2020 Hurricane Season Starting Early, "High Activity" Expected This Year

[anneg]

Tropical Depression Eleven

NHC Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone. While this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than any strengthening. This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few
hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 kt.

By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding mid-level dry air from mixing near the center. Gradually warming SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further intensification through about 2-3 days. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5 as it traverses the hostile environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA corrected-consensus mean.

More at link. Hope this one will fizzle.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Oh my. More fun to come.

Tropical Tidbits
The tropics are heating up. Watching 2 tropical waves this week: The 1st will bring rain to Lesser Antilles today, potentially developing as it moves through the Caribbean. The 2nd is farther away, closer to Africa, but is likely to develop & approach the Caribbean in a few days.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Two Areas to Watch

System 1
The first system, dubbed Invest 97L, will arrive in the Lesser Antilles later Monday, bringing some locally heavy rain to parts of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands through early Tuesday. Its fast movement should prevent tropical development in the near-term future. This system will be watched a bit more closely once it reaches the central and western Caribbean during the second half of this week. A slower movement and more favorable upper-level winds might give it a chance to slowly organize into a tropical depression by that time.

System 2
A second area to watch is a tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa. No land areas will be affected by this system as it tracks through the tropical Atlantic over the next few days. Conditions in the atmosphere and ocean could allow for development later this week as it tracks toward the central Atlantic. This system may arrive in the Lesser Antilles by Friday.

Two Areas to Watch in the Atlantic For Tropical Development as Hurricane Season Heads Toward Peak | The Weather Channel

Tropical activity usually increases in the Atlantic by late August as oceanic and atmospheric conditions become most favorable for hurricane development. The peak activity occurs around Sept. 10.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tonight's video on 97L and 98L.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=3513457175340165

 

[anneg]

ETA: National Hurricane Center 5-day tropical outlook graphic:

 

[JerseyGirl]

Hurricane center tracks 2 tropical waves heading for Caribbean with rising chances to develop

Both waves are located in the Atlantic but forecast to move into the Caribbean Sea in the next five days during which chances are good for tropical formation.

The NHC gives (#1) that system a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and a 60% chance within the next five days.

Better chances are in play for a second tropical wave farther east in the Atlantic. Located 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, the wave has produced a large area of disorganized showers, forecast to move west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph in the next few days and interact with another system creating a large low pressure area.

The NHC gives that system a 60% chance of formation in the next two days and a 90% chance within the next five days.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Caribbean is starting to crank out some serious rain events.

U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands -www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Thirteen

Elsewhere on this Thursday monrning , a tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is located over the central Caribbean Sea. The associated showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized, and satellite imagery suggests that the circulation is becoming better defined. If these development trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form today or tonight as the system approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and five days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance system later today.

Also, a tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Africa coast. This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. It has a low (20 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and medium (40 percent) chance during the next five days. www.hurricanes.gov

 

[Lato]

southern Louisiana here and preparing for 13 and 14 to come up to the coast....
we are already stocked for supplies, but we will go to gas station and bank later today.....would love not to face these weather systems with everything that is already happening in our lives.....
Thinking of all of you.....hugs, Lato

edit: #13 is now named Laura. www.nola.com

 

[SA55]

southern Louisiana here and preparing for 13 and 14 to come up to the coast....
we are already stocked for supplies, but we will go to gas station and bank later today.....would love not to face these weather systems with everything that is already happening in our lives.....
Thinking of all of you.....hugs, Lato

edit: #13 is now named Laura. www.nola.com

Stay safe please, keep us updated on your situation.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Those along the west coastline of the GOM will hopefully have a rain event and not a hurricane. Tropical Tidbits puts out a nightly video that is really good. I would recommend you watch it. It is on Facebook, YouTube and his website. Plan ahead to get to higher ground.

Tropical Tidbits

TD14 is located north of Honduras this morning, and remains weak, though a well-defined center of circulation is now evident on satellite imagery and recon data. If deep thunderstorms can develop over this center later today or tomorrow, we will likely see intensification of the storm as it approaches the coastline of Mexico Saturday night, where a hurricane watch has been issued. How strong TD14 is at this point will be important for determining how strong it will be in the Gulf of Mexico, where it's northwest track is expected to take it toward Texas or Louisiana around Tuesday. It's too early to know the details of how TD14 will impact the U.S. and where those impacts will occur. Have a hurricane plan of action ready to go just in case.

 

[PayrollNerd]

This is the one I will be watching closely. I'm an hour south of Tampa on the west coast of FL. My youngest lives a few miles from me and my oldest is another hour south, down near Charlotte Harbor. Even a Cat 1 hurricane brings so much rain that we are at risk of flooding. Tampa generally will back flush their sewer system just prior to a storm. They are the lightening capital of the world and not that far above sea level.

Tropical Tidbits
TD13 has become Tropical Storm #Laura. It remains only loosely organized, and how much it can organize through Saturday will determine much about its long-term future. For now, heavy rain is expected in the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola this weekend. After that, how strong Laura is and whether it passes over Hispaniola will be key to how strong it may be near Cuba and Florida early next week. Stay tuned - have a hurricane plan of action just in case.

 

[MaryG12]

It's the least wonderful time of the year...

Tropical Storm Laura path shifts, but still Florida threat; could join TD 14 as hurricanes in Gulf next week

 

[JerseyGirl]

It's the least wonderful time of the year...

Tropical Storm Laura path shifts, but still Florida threat; could join TD 14 as hurricanes in Gulf next week

Tropical Storm Laura formed Friday morning with a projected path shifting farther south, but still a threat to both South Florida by Monday and the Panhandle by next week.

 

[MimosaMornings]

southern Louisiana here and preparing for 13 and 14 to come up to the coast....
we are already stocked for supplies, but we will go to gas station and bank later today.....would love not to face these weather systems with everything that is already happening in our lives.....
Thinking of all of you.....hugs, Lato

edit: #13 is now named Laura. www.nola.com

Stay safe!
The flooding is more of a concern, are cleaning out drainage ditches making sure water can flow freely without trash, tall weeds, etc.

 

[Knitty]

Ugh. I hate hurricanes. Laura is, so far, pointing right at my house. Everybody get ready to stay safe.

 

[MaryG12]

The gas tank is full, will have to pick up a few extra provisions tomorrow at Publix.

We're all set over here. Everyone else in Laura's path, stay safe!

 

[Gardenista]

Bryan Norcross

48m ·


EVENING TROPICS UPDATE: Tropical Storm Laura is still very disorganized as it tracks over the northeastern Caribbean islands. Heavy rain and gusty winds are expected on there, but the storm is not likely to significantly strengthen. The condition of the circulation when is gets to the vicinity of South Florida on Monday is still an open question, but indications favor it NOT being a hurricane. Still very gusty tropical squalls seem likely. Here's the update

 

[Knitty]

The gas tank is full, will have to pick up a few extra provisions tomorrow at Publix.

We're all set over here. Everyone else in Laura's path, stay safe!

Publix has Hurricanes BOGO this week only.

I need to pick up doggy sedative. One of mine (the one in my profile, actually) is super scared of even regular small storms. He has taught us which bathroom is best to hide in, though.

 

[MimosaMornings]

Why One Expert Predicts a Major Hurricane Hitting Houston Would Be “America’s Chernobyl”

Pandemic storm prep: What Houstonians need to know as Gulf systems approach

 

[PayrollNerd]

Why One Expert Predicts a Major Hurricane Hitting Houston Would Be “America’s Chernobyl”

Pandemic storm prep: What Houstonians need to know as Gulf systems approach

If both of these storms land in the western GOM, I predict lots of people blowing them off because of the “it’s only a Cat 1” mentality. People in general want to believe the wind warnings and completely gloss over the flood warnings. I really wish the meteorologists would publicize the wave height coming ashore, the water depth a mile inland, the force of the water on a concrete building and wooden home. Those type details paint a much scarier mental picture. The wind warnings are just not scary enough for people to get off their butts and leave.