Canada, Greenland, Mexico, etc - USA Tariffs / Trade War commencing March 2025 #4

[Yellowbelly]

• The Trump administration's new tariffs will likely mean higher prices for household staples such as coffee, toilet paper and bananas.
• https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-banana-coffee-toilet-paper-prices-could-rise.html

If some bloke posting on the internet (me futher up the thread) can work out that putting import tariffs onto an agricultural commodity like coffee that you can't grow yourself is the height of stupidity, what excuse do the geniuses running this administration have.

 

[Trooper]

If some bloke posting on the internet (me futher up the thread) can work out that putting import tariffs onto an agricultural commodity like coffee that you can't grow yourself is the height of stupidity, what excuse do the geniuses running this administration have.

and toilet paper is a necessity.. .... one could argue coffee is a choice, but not the TP

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Coffee is a necessity for me

 

[Yellowbelly]

In Britain, Liz Truss was elevated to the Prime Ministership, by the Conservative Party, she being the leader of that Party at the time ,after Boris Johnson tripped up one too many times for the Conservative Party to swallow . He had to go and in came Liz Truss.

She lasted 43 days, I think it was. People said they had lettuces that lasted longer, but how she blotted her copybook was, she suddenly implemented a whacky type , or form, of economics that ,in one day , wiped the English pound off the board and into the gutter, costing the Brits about a trillion pounds ,, AND it increased the cost of Government lending.. she cut taxes on businesses and limited energy prices, and cut regulations.. all in all, it was a disaster, an easily foreseen disaster, and a disaster that will take generations to fix, ....... She had to go, too.

I see that Trump has wiped , in two days, 2.5 trillion , thats TRiLLION dollars off the stock market. The market has a sort of brake that comes into play once it drops 7% in a day...the thing shuts down, no one can trade or buy, it is done to save people from themselves, actually.. .. a 15 minute shutdown automatically kicks in. It makes people, theoretically , stop and take a deep breath and think things thru.... Yesterday it got to 6%.....

I am wondering how long it is going to take before the Republican party bites the bullet on Trump.. . .. when Trump is gone, the Republicans are going to have to spend years, and years, trying to repair their brand... it took 60 years for the Republicans to make a comeback after the Smoot - Hawley tariff debacle.......

Let's remind ourselves of the result of the presidential election that followed the last time that a Republican president raised tariffs to this sort of level.

1932 United States presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SouthAussie]

Stephen Miran is an economist who now chairs Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.

He published a paper back in November 2024 called "A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System".

It seems to be the playbook for what is going on (which I discovered by reading the below linked article in The Atlantic). By playbook I don't mean the 'method' of the tariffs, but the concept.


It is a very risky strategy, which Stephen Miran admits in the conclusion of his paper ....
There is a path by which the Trump Administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit, but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences.

The Atlantic article also highlights the risks ......
Even the core premise underlying the theory—that a weaker dollar is the key to reviving American manufacturing—is shaky at best. Almost every rich country, not just America, has seen a sharp manufacturing decline in recent decades, suggesting that the trend is about much more than the relative strength or weakness of a single currency.

“It’s one thing if a plan makes sense in theory but not in practice,” Steven Kamin, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute and the former director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve, told me. “This one doesn’t even add up in theory.”


This is The Atlantic article - which is a much easier read than Stephen Miran's long paper.
The Wild Trump Theory Making the Rounds on Wall Street - QAnon for tariffs

This is Stephen Miran's paper.
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System

 

[SouthAussie]

Another article in The Atlantic .... it essentially is saying that Trump's actions with the tariffs, and the resulting price increases throughout the US, may thwart a rise in his authoritarianism.
Because authoritarianism requires the authoritarian leader to be popular to gain that position. And the harm to people's paycheck/lifestyle/savings will not be popular.


Why didn’t anyone around Trump talk him out of this mistake? Because the second Trump administration has dedicated itself to filtering out the kinds of advisers who thwarted some of his most authoritarian first-term instincts, as well as his most economically dangerous ones.

In this atmosphere, questioning Trump’s instincts is seen as a form of disloyalty, and Trump has made painfully evident what awaits the disloyal.

The Good News About Trump’s Tariffs

 

[TootsieFootsie]

DBM

 

[Trooper]

JP Morgan predicts US recession and job losses this year due to Trump’s new tariffs

JP Morgan has warned that the US could face a recession this year, mainly due to new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. The bank also expects unemployment to rise, as concerns grow over the broader economic impact of the tariff plan unveiled on 2 April.

www.firstpost.com

When JP Morgan makes these kind of statements, it isn't warning, of what might occur, it's a forecast of what will occur.

JP Morgan has warned that the US could face a recession this year, mainly due to new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. The bank also expects unemployment to rise, as concerns grow over the broader economic impact of the tariff plan unveiled on 2 April.​

In a note to investors, the bank’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, said the American economy is likely to shrink under the pressure of these tariffs. He also predicted that the unemployment rate could rise to 5.3 per cent, according to a report by The Hill

 

[Trooper]

Another article in The Atlantic .... it essentially is saying that Trump's actions with the tariffs, and the resulting price increases throughout the US, may thwart a rise in his authoritarianism.
Because authoritarianism requires the authoritarian leader to be popular to gain that position. And the harm to people's paycheck/lifestyle/savings will not be popular.


Why didn’t anyone around Trump talk him out of this mistake? Because the second Trump administration has dedicated itself to filtering out the kinds of advisers who thwarted some of his most authoritarian first-term instincts, as well as his most economically dangerous ones.

In this atmosphere, questioning Trump’s instincts is seen as a form of disloyalty, and Trump has made painfully evident what awaits the disloyal.

The Good News About Trump’s Tariffs

It is very unfortunate for the USA that Trump put a very delicate operation in the rabbity hands of 41st United States Secretary of Commerce. Howard Lutnik.,.. if ever a clever guy was needed in this position, it is now. .. a real handicap with Lutnik in the drivers seat.... an example of the IQ level at the Commerce section...

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[iamshadow21]

and toilet paper is a necessity.. .... one could argue coffee is a choice, but not the TP

Bracing myself for new articles on 'family cloths' turning up again. Major 2020 flashbacks.

MOO

 

[musicaljoke]

I'm amazed that the Trump tariffs have flipped the Canadian election upside down. Mark Carney's Liberal Party were on the verge of being wiped out, but now polls are showing it winning a majority government.

Mark Carney’s Liberals consolidate lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, polls suggest

Canadians aren't tied to a political party for life. They look at the party platform and their leaders and vote accordingly. I'm sure that I've voted for each of the four main parties during my lifetime. This time around, the Liberals are coming across as the best prepared to deal with the current international economic turmoil. They are also the party most likely to provide economic support for those most affected by the tariffs.

The nation needs an experienced and knowledgable leader who needs to incorporate the best proposals from all the political parties, so I prefer a minority government. However, Carney has already implemented the NDP proposal to drop the taxes on new vehicles hit by tariffs. That was a good idea and a good example of how the parties need to work together. Why tax vehicles a second time when tariffs have already been collected.

 

[Kemug]

Well, unlike most people it seems, I can take or leave coffee. So no coffee won't worry me. And my stints doing field archaeology in the Middle East enlightened me as to what people used for toilet paper in ancient times - potshards, ie bits of broken pottery. Known affectionately as poo-ware. I don't think our plumbing system will be compatible though, so we might have to do some digging in the backyard. Sorry for those of you in units!!

 

[musicaljoke]

Another article in The Atlantic .... it essentially is saying that Trump's actions with the tariffs, and the resulting price increases throughout the US, may thwart a rise in his authoritarianism.
Because authoritarianism requires the authoritarian leader to be popular to gain that position. And the harm to people's paycheck/lifestyle/savings will not be popular.


Why didn’t anyone around Trump talk him out of this mistake? Because the second Trump administration has dedicated itself to filtering out the kinds of advisers who thwarted some of his most authoritarian first-term instincts, as well as his most economically dangerous ones.

In this atmosphere, questioning Trump’s instincts is seen as a form of disloyalty, and Trump has made painfully evident what awaits the disloyal.

The Good News About Trump’s Tariffs

The fear of losing a potential authoritarian position is only a concern if the leader plans to have a fair and free election for the next term. I don't believe Trump has any such plans for his next term in office. He doesn't care what the people think.

 

[Yellowbelly]

Stephen Miran is an economist who now chairs Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.

He published a paper back in November 2024 called "A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System".

It seems to be the playbook for what is going on (which I discovered by reading the below linked article in The Atlantic). By playbook I don't mean the 'method' of the tariffs, but the concept.


It is a very risky strategy, which Stephen Miran admits in the conclusion of his paper ....
There is a path by which the Trump Administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit, but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences.

The Atlantic article also highlights the risks ......
Even the core premise underlying the theory—that a weaker dollar is the key to reviving American manufacturing—is shaky at best. Almost every rich country, not just America, has seen a sharp manufacturing decline in recent decades, suggesting that the trend is about much more than the relative strength or weakness of a single currency.

“It’s one thing if a plan makes sense in theory but not in practice,” Steven Kamin, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute and the former director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve, told me. “This one doesn’t even add up in theory.”


This is The Atlantic article - which is a much easier read than Stephen Miran's long paper.
The Wild Trump Theory Making the Rounds on Wall Street - QAnon for tariffs

This is Stephen Miran's paper.
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System

"and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences."

All these, of course, being Trump's hallmarks!

 

[SouthAussie]

The fear of losing a potential authoritarian position is only a concern if the leader plans to have a fair and free election for the next term. I don't believe Trump has any such plans for his next term in office. He doesn't care what the people think.

Agreed. The only pathway away from that might be if he becomes so unpopular among the govt and judiciary.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

It's starting.

US consumers rush to buy big-ticket items before Trump's tariffs kick in

U.S. consumers are rushing to buy big-ticket items before President Donald Trump's tariffs kick in

www.boston.com

US consumers rush to buy big-ticket items before Trump’s tariffs kick in​

 

[TootsieFootsie]

https://thehill.com/business/5233534-consumers-shopping-donald-trump-tariff-prices/

Shopping spree? Consumers rush to buy goods ahead of Trump tariffs​

 

[detective.moon]

As it happened: Donald Trump's election and first 100 days

This live page brought you coverage of the 2024 US election and Donald Trump's first 100 days (or so). If you want to read from the start, tap on the "oldest/latest" tab below.

news.sky.com

• protests against trump planned in every US state today
• netanyahu (israels PM) will be the first foreign leader to discuss the tariffs in person with trump, on monday

question to the americans in this thread, are you planning to stock up on goods and/or protest today?

 

[Lilibet]

You’ll either think I’ve drunk some bizarre kool-aid or you’ll see things a little differently by the time you finish reading this. Have fun! Apologies for the length.

The economy is suddenly a hot mess. This is not happening by accident or because Trump is stupid about tariffs (he is). Follow the money. Who benefits when the economy collapses? The billionaires who can buy up failed businesses cheap. This is planned destruction of the economy, educational system, federal bureaucracy, courts, etc so an autocracy can be put in place. Trump is surrounded by people who are moving things in that direction. “Move fast and break things.”

Look at the people who are involved. Do a little digging into J.D. Vance, his mentor Peter Thiel who financed his Senate campaign and introduced him to Trump.

JD Vance owes almost everything to Peter Thiel, a pro-Trump billionaire and "New Right" ideologue - Salon.com

Peter Thiel has been supporting JD Vance since before he entered politics

www.salon.com

Their beliefs echo those of Curtis Yarvin, a philosophical force in Silicon Valley. More names…David Sacks, Trump’s AI and crypto czar. Marc Andreessen—And while Andreessen’s role in the Trump White House is unofficial, The Washington Post reported in January 2025 that the executive “has been quietly and successfully recruiting candidates for positions across Trump’s Washington.” And of course we can’t forget Elon Musk. These tech bros are all intertwined and are seeking power.

This short Time Magazine article provides an introduction and is quite unnerving.

What We Must Understand About the Dark Enlightenment Movement

The “Dark Enlightenment” movement and Curtis Yarvin have curried favor with tech executives in recent years, writes Ed Simon.

time.com

Quoting:
Yarvin has become a kind of official philosopher for tech leaders like PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel and Mosaic founder Marc Andreessen. Not unlike the Futurists, Yarvin advocates for replacing democracy with a kind of techno-feudal state—for the government to be run like a corporation, with the president as its “CEO.” This new system is elitist—“humans fit into dominance-submission structures” Yarvin wrote in 2008; and it’s authoritarian—“If Americans want to change their government, they’re going to have to get over their dictator phobia,” he said in 2012. There are shades of Yarvin’s philosophy in Thiel’s 2009 essay for the Cato Institute, where he wrote “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.”
BBM
——————-
I know it sounds like a crazy conspiracy theory, but there are a lot of smart people writing about tnis.

Rachel Maddow— Rachel Maddow sounds alarm on JD Vance's pro-dictatorship influences

'Reboot' Revealed: Elon Musk's CEO-Dictator Playbook

In 2022, one of Peter Thiel's favorite thinkers envisioned a second Trump Administration in which the federal government would be run by a “CEO”

www.thenerdreich.com

We are witnessing the methodical implementation of a long-planned strategy to transform American democracy into corporate autocracy. The playbook was written in plain sight and is now being followed step by step. Some dismiss the Yarvins of the world as unhinged nuts, but that's the point. These guys, with their bizarre and dangerous ideas, have gotten very far in 2025. Just look at the news.
BBM
Yarvin pitched his vision as a fictional or unlikely scenario. Unfortunately, it now appears to be our new reality. The press's failure to connect these dots isn't just a journalistic oversight — it's a critical missed warning about the systematicdismantling of democratic governance. By the time most Americans understand what's happening, the "reboot" – the destruction of government – may already be complete.
bbm

Paul Krugman is Wrong

Why don't liberal pundits understand what's happening?

danielpinchbeck.substack.com

One of the main architects of this descent into chaos is Peter Thiel. Thiel, along with his network of billionaire fellow travelers deeply embedded in the tech and crypto world, are among the key beneficiaries of Trump-era chaos. While Trump himself seems to act impulsively and without clear vision, he is actually the perfect instrument: A battering ram opening the gates for a new elite order and the fleecing of the U.S. populace who will no longer have functional institutions to protect them from fraud or corruption. The unpredictability of Trump’s tariffs make them even more effective weapons for weakening the foundations of liberal capitalism
BBM
JMO

 

[otto]

I'm amazed that the Trump tariffs have flipped the Canadian election upside down. Mark Carney's Liberal Party were on the verge of being wiped out, but now polls are showing it winning a majority government.

Mark Carney’s Liberals consolidate lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, polls suggest

Pre-tariffs, the election was based on priorities for Canada, such as consumer carbon tax and housing. Post-tariffs, Canadians want protection from the USA. Carney was able to pivot and respond well to national concerns, while Poilievre kept on kicking the same tin can.

Poilievre said "make Canada great again". He singled out little Suzy who lives in no-place Canada and has hardship, so he's going to fix that hardship with new financial initiatives. He mimics Trump's Congress message when Trump singled out little Sandra (or some other name), whose privacy was violated online so Trump will fix it. For years Poilievre said he will get rid of the consumer carbon tax. Carney did that within minutes of being sworn in as Prime Minister.

Poilievre imitates Trump, Carney deflates Poilievre. Canadians see that Poilievre is unable to pivot and respond to threats against Canada. Carney responds to specific concerns. Lifelong Conservatives are leaning towards Carney for that reason. The election is focused on the leader, not the candidate or the party.

Both candidates were raised and educated in Alberta.

image: Poll Tracker