Canada - USA Trade War commencing March 2025 #3

[Charlot123]

I actually think it might be Vance.

imo

Agree.

 

[Charlot123]

I adore him and was my first choice in the initial primary longgggggggggggggggggg ago, before they started dropping out. Loved listening to his common sense, ah so many like him I HOPE can do the same. He started.

He was an interesting choice but I crossed him out after he voted “nay” on Sanders-Klobuchar’s bill. That voting btw is what moved me from “Democrats” to “independents”. So, to me he is a regular politician like any other, but nowadays he’s emerging like the epitome of sanity. We should get bullets from his speech. He is a good orator but of course no one can listen for 13 hours.

 

[otto]

I can't get over the fact that Republicans think it's funny to taunt people. I can't even think of an animal that is that simplistic in their humour and intellectual ability. I can imagine those same people taunting a person with cerebral palsy trying to cross the street before the light changes and having a good laugh when they get hit by a truck. I just don't get it.

 

[Herat]

I can't get over the fact that Republicans think it's funny to taunt people. I can't even think of an animal that is that simplistic in their humour and intellectual ability. I can imagine those same people taunting a person with cerebral palsy trying to cross the street before the light changes and having a good laugh when they get hit by a truck. I just don't get it.

Trump and his ilk have continuously adopted open ridicule, degradation, and physical intimidation as not only acceptable, but favored methods to gain advantage in negotiation.

His methods have now eclipsed respectable diplomacy and careful, considered collegial dealings with people of opposing thoughts.

 

[Mo Thuairim]

Global cost of 2025 tariff war could reach $1.4tn, report finds​

A full-blown trade war between the US and its trading partners could cost $1.4tn, a new report shows.

Economists at Aston Business School have modelled a range of potential scenarios, including the possibility that America is hit by full global retaliation after it announces new tariffs against other countries.

That full-scale trade conflict could result in a $1.4 trillion global welfare loss, Aston has calculated.

The report explains that tariff escalation leads to higher prices, reduced competitiveness, and fragmented supply chains, as we saw in 2018 in the US-China trade war.

It says:

Donald Trump’s 2025 return to power has unleashed a gale of protectionism, reshaping global trade within weeks.

They outline six scenarios, from the first wave of tariffs already announced against Canada, Mexico and China to a full-blown trade war.

Here are the key findings:

1. US initial tariffs: US prices rise 2.7% and real GDP per capita declines 0.9%. Welfare declines in Canada by 3.2% and Mexico by 5%.
2. Retaliation by Canada, Mexico and China: US loss deepens to 1.1%, welfare declines in Canada by 5.1% and Mexico by 7.1%.
3. US imposes 25% tariffs on EU goods: Sharp transatlantic trade contraction, EU production disruptions, US welfare declines 1.5%.
4. EU retaliates with 25% tariff on US goods: Prices rise across US and EU, mutual welfare losses and intensified negative outcomes for the US. UK experiences modest trade diversion benefits.
5. US global tariff: Severe global trade contraction and substantial price hikes substantially affect North American welfare and UK trade volumes.
6. Full global retaliation with reciprocal tariffs: Extensive global disruption and reduced trade flows, severe US welfare losses, $1.4 trillion global welfare loss projected.

Global cost of Trump trade war ‘could reach $1.4tn’; Goldman Sachs cuts UK growth forecast over tariff spillovers – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK business secretary warns Britain will be hit by ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

www.theguardian.com

 

[Herat]

There are very real concerns that Trump plans on interrupting the global shipping dominance of China with more tariff and fee moves.

1. In February, a port tax of $1 million USD per Chinese cargo vessel for each docking at a US port was being considered. In his foolish hubris and need for big smash noise, it is very possible that Trump will institutue this on April 2.

2. Global shipping tariffs on all supercargo vessels, in addition to their cargo, is being considered. This would only serve to make the US a forbidden island for global shipping, without impacting shipping to Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, or South America.

3. China has put a "hold" on the sale of two major Panama Canal ports to a US-owned company. Not securing full control over the Panama Canal really puts a stranglehold on US tankers and carriers. If Trump attempts to stop Chinese cargo shipping, he will lose the Panama Canal access.

With China, Japan, and South Korea now united as a trade block against the US, this could cause shortages in necessary manufactured parts for US auto, shipbuilding, airline, and other industries

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction - Newton's 3rd law of physics, not something that can be rescinded by the crazed orange fascist.

 

[Herat]

Global cost of 2025 tariff war could reach $1.4tn, report finds​

A full-blown trade war between the US and its trading partners could cost $1.4tn, a new report shows.

Economists at Aston Business School have modelled a range of potential scenarios, including the possibility that America is hit by full global retaliation after it announces new tariffs against other countries.

That full-scale trade conflict could result in a $1.4 trillion global welfare loss, Aston has calculated.

The report explains that tariff escalation leads to higher prices, reduced competitiveness, and fragmented supply chains, as we saw in 2018 in the US-China trade war.

It says:


They outline six scenarios, from the first wave of tariffs already announced against Canada, Mexico and China to a full-blown trade war.

Here are the key findings:

1. US initial tariffs: US prices rise 2.7% and real GPD per capita declines 0.9%. Welfare declines in Canada by 3.2% and Mexico by 5%.
2. Retaliation by Canada, Mexico and China: US loss deepens to 1.1%, welfare declines in Canada by 5.1% and Mexico by 7.1%.
3. US imposes 25% tariffs on EU goods: Sharp transatlantic trade contraction, EU production disruptions, US welfare declines 1.5%.
4. EU retaliates with 25% tariff on US goods: Prices rise across US and EU, mutual welfare losses and intensified negative outcomes for the US. UK experiences modest trade diversion benefits.
5. US global tariff: Severe global trade contraction and substantial price hikes substantially affect North American welfare and UK trade volumes.
6. Full global retaliation with reciprocal tariffs: Extensive global disruption and reduced trade flows, severe US welfare losses, $1.4 trillion global welfare loss projected.

Global cost of Trump trade war ‘could reach $1.4tn’; Goldman Sachs cuts UK growth forecast over tariff spillovers – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as UK business secretary warns Britain will be hit by ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

www.theguardian.com

What is that old saying: Those who ignore history are bound to repeat it?

 

[LoveyG]

I can't get over the fact that Republicans think it's funny to taunt people. I can't even think of an animal that is that simplistic in their humour and intellectual ability. I can imagine those same people taunting a person with cerebral palsy trying to cross the street before the light changes and having a good laugh when they get hit by a truck. I just don't get it.

For your viewing pleasure. A video of Trump mocking a reporter with disabilities.

 

[indicolite22]

I can't get over the fact that Republicans think it's funny to taunt people. I can't even think of an animal that is that simplistic in their humour and intellectual ability. I can imagine those same people taunting a person with cerebral palsy trying to cross the street before the light changes and having a good laugh when they get hit by a truck. I just don't get it.

I think some are embarrassed by Trump, so they dismiss it as a joke. Don't they realize that the threats (AKA "jokes") directed at Canada are directly costing the US? Canadians voting with their wallets is working great.

 

[Herat]

For your viewing pleasure. A video of Trump mocking a reporter with disabilities.

Shameless bully completely enabled by his supporters.

It should remind you about the tiny tiny, weak and scared person that lives inside his head who is terrified of being exposed.

 

[indicolite22]

Shameless bully completely enabled by his supporters.

It should remind you about the tiny tiny, weak and scared person that lives inside his head who is terrified of being exposed.

He insulted women, the veterans and the disabled plenty of times. None of it is abhorrent enough for his crowd to stop supporting him. They always find excuses. He could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and get away with it (but Luigi M won't). His own words, not mine.

 

[Herat]

An attempt to disrupt global shipping will be met with major consequences. He claims the revenues are to fund US shipbuilding. That is hugely unrealistic. Ramping up shipbuilding of the cargo carrier size would take a decade, and having cut Canadian steel imports off, he has cut off his own project at the knees.

The Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean dominance of global shipping and shipbuilding is not going to be affected by a poorly thought-out reactionary plan.

Top 10 Maritime Nations Leading the Shipbuilding Industry

The top 10 shipbuilding nations hold a remarkable 90% market share of the entire world's ship construction. These giants span Asia, Europe, and the Americas, leading through technological leaps, specialized skills, and strategic investments. China's massive shipyards, South Korea's high-tech...

www.virtuemarine.nl

 

[otto]

An attempt to disrupt global shipping will be met with major consequences. He claims the revenues are to fund US shipbuilding. That is hugely unrealistic. Ramping up shipbuilding of the cargo carrier size would take a decade, and having cut Canadian steel imports off, he has cut off his own project at the knees.

The Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean dominance of global shipping and shipbuilding is not going to be affected by a poorly thought-out reactionary plan.

Top 10 Maritime Nations Leading the Shipbuilding Industry

The top 10 shipbuilding nations hold a remarkable 90% market share of the entire world's ship construction. These giants span Asia, Europe, and the Americas, leading through technological leaps, specialized skills, and strategic investments. China's massive shipyards, South Korea's high-tech...

www.virtuemarine.nl

Trump is once again spilling the end goal without laying the groundwork. He has now made it clear that he wants control of Arctic and Panama shipping lanes not for any security reason, but to put tariffs on any non-USA ship using those waters. It's been obvious for a long time that this was his goal - to control global trade.

First he announces tariffs on shipping, but he still has to build ships and steal the waterways from Canada and Greenland. It's as though he's so giddy with the thought of money rolling in that he can't stick to the script of wanting the Arctic shipping channels for security reasons.

China wants Arctic shipping lane access to transport products from China to the EU. Canada, Indigenous People, Greenland and Denmark own that piece of the planet, and they have no reason to prevent goods from travelling from China to the EU. Even if that was a problem, China presumably has access to Russian shipping routes in the Arctic - although Greenland presents a problem if owned by the USA.

 

[Herat]

The real source of the problem is his insistence on reducing the US debt while trying to reduce taxes on the top 1% of earners, who are his friends.

Thus the absolutely draconian reducing in operational Federal departments and workers, with ridiculous tariffs.

 

[LoveyG]

The real source of the problem is his insistence on reducing the US debt while trying to reduce taxes on the top 1% of earners, who are his friends.

Thus the absolutely draconian reducing in operational Federal departments and workers, with ridiculous tariffs.

I'm sure you meant:

"...while trying to further reduce taxes on the top 1% of earners..."

 

[Herat]

I'm sure you meant:

"...while trying to further reduce taxes on the top 1% of earners..."

Truly, LoveyG, truly.

It can be difficult to keep up with all the incredibly favorable tax standards that extremely rich people have had in the past decades. Decades.

 

[Stunned]

Going to war, along with the economic havoc he’s wreaking, is perhaps part of Trump’s plan to reign for more than two terms. The depression and WWII kept FDR in office for four terms to provide “stability,” which is what led to the two term amendment. It would be just like Trump to manufacture these reasons to insist on a third term. Assuming there are even elections in 2028.

JMO

IMO I don't think #47 is capable of a plan, I think the people behind him pushing him forward do. IMO

 

[Stunned]

Shameless bully completely enabled by his supporters.

It should remind you about the tiny tiny, weak and scared person that lives inside his head who is terrified of being exposed.

No, it reminds of a nasty, hateful being who should have been forever ignored. IMO

 

[Stunned]

The real source of the problem is his insistence on reducing the US debt while trying to reduce taxes on the top 1% of earners, who are his friends.

Thus the absolutely draconian reducing in operational Federal departments and workers, with ridiculous tariffs.

I'm not sure he himself knows what a tariff is! IMO

 

[otto]

Trump has no logic to anything he does. If he thinks there's a dollar to be made, he grabs at it. That includes Canada, Greenland, Panama, Arctic shipping channels. Tax cuts will add $3-4 trillion to the debt (Bloomberg). Cancelling social infrastructure reduced costs by 1%, but the fallout might cost 10 times more - no one knows.

Republicans, who enjoy taunting others, are not interested in logic. They merely wait for the next moment that they can laugh at the same taunting - the one-liner that amuses his followers day after day, month after month. Nothing else phases them.

Trump wants Canada's arctic shipping lanes, but he has no reason to demand anything of Canada. He starts with unjustly enacting Emergency National Security based on 43 kilos of fentanyl. This opens the door for him to violate the free trade agreement and impose tariffs. Tariffs, he said, would make Republicans rich, impoverish Canada, and force Canada to become a USA state under Trump control. This is a funny joke for Republicans. If fentanyl didn't convince Republicans that Canada needs to be annexed, then false claims that the USA subsidizes Canada with $200 billion annually got their attention, convincing them that Canada needed to be "punished."

Then Trump turned to Greenland and decided that he may as well use military force - expecting that no one will stop him. Then greed kicked in, and he decided on tariffs for the entire world. When that wasn't enough, he sent letters to all other countries telling them to adhere to his political ideology, or they would not be allowed to trade with the USA. Realizing that other countries might form new trade partnerships, he said he would add further tariffs to all countries that have cooperative trade agreements that exclude the USA. Now he says that he's going to change the constitution, or start a global war, so he can remain in power for more than 2 terms.

The man is constantly trying to plug holes in his illogical, chaotic plan; constantly escalating the situation.

As 15 countries in Asia form a new trade alliance, Trump starts ranting about tariffs on their ships. It's as though he's spinning out of control because he has no control over anything other than the looming USA recession and increasing cost of living. He probably thinks that he can start and stop wars at his convenience.