Canada, Greenland, Mexico, etc - USA Tariffs / Trade War commencing March 2025 #4

[otto]

Not coming up for me.

Is it one of the datasets that Musk eliminated from public access?

 

[Mo Thuairim]

California wine is really popular in Ireland. Many people prefer it to the old world European styles. But we also import a huge amount of new world wines from Chile, and also Australia, NZ, Argentina and South Africa, so I guess they will have to fill that niche if it comes to that.

Bourbons like Jack Daniel's and Jim Beam are also pretty popular here and not really comparable in taste to Irish whiskey. I think a younger demographic prefers bourbon. Also most Irish whiskey is aged in bourbon barrels so not sure what will happen there. Is wood exempt for now? I believe Irish whiskey can also be aged in port wine or sherry barrels if they do go tit for tat with tariffs down the line.

Edit: Apologies to Americans, I believe Jack Daniel's is a Tennessee whiskey not a bourbon.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

The oil price falling probably isn't that good for the USA overall as it's an net oil exporter.

List of countries by oil exports - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Not to mention an indicator of likely global recession.

 

[Yellowbelly]

Trade deficit is so easily explained, but Trump refuses to see it. The trade deficit with Canada is a result of the USA needing Canada oil. Eliminate the oil, the deficit disappears. There is an explanation for all deficits. The most obvious is that 340 million people in the USA are massive consumers and they want stuff that is produced elsewhere. Eliminate the disposable product mentality, deficit disappears.

USA government arithmetic seems to omit critical datasets in all their calculations.

Stripping Canada's oil exports out of the trade figures doesn't just eliminate America's trade deficit, it turns it on its head

Last year the USA had a $63 billion overall trade deficit with Canada. Once you take oil out of the equation, the USA had a $50.9 billion trade **surplus** with Canada!

To my mind the whole thing is completely mad. Who in their right mind would start a trade war with a country with which they have a massive non-oil trade surplus!

Market minute: U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada excluding oil

The oil trade between the two countries is a function of geographical proximity, efficiency, cost and infrastructure concerns.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

Can anyone else access this government website? It's saying unavailable for me.

Wine, Beer and Spirits

www.fas.usda.gov

It’s there for me.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

California wine is really popular in Ireland. Many people prefer it to the old world European styles. But we also import a huge amount of new world wines from Chile, and also Australia, NZ, Argentina and South Africa, so I guess they will have to fill that niche if it comes to that.

That's interesting. Majestic, which I think is the largest of the UK wine etc warehouses in the UK, has a small section for Californian wine in its stores but its very small compared to the shelf space given over to the other New World wines. I think the problem with some Old World wines (and I'm thinking of Rioja here) is that they can be hideously over-oaked (which is also a problem I tend to find with many Australian wines).

Majestic for those not familiar with it: https://www.majestic.co.uk/

Bourbons like Jack Daniel's and Jim Beam are also pretty popular here and not really comparable in taste to Irish whiskey. I think a younger demographic prefers bourbon. Also most Irish whiskey is aged in bourbon barrels so not sure what will happen there. Is wood exempt for now? I believe Irish whiskey can also be aged in port wine or sherry barrels if they do go tit for tat with tariffs down the line.

I'm not a whisk(e)y drinker so will take your word for it on their respective tastes and the preferences of younger people. Do you think this is a genuine preference for the taste or a response to advertising?

If Bourbon barrels become difficult to come by, it might be worth considering Madeira barrels alongside port and sherry ones.

Incidentally, one small UK artisan coffee roaster ages some of its green coffee beans in bourbon or whisky barrels during the autumn. It's a regular seasonal offering with a good boozy kick.

 

[detective.moon]

the perspective of a dutch economist about opportunities that are now created for other countries. it reminds me of the saying to “never waste a good crisis”

According to De Geus, there is now a de facto war economy. And there are also opportunities for Amsterdam. "You can of course bring a lot of talent here at the moment. I remember that with Brexit we drove through London with vans - Minister Ollongren did the same at the time - with the message ‘come and work in Amsterdam’ if you are in a bank. We have to do that in the U.S. now too."

"There are a lot of people who are fired or afraid of the system or who want to leave America at all. From universities but also from intelligence agencies. All that knowledge you can bring here now. So we have to open the gates like crazy and really see this as an opportunity. Of course, it's almost ironic that America was created in the image of Amsterdam in the golden age. Tolerant, a liberal economy where a lot of immigration was possible. That was the picture the Founding Fathers mirrored. In America, that ends now. And for it to return to Amsterdam again would of course be beautiful irony."

Grote verliezen op Beursplein 5: "Amsterdam moet profiteren van handelsoorlog met VS"

Grote verliezen op Beursplein 5: "Amsterdam moet profiteren van handelsoorlog met VS"

www.at5.nl

 

[Mo Thuairim]

That's interesting. Majestic, which I think is the largest of the UK wine etc warehouses in the UK, has a small section for Californian wine in its stores but its very small compared to the shelf space given over to the other New World wines. I think the problem with some Old World wines (and I'm thinking of Rioja here) is that they can be hideously over-oaked (which is also a problem I tend to find with many Australian wines).

Majestic for those not familiar with it: https://www.majestic.co.uk/

I'm not a whisk(e)y drinker so will take your word for it on their respective tastes and the preferences of younger people. Do you think this is a genuine preference for the taste or a response to advertising?

If Bourbon barrels become difficult to come by, it might be worth considering Madeira barrels alongside port and sherry ones.

Incidentally, one small UK artisan coffee roaster ages some of its green coffee beans in bourbon or whisky barrels during the autumn. It's a regular seasonal offering with a good boozy kick.

On the whiskey, I don't personally like or drink any of them but would recognise the taste difference. I think Jack Daniel's etc have very good brand awareness and marketing, but American whiskeys are probably smoother.than Irish whiskey (open to correction here) and are often mixed with sodas here. Scotch is very distinctive and smoky.

Yes I think Spanish Rioja is the most popular European wine in Ireland but some dislike oaked wines. Chardonnay, Sauv Blanc, Zinfandel and Pinot Noir from California are widely available here but we buy more Chilean wine than anything else.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

On a completely different tack, I wonder whether all of this is going to deter companies from listing on the NYSE or NASDAQ. There has been a drift of certain types of companies (tech, biotech etc) away from listing in London and to a lesser extent other European exchanges in favour of NY, but maybe some of these decisions will now be reconsidered, at least for the next few years.

 

[musicaljoke]

Canada was also one of the founder signatories to the CPTPP so had already chosen to align its economic future with Asia-Pac.

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)​

The Indo-Pacific is now the world’s leading region of economic growth, offering big opportunities for trade and expansion. Canadian businesses can get ahead of the global competition by using the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)—a free trade agreement between Canada and 10 other countries in the Indo-Pacific: Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

 

[otto]

On April 9, the USA will add a 20% tariff to EU wine, beer, spirits. The USA imports €13bn ($143bn USD) EU product, and exports $1.42bn to the EU. The USA government import tax equates to roughly $2.6bn, paid by USA consumers (assuming the tariff is added to the purchase price). Will USA consumers pay $24 for a $20 bottle of French wine? Probably. Anyone who normally spends $40 for French wine will probably grumble and pay $48.

EU 20% tax on 1.42bn is symbolic compared to USA 20% tax on $143bn.

If the EU responds with an equal 20% reciprocal tariff on wine, beer, spirits, the USA will increase the tariff to 200%. I think the EU should respond with the reciprocal tariff - call Trump's bluff. Consumers will not let this happen without a big reaction.

Although EU producers want the EU to de-escalate the situation, I think that means that the EU should accept the USA tariff and do nothing. That's not an option either, as it allows the USA government to dictate to other countries via coercive threats.

"European wine and spirits brands, which sold more than €13bn worth of products in the United States in 2024, are urging the European Commission to de-escalate tensions with the US administration, who has said that it aims to impose a 200% tax on European wines and spirits imports.
...

For Europe, at least, the US market is essential. According to the International Trade Center, American imports of beverages and spirits from Europe totaled €13.1bn in 2024, including €5.2bn worth of wine. The US accounts for nearly 20% of total European wine exports, while exports of spirits, amounting to €5.1bn last year, represent 22% of total European exports in this category, with the remainder of sales largely consisting of beer."

Wines, spirits, cosmetics... European luxury brands brace for a trade war

European wine and spirits brands, which sold more than €13bn worth of products in the United States in 2024, are urging the European Commission...-wine-spirits

www.formesdeluxe.com

 

[otto]

Stripping Canada's oil exports out of the trade figures doesn't just eliminate America's trade deficit, it turns it on its head

Last year the USA had a $63 billion overall trade deficit with Canada. Once you take oil out of the equation, the USA had a $50.9 billion trade **surplus** with Canada!

To my mind the whole thing is completely mad. Who in their right mind would start a trade war with a country with which they have a massive non-oil trade surplus!

Market minute: U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada excluding oil

The oil trade between the two countries is a function of geographical proximity, efficiency, cost and infrastructure concerns.

realeconomy.rsmus.com

Canadians have been saying this since Trump started the war with Canada but, sadly, so many in the USA believe Trump propaganda.

Trump started with the $63bn deficit (oil purchase), exaggerated until it was a $250bn deficit. He then replaced the word "trade deficit" with "subsidy". Today, he boldly states that the USA subsidizes Canada in the amount of $250bn, and no one blinks. USA news outlets broadcast this false information and at no time follow up with facts. It's mind-boggling to see the USA government manipulate the population with propaganda.

 

[otto]

the perspective of a dutch economist about opportunities that are now created for other countries. it reminds me of the saying to “never waste a good crisis”

According to De Geus, there is now a de facto war economy. And there are also opportunities for Amsterdam. "You can of course bring a lot of talent here at the moment. I remember that with Brexit we drove through London with vans - Minister Ollongren did the same at the time - with the message ‘come and work in Amsterdam’ if you are in a bank. We have to do that in the U.S. now too."

"There are a lot of people who are fired or afraid of the system or who want to leave America at all. From universities but also from intelligence agencies. All that knowledge you can bring here now. So we have to open the gates like crazy and really see this as an opportunity. Of course, it's almost ironic that America was created in the image of Amsterdam in the golden age. Tolerant, a liberal economy where a lot of immigration was possible. That was the picture the Founding Fathers mirrored. In America, that ends now. And for it to return to Amsterdam again would of course be beautiful irony."

Grote verliezen op Beursplein 5: "Amsterdam moet profiteren van handelsoorlog met VS"

Grote verliezen op Beursplein 5: "Amsterdam moet profiteren van handelsoorlog met VS"

www.at5.nl

Canada/CBC had an article over the weekend with the same silver-lining message. Canadian universities and research agencies welcome people who are silenced in the USA by the USA government.

 

[Herat]

UK Prime Minister Starmer aligning with Singapore Prime Minister Wong on promoting free and open trade

"The Prime Minister updated Prime Minister Wong on his calls with other international leaders over the weekend, and they both agreed that it is vital likeminded partners work together to maintain global economic stability.

Free and open trade is fundamental, and the leaders agreed to strengthen collaboration between the UK and Singapore through bilateral agreements including the UK-Singapore Strategic Partnership, with ASEAN and through trading blocs such as the Comprehensive Trans-Pacific Partnership"

PM call with Prime Minister Wong of Singapore: 7 April 2025

Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to the Prime Minister of Singapore Lawrence Wong today.

www.gov.uk

 

[Yellowbelly]

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)​

The Indo-Pacific is now the world’s leading region of economic growth, offering big opportunities for trade and expansion. Canadian businesses can get ahead of the global competition by using the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)—a free trade agreement between Canada and 10 other countries in the Indo-Pacific: Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

Which the UK is also a member of now, of course. If some way could be found to bring about a CPTPP-EU deal, you'd then have virtually the entire developed world sans the USA in one free trade area.

 

[Herat]

Which the UK is also a member of now, of course. If some way could be found to bring about a CPTPP-EU deal, you'd then have virtually the entire developed world sans the USA in one free trade area.

Yes. One giant step for free trade in the free world.

 

[Herat]

GAWD, the huge Orange Fart is at it now

Tariffs, Netanyahu, Afghanistan, Iran, Houthis, Military, Missiles, Aircraft.

Distraction, distraction, veiled and implied threats of military action and violence.

This is not what the US needs to be hearing at this point.

"Our country is being ripped off: 30 years of being ripped off by Japan, China" Oh, now on to EU a plot against the US.

Paranoia free flight of words, much?

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Which the UK is also a member of now, of course. If some way could be found to bring about a CPTPP-EU deal, you'd then have virtually the entire developed world sans the USA in one free trade area.

It's very difficult to imagine that happening in practice as the EU is generally protectionist rather than in favour of free trade. There are so many competing and entrenched interests between the member states that the bloc as a whole struggles to reach agreement with other parties. For example:

Australia and European Union at an impasse over free trade deal despite visit to break deadlock

A free trade deal between Australia and the EU is at a standstill after the trade minister walks away from negotiations in Brussels without an agreement.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Herat]

What a massive pack of lies he is spouting. Lies after lies after boasts and blah blah, blah.

 

[ilovewings]

Canadians have been saying this since Trump started the war with Canada but, sadly, so many in the USA believe Trump propaganda.

Trump started with the $63bn deficit (oil purchase), exaggerated until it was a $250bn deficit. He then replaced the word "trade deficit" with "subsidy". Today, he boldly states that the USA subsidizes Canada in the amount of $250bn, and no one blinks. USA news outlets broadcast this false information and at no time follow up with facts. It's mind-boggling to see the USA government manipulate the population with propaganda.

The media has let Trump lies go on and on for years without corrections. what else is new?