Found Deceased UT - Michael Cavallari, 30, Grand County, 27 Nov 2015

[ninij9]

We have no other tire tracks right? He's out there. Only way he's not out there is if he walked back to the road, then got into a second vehicle, or if the vehicle was set in motion empty as others suggested. Either way, without a second vehicle, he must be out there somewhere.

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[SeaEclipse]

If you look on Kristin's instagram, she has posted a picture of herself & Michael as kids with the message: "appreciate all the concern, thoughts, and prayers that have been extended to me and my family. We remain hopeful and I will share any news that we receive. I have such gratitude for all those that have shared their support."

<modsnips>

 

[kdg411]

https://www.ksl.com/?sid=37639285&nid=148

The Missing Persons of America website indicates Cavallari, who is roughly 5-foot-11, of thin build, with brown hair and a beard, might have been trying to get to Illinois.

It is only speculation that he was heading to Illinois.

http://www.missingpersonsofamerica.com/2015/12/california-man-missing-car-found.html

Michael's car was found abandoned on the side of the road near Green River, Utah off highway 70 on Nov. 27. The car was left running and the air bag was deployed. Authorities state that it appeared the car hit a rock and ended up in a wash and that Michael's credit card was used in Monticello, and surveillance video shows him there around 3:30 a.m.

 

[wendybtn]

Did Michael get caught in a blizzard and make a wrong turn? Then get out and get lost? It's hard to piece things together, as news reports are conflicting.

I drove I70 westbound on Nov 27. During the afternoon, from Vail to Grand Junction, it was cloudy and okay. Around 5:00 pm, a huge wet blizzard hit Grand Junction, coming from the northwest (Salt Lake City). I pulled over around 5:30 pm near Fruita, at the rest stop, wondering if I should wait things out. By then the snow was a horizontal, high-wind mess. Really windy. Still, I got back on I70 around 6:15 pm, continued west, and at the Colorado/Utah state line it was getting really slick. Then I70, in southeastern Utah, became a snow-covered, slick, pitch-dark, windy mess. There were about seven cars in front of me, going about 20 - 35 mph, in a one-lane convoy as road lines were covered with snow. The north-halves of the few interstate signs were caked with snow. A couple cars pulled over on what could be interpreted as an I70 shoulder and turned their hazard lights on. I70 was a pretty scary drive on the night of Nov 27!

The news reports are conflicting. Some say Michael's Honda was five miles south of I70, off exit 175 (Floy exit) and down Ruby Ranch road, which is a "no services" ranch road. It is a desolate, narrow road which goes over sagebrush BLM public lands and ends about 15 miles later above the Green River's Labyrinth Canyon. Why in the heck would he take that exit? Was he planning on some solo primitive camping in the freezing desert? Was he trying to turn back to exit 182 (Monticello/Moab hwy 191) to get out of the bad weather? But why was he going west when he was going to Illinois? And who would've found his car on Nov 27, as very very few people take that road? Maybe some reports are incorrect and the Honda was found just at the end of exit 175, before desolate Ruby Ranch Road turns south. It'd be nice if it was clear his Honda was at exit 175, or a frickin' five miles down Ruby Ranch road!

Also, what time was Michael at the Monticello gas station? It's one hour north to Moab, then 1/2 hour to exit 182, leading onto I70. The time would give a good indication if he was caught in the blizzard. If he was in Monticello in the morning, then maybe he traveled before the blizzard hit. But still - why did he head west, back to California, when he was supposed to be heading to Illinois? And why did he take exit 175 if it was before the blizzard? Why would he get off there? If he was in Monticello in the afternoon, then he may have got caught in the blizzard, got off the interstate, and could not get back on. But still - why did he go so far down Ruby Ranch Road?

Some news reports state the car was running, the air-bag deployed, and the computer and phone still inside. So maybe the Honda skidded, hit a rock, Michael got confused, exited the vehicle, wandered, and sadly froze. However, that area is relatively flat/sagebrushy and with so many of Grand County Sheriff's and Moab police officers looking around, one would think Michael would've been found after ten days. And there was fresh snow which would show footprints!

If someone picked him up, then I doubt it was five miles down that desolate exit 175 road - there is so little traffic! So maybe the accident was just at exit 175, and an I70 traveler picked him up. But then that doesn't make sense, as Michael would've contacted someone by now.

This is really strange.

Maybe he just got turned around and mixed up. It has happened before on these closed service roads west of the Rockies in winter.

 

[wendybtn]

Michael’s car, a 2014 Honda Civic, was found abandoned on the side of the road near Green River, UT off highway 70; 100 feet from the Floy Wash Road, five miles from exit 175 on the freeway between Green River and Crescent Junction

http://lostnmissing.org/missing/mcavallari/

Can't even find Floy Wash Road on the map yet.

Adding:
Found this.

http://www.blm.gov/ut/st/en/fo/moab/recreation/motorized_routes/0.html

To reach White Wash Sand Dunes, drive 13 miles east of Green River on Interstate 70. Take
Ranch Exit 173 to the south. This county road is known locally as the Floy Wash Road. (This exit is seven miles west of U.S. Highway 191.)

That is why a GPS is not always helpful in more isolated areas.

 

[SCHMAE]

Bizarre. This is a very rough area in winter. How long could the car have been running and not out of gas ?

 

[LietKynes]

I agree. He wasn't in the car when it hit the embankment. Either somebody did something to him or he staged his own disappearance.

RSBM

Obviously I've never staged my own disappearance ; but I've watched some movies and some "Dateline" shows, etc., so -- would there be a sign in the car of the accelerator being pushed down by a rock-- or tied down ?
Otherwise, how far can a car go if just set in 'neutral' and given a push by people or another vehicle ?
Still hoping he faked his own disappearance like E.K. did.

The thought of evildoers kidnapping or murdering him makes my blood run cold. I hate people like that with a cold rage-- not the type of hate that eats-- just want them to get caught and dealt with.
:moo:

 

[ClaireNC]

RSBM

Obviously I've never staged my own disappearance ; but I've watched some movies and some "Dateline" shows, etc., so -- would there be a sign in the car of the accelerator being pushed down by a rock-- or tied down ?
Otherwise, how far can a car go if just set in 'neutral' and given a push by people or another vehicle ?
Still hoping he faked his own disappearance like E.K. did.

The thought of evildoers kidnapping or murdering him makes my blood run cold. I hate people like that with a cold rage-- not the type of hate that eats-- just want them to get caught and dealt with.
:moo:

No need to use a rock or anything to weigh down the accelerator if your car has cruise control.

 

[CosmicLatte]

To me, it looks like the car was set into motion without a driver in it, and it continued in a straight line until it hit the embankment. I think whatever happened to him happened before the accident. Moo

Exactly what I was going to say.

Bizarre. This is a very rough area in winter. How long could the car have been running and not out of gas ?

Well, it's a 2014 Honda Civic, and he got gas at 3:30 that morning according to that MissingPersons article. Mathematics time! Get ready for some numbers...

A 2014 Honda Civic has a 13.2-gallon tank. I'm going to assume the tank was full when he left the Monticello gas station.
A 2014 Honda Civic gets up to 41 MPG highway. I'm going to assume he was getting about 36 mpg, because car companies aren't always truthful, and that number seems more reasonable based on online reviews and estimates.
A 2014 Honda Civic has either a 1.8L or a 2.4L engine, and while I lean more towards him having a 1.8L, because that's normal, I'll call it a 2.0L engine for ease of numbers.
On a cold day, an idling 2.0L engine is going to burn about .3 gallons per hour, give or take. I ran some math on my own but someone did a nice calculation elsewhere that I'll link to at the bottom.
The distance between the Monticello gas station and the location where his car was found is about 95 miles.
So!
Starting fuel = 13.2 gallons
Driving from the gas station to Floy wash = 95miles / 36mpg = 2.6 gallons
Approx maxiumum gas in the tank upon arrival at Floy Wash = 10.6 gallons
Idling at that spot = 10.6 gallons / .3 gph = approx 35 hours maxiumum before the car would run out of fuel and the engine would die.
If I'm less generous, and we assume the car was burning more fuel (.35gph) due to it having been cold and Michael likely having the air conditioning set pretty high, that gives closer to 30 hours before the car would run out of fuel.
If I'm really pessimistic, and we assume it was extremely cold (though the images of Michael at the gas station don't seem to reflect that) and the car was burning .4gph for some ungodly reason, the car would have 26 hours to run out.

tl;dr If the car was still running when it was found, it could have been sitting in that spot for a maxiumum of 35 hours and a minimum of 26 hours. However, since the call came into the sheriff's office ON the 27th, the car probably still had a good half-tank of gas.

source for some math: https://www.quora.com/How-much-gas-does-a-car-burn-per-hour-while-idling

 

[Plumeria5]

I was talking to my husband about how barren the area is and we were wondering if there would be cell service where his car was found?
Could he have called for help if he wanted to?

 

[savagewoman]

Video form GMA this morning.

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/reality-star-kristin-cavallaris-brother-reported-missing-35620031

I wish they won't wait on dogs and drones like they stated - later in the week. I would assume that had been done already.

 

[ClaireNC]

Thanks CosmicLatte! I was also curious about how long the car would run, but was too lazy to do the math. With your math skills and Spanish translations, you are very helpful to have around.

So he was at the gas station which was 95 miles away at 3:30 am. Assuming it would take 1 1/2 to 2 hours to get to Floy Wash, that would mean the car was abandoned sometime after 5:00 am. LE could get a pretty good estimate of when by calculating how much gas was left in the tank. Has it been reported what time the car was found?

 

[ClaireNC]

I was talking to my husband about how barren the area is and we were wondering if there would be cell service where his car was found?
Could he have called for help if he wanted to?

Cell reception is spotty in southeast Utah. I posted a map of cell towers in the area last night. He left his phone and laptop in the car.

 

[AnaTeresa]

Very mysterious. I hope he's found soon.

 

[CosmicLatte]

Thanks CosmicLatte! I was also curious about how long the car would run, but was too lazy to do the math. With your math skills and Spanish translations, you are very helpful to have around.

So he was at the gas station which was 95 miles away at 3:30 am. Assuming it would take 1 1/2 to 2 hours to get to Floy Wash, that would mean the car was abandoned sometime after 5:00 am. LE could get a pretty good estimate of when by calculating how much gas was left in the tank. Has it been reported what time the car was found?

Haha, no problem! Like I've said before, I might as well use the skills I have to help people. Re: your question, I don't know when the car was found, but I assume it had to have been before that huge snowstorm Cattlekate mentioned - I think she said it started at around 5pm?

 

[Coquette]

If you look on Kristin's instagram, she has posted a picture of herself & Michael as kids with the message: "appreciate all the concern, thoughts, and prayers that have been extended to me and my family. We remain hopeful and I will share any news that we receive. I have such gratitude for all those that have shared their support."

This is a rumor only, but: In the comments on the instagram post is someone who has posted the same very specific information repeatedly about the events leading to Michael's disappearance. If true, it explains why the family was likely not initially worried that he was really missing and why they may have wanted to keep it out of the media.

ETA: Another poster, while quasi-disputing the characterization of the poster referred to above, refers to Michael's "troubles." So I'm guessing he may have drug and/or alcohol issues. Speculation only.

I'm not seeing those comments. They must have been deleted?

 

[Sophie Valentine]

Has it been reported when he left California? Or when he was seen at the gas station. Note that Monticello is south of the interstate. What was he doing there? Was he touring around the dessert on his way or driving straight to Chicago?

This article says he was at the convenience store at 3:30 am.

I wonder if he purchased anything besides gas?

http://www.missingpersonsofamerica.com/2015/12/california-man-missing-car-found.html

 

[SCHMAE]

Exactly what I was going to say.



Well, it's a 2014 Honda Civic, and he got gas at 3:30 that morning according to that MissingPersons article. Mathematics time! Get ready for some numbers...

A 2014 Honda Civic has a 13.2-gallon tank. I'm going to assume the tank was full when he left the Monticello gas station.
A 2014 Honda Civic gets up to 41 MPG highway. I'm going to assume he was getting about 36 mpg, because car companies aren't always truthful, and that number seems more reasonable based on online reviews and estimates.
A 2014 Honda Civic has either a 1.8L or a 2.4L engine, and while I lean more towards him having a 1.8L, because that's normal, I'll call it a 2.0L engine for ease of numbers.
On a cold day, an idling 2.0L engine is going to burn about .3 gallons per hour, give or take. I ran some math on my own but someone did a nice calculation elsewhere that I'll link to at the bottom.
The distance between the Monticello gas station and the location where his car was found is about 95 miles.
So!
Starting fuel = 13.2 gallons
Driving from the gas station to Floy wash = 95miles / 36mpg = 2.6 gallons
Approx maxiumum gas in the tank upon arrival at Floy Wash = 10.6 gallons
Idling at that spot = 10.6 gallons / .3 gph = approx 35 hours maxiumum before the car would run out of fuel and the engine would die.
If I'm less generous, and we assume the car was burning more fuel (.35gph) due to it having been cold and Michael likely having the air conditioning set pretty high, that gives closer to 30 hours before the car would run out of fuel.
If I'm really pessimistic, and we assume it was extremely cold (though the images of Michael at the gas station don't seem to reflect that) and the car was burning .4gph for some ungodly reason, the car would have 26 hours to run out.

tl;dr If the car was still running when it was found, it could have been sitting in that spot for a maxiumum of 35 hours and a minimum of 26 hours. However, since the call came into the sheriff's office ON the 27th, the car probably still had a good half-tank of gas.

source for some math: https://www.quora.com/How-much-gas-does-a-car-burn-per-hour-while-idling

:loveyou: Thank you !

 

[Plumeria5]

Has it been reported when he left California? Or when he was seen at the gas station. Note that Monticello is south of the interstate. What was he doing there? Was he touring around the dessert on his way or driving straight to Chicago?

Good question. After going through Monticello did he turn right instead of left and ended up going in a circle trying to get back to the interstate causing him to backtrack? Was his car going towards or away from the interstate when it was found?

 

[angelainwi]

Methamphetamine induced psychosis.... Or manic episode.... Would have him delusional and wandering aimlessly in the desert. My colleague is working with a family now with similar bizarre situation -- but, luckily, their son was found in time, albeit buck naked and faced down in a ditch, hypothermic and in the middle of nowhere. Sadly, it happens.....