nicola's family that they can start to move on and put Nicola to rest. Hopefully this will end the online speculation that causes her family so much pain.

I did want to clear up one point that had some people concerned about the timeline, specifically the timing of NB's last steps recorded on her FitBit. The bolded point in the quote above explain that NB's last steps weren't necessarily taken at 9:30, but rather they were taken sometime between 9:15 and 9:30. They were taken in the 15 minute window ending at 9:30, that was uploaded 9:30. It was stated by LE that she didn't take any steps after 9:30 and some people erroneously took this to mean that her last steps were taken precisely at 9:30. (BTW: This step timing would exclude any fight/struggle happening at 9:35.)

The fact that the step data is collected in blocks of time, not showing exactly when they were taken within that block of time, came up in the Murdaugh trial.
 
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