• #14,961
Honestly if you have lived in Tucson for 30 years and know how to spell it correctly, you know that there is not a “pretty good presence” of cartels in this city.
They're obvious routes, but don't make themselves known!
I live in San Antonio, so we're a hub for things going to Dallas - I-35 but it's all pretty hush, hush.
These people are not visible nor are they "shooting each other" like were decades ago.


The days of the known kingpins such as Jimmy Chagra and Fred Carrasco are long gone. (They were both US citizens, but worked with cartels)

I think they are relying on different types of trade with different types of bosses.

More individual types, like the trucker who had all those migrants locked in the back of his truck. Who knows who he was working with?

The middle man was a 22 yo 670 pound guy Palestine, TX (located in the who lived in his mom's basement and rarely left house. (US citizen) Not exactly what we envision a cartel member to be. 670-pound man charged in connection with 53 migrant deaths denied bail Obvious online connection with a larger ring. The internet probably allows them to stay underground and less visible. Yes, this is migrant smuggling, which not the same as drugs, but you get the idea,
 
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  • #14,962
Is the video meant to throw off the perp? Make it seem like they have no idea what happened to NG?

Also, if the perp is seeking attention from SG, maybe by her not addressing the perp directly but asking the PUBLIC for "their help" would make the perp "step up" in order to get back in SG's attention? I know that sounds odd but it's kind of like reverse psychology (of someone that is probably already a psycho)

EDIT: Or perhaps to provoke the perp to provide more info either way?
 
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  • #14,963
Its interesting that she has makeup on. Not judging. Maybe intentional.
Jmo
 
  • #14,964
and Now I am circling back to my initial thinking. repairmen, someone delivering or installing something. Who gathered just enough intel on their visit(s) to the property to case the home.
 
  • #14,965
They want her body.
The wording is just so strange though -and not how a journalist would write it. Honestly it's not even how an FBI agent prob would write it, in my opinion. "We beg you now" is awkward. "to return our mother to us so we can celebrate with her"....is also awkward as has been discussed. The "to us" and "with her" phrases stick out to me as being somewhat unnecessary, though I know they have to be specific in their response. I do wonder, though, if it's being translated to another language for the "kidnappers"?
 
  • #14,966
Transcript:

"Hi there everybody. Um, I wanted to come on and just share a few thoughts as we enter into another week of this nightmare. Um, I just want to say first of all thank you so much for all of the prayers and the love that we have felt, my sister and brother and I. And that our mom has felt. Because we believe that somehow, some way she is feeling these prayers and that God is lifting her even in this moment and in this darkest place.

We believe our mom is still out there. We need your help. Law enforcement is working tirelessly, around the clock, trying to bring her home, trying to find her. She was taken and we don't know where. And we need your help. So I'm coming on just to ask you not just for your prayers but no matter where you are, even if you're far from Tucson, if you see anything, if you hear anything, if there's anything at all that seems strange to you, that you report to law enforcement. We are at an hour of desperation. And we need your help."
"We are at an hour of desperation"

- Today's timeline
- no pertinent developments in case.

Seems almost like that "ransom" angle is stalling all together, which would lead credence to an opportunistic separate scam (as many LE experts have opined recently) and would make further sense if NG initial disappearance is another crime.
 
  • #14,967
This is so, so strange. So strange. No other words.
 
  • #14,968
  • #14,969
I took that to mean that NG needs your (the public's) help in order to be found?
Ah thank you! I saw another poster transribed all that NG said and that helped too and makes more sense now!!

Of course I went off course and interpreted it totally different 😂
 
  • #14,970
SG recent video. First thoughts. It's just her. She is more composed, looking directly at the camera. Her appearance is also different. I believe it was intentional for her to appear more like herself. More like we are used to seeing her on TV. To me, this was a subtle FU to the ransom demanders. IMO
 
  • #14,971
That's a very good point. I decided to go back through the timeline to try and see what we know for sure and what might be assumptions. Items not publicly confirmed by known facts are in bold below.

  • 5:32 Uber delivers NG to AG and TC home for dinner. Not publicly released where she was picked up by Uber.
  • 9:48 The garage door went up - not sure if LE can be sure exactly who entered house at this time.
  • 9:50 Garage door goes down - not sure if LE can be sure if anyone exited at that time.
  • Timeline seems to assume NG entered the home and went to bed but not sure if this can be proven.
  • 1:47 Doorbell camera disconnects and is later determined to be gone. Pictures confirm it was removed.
  • 2:12 Software detects person on camera. Nothing publicly known regarding which camera detected this form. Police say no video. How do they know camera detected a human form?
  • 2:28 Pacemaker disconnects from phone. Do we know whether she was actually at home when this occurred? Could she have been somewhere else?
  • 11:00 Church member calls family when NG is not accounted for. disappeared from later time lines. Did this really happen?
  • 11:56 Family checks on NG Nothing publicly known confirms this
  • 12:03 911 Call - 911 records would confirm.
  • 12:15 Police arrive - dispatch records would confirm.
I haven't seen any expert quotes mention this specifically, but a real kidnapping and ransom crew would just grab the victim up, stuff her in a vehicle and go. If you don't get get away cleanly with the victim, you get caught. No ransom. Just prison. But if we look at the timeline that way LE has discussed it, it appears something happened to the camera at 1:47, an unknown camera identifies a person 25 minutes later, and then the phone can no longer find the pacemaker 16 minutes after that. So it appears something was going on at the house for a full 41 minutes. Why?

If it's a kidnapping what kept them at the house so long after they have their victim? That makes no sense. The longer they are there, the more chance they are noticed coming or going by a neighbor. And how did they get out of the house? Not through the garage because it appears that door did not go up or down again. Is it confirmed that the back door was open?

Thanks,
Jeanne
Can your notes include dates and am and pm please. <modsnip: Rude>
It may not be complicated at all. But because there are two different versions out there (Version 1: Sheriff, first press conference saying, "Someone didn't see her at church and called the family" and the NY Times saying, "Someone didn't see her in a church pew and said hey, where's mom, we better call her family" and Version 2: The Daily Mail and also Brian Entin's producers saying the church pastor said Nancy hasn't been in person since Covid), it keeps circulating here.

Every 20 pages someone asks, "Wait, I thought she didn't go in person??" "The NY Times said she wasn't in a pew" "The hoax ransom guy's criminal complaint says a family at church told the family" "The Daily Mail says she hasn't been attending church in person since Covid." "Brian Entin's producers said the pastor told him directly." And everyone is correct, and even quotes a credible source. It may make zero difference to the case and be of zero relevance. It's just causing constant rehashing here, because

The Daily Mail has decided to semi-expose where Savannah and her siblings are allegedly staying. It's a $1.2 million mansion in the Catalina Foothills area of Tucson. It sits in an exclusive gated neighborhood with a guardhouse. They have been there for several days.
View attachment 643011
Behind a paywall, but those are the pertinent details.

Since it's a paywall, can u give details about the pertinent details ease.
 
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  • #14,972
This makes it seem like it wasn't anyone in the family. I don't think SG would make a video like that if she felt they were on the precipice of arresting SIL.

But I truly don't know what to think. I just hope they get a resolution at some point soon. Someone in Tucson must've seen something or know something. 😞
It could be a bait and switch. These videos are all quite strange.
 
  • #14,973
Cartel angle. Something I am starting to consider.

With the recent pressure and crackdowns on cartel activity, it is not unreasonable to at least consider whether some groups may be shifting tactics to generate revenue in different ways. Kidnapping and ransom have historically been part of cartel operations, especially in environments where journalists and public figures have been targeted.

Looking at the last five years alone, the pattern is not insignificant. According to press freedom and watchdog reporting, Mexico continues to rank among the most dangerous places in the world for journalists. Over roughly the past five years, multiple journalists have been abducted, disappeared, or kidnapped in cartel-influenced regions. ARTICLE 19’s tracking shows dozens of journalists disappeared historically, with additional disappearances continuing into the most recent decade. The Committee to Protect Journalists has also repeatedly reported Mexico as having one of the highest numbers of missing or disappeared journalists globally, and individual cases of journalists being kidnapped and later released have continued to surface in cartel dominated areas.

That does not automatically mean cartel involvement in this case, but it shows that the tactic exists and has been used repeatedly in recent years.

Another important piece is the Bitcoin misconception. Many people assume cryptocurrency makes ransom untraceable. It does not. Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous, and every transaction is permanently recorded. In past cases, funds believed to be hidden were eventually traced once they touched real-world systems such as exchanges, services, or identifiable behavior. Most identifications do not happen because technology fails. They happen because one small real-world connection exposes the chain.

So while there is still no confirmed public evidence tying this specific case directly to cartel involvement, the method of kidnapping combined with ransom and crypto does fit patterns seen in organized crime environments. The real turning point will be whether investigators uncover any concrete link to organized networks, cross border activity, or traceable financial movement.
 
  • #14,974
There are some serial killer kidnappers, but your overall point is valid. The only distinction here that makes me think that a kidnapping for ransom is a real possibility is simply the fact that there is a celebrity involved who has the means to pay a sizable ransom. Said celebrity is also viewed as attractive and likeable by many, so a deranged person could certainly plot and scheme against her as some kind of attention-seeking exercise that only he/she understands.

One also has to consider that an elaborate kidnapping/ransom scheme with proxy IPs and cryptocurrencies as a diversion tactic by someone in the immediate family is as unlikely as an actual kidnapping/ransom. An opportunist could insert themselves into the fold, as we have seen in a subsequent arrest, but the FBI isn't going to use a grief-stricken family as bait to catch a suspected opportunist/extortionist. There had to be compelling information in those demands that lead not just the FBI, but the family, into believing that they were authentic. Grieving family members, particularly ones with infinite media exposure at their disposal, aren't just going to focus all of their resources and efforts on a hail Mary. And it's not a hail Mary when the FBI is clearly involved in the family's coordination and messaging to this purported kidnapper.

JMO

The FBI couldn't ask the family to do it, but the family could decide to do it themselves in order to help the FBI catch the hoaxer.

The siblings must be feeling very angry and extremely powerless, maybe it's the one thing they feel like they can do to actually be helpful!
 
  • #14,975
Savannah was remarkably composed there, and still optimistic that her mom is alive.
She had on her professional hat this time. She means business.
 
  • #14,976
Interesting. Appealing to the public to find her mother rather than appealing to the "kidnappers" to return her.

I'm sorry but that seems sus
 
  • #14,977
For some reason, it appears to me that the family now believe the ransom angle was a big fat hoax...so they now believe it's possible Ms Guthrie is being held somewhere, for some crazy reason. Hope, however small has been returned.

Am sure this has been mentioned but I've only just come online to a short from Brian Entin who said it's his understanding that the 3 hour search/pics at AG's house was consensual (so not under warrant)
 
  • #14,978
Kind of sounds like to me she doesn't think paying the ransom has much of a chance of bringing Nancy back. Will be interesting to see what happens (or doesn't) to the wallet after 5pm. Pretty safe to guess TMZ will report on it. JMO.
 
  • #14,979
All of them staying together, if true, is either a sign that one (or two) of those folks that some suspect are involved aren't involved at all, or they are rabidly malignant human beings. Odds are the former.

JMO.

IMO. The sister is “the family”. Maybe AG was the closest to the mom; could she have some own “vulnerability”? Possible.

So the siblings do it as they think their mother would have wanted it to be.

SIL is not a family, so he is cut off. (Or maybe he had some bad friends on the side, or maybe someone else, who knows?)

I understand it like: AG is the victim now, too. The SIL can still be discussed. NG, more likely, is gone. This is what I feel. I see grief, not anxiety. At best, SG is not sure.

JMO.

I hope they’ll find their mom, how and when, we don’t know. And may it be the learning story about the plight of aging. Maybe we’ll learn to love our parents as we love our kids?

Please correct me if I interpreted it wrong.

I am very sorry for the children of NG. It is their only parent.
 
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  • #14,980
I feel this is a genuine appeal to be honest. I am not sure law enforcement would allow SG to go on her Instagram and make a fake national appeal for people to report to law enforcement as a means to "throw off" the perp. It would potentially clog up resources and lead to false reports. I just don't know.
 
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