• #25,861
These are the dates LE has now asked residents to go back to and check their surveillance cameras. Strange there were searches of NG's address from there. This could be a stretch but Tucson does have a Somali population. Somalia is well known for kidnap for ransom in their area of the world, and piracy for ransom on the high seas. Maybe they are exporting 😉
It's just such a coincidence LE is now looking back to January which includes those search dates.
I’m not understanding the Somali fixation, I’ve seen it several times on this thread. Am I missing something?
 
  • #25,862
SBM. This is one of the theories I've been operating under since LE started spending so much time in AG/TCs neighborhood. Searching, talking to neighbors, asking for video. I think they're trying to pinpoint the movement of cars that night. There's a reason they are so hyper focused on that street and the roads in between. There's also a reason they alerted AB so early. There's something wrong with the initial story. As for why you would move a body? You were the last one to see that person and the first one LE is going to come looking for. People kill their spouses at home all the time and remove their bodies and claim they've "gone missing". We've seen that a hundred times. IMO

Yes, I agree, they do seem to keep going back there, probably to verify the initial story (my assumption?). But I guess I just *have to believe* that this many days into the investigation, they have that verification. I wonder if they are looking for other activity to focus on, other cars in the neighborhood, someone targeting this daughter and/or SIL. Or, I suppose you could say, a frequent visitor to their house could indicate some level of "planning". Hmmm. Wouldn't they start with the most inner circle and branch out? I hope they're "branching out" now and have eliminated the "inner circle". Which should have been done IMO within about a day or less.

Your last part, people kill their spouses, remove, etc... Yes, because they are hiding evidence IMO of something that occurred in anger and heat-of-the-moment, not for inheritance or money purposes was my point. In this case though, we have a person on camera coming to the house hours after NG (allegedly) arrived home, when she was (allegedly) sleeping. So, my theory is based on that she was in fact at home at that time. So if it were the family member in question, whatever state NG was in at that time, they would have returned to the house at that time (of the video) to remove the body, if that was the situation.

Thank you!
 
  • #25,863
Dbm
 
  • #25,864
okay so, here where I am, the organized gang members wear all black head to toe with hoodies, they cruise around in stolen cars, but will also use bikes to surveil, I have seen them on little bikes checking out cars etc. Literally NO ONE who is a professional criminal dresses like this Bozo.

this guy is just bizzarro. you don't want to be seen on a dark landscape...you wear black.

mOO
Not to mention it looks like there’s reflective fabric on the backpack and jacket
 
  • #25,865
Army helicopters are doing border surveilance in Texas.

If this ain't border surveilance, I don't know what it is? Got any suggestions?

Looks like an army helicopter just took off from Carrizo Springs and is heading toward Laredo again.



View attachment 644427

View attachment 644429
Sorry what is the relevance between Army operations in Texas and the Army helicopters I was pointing out around Tucson? You've mentioned that a few times and maybe I'm being thick, but I'm not following LOL.
To my knowledge, Customs & Border Protection has their own aircraft and would not be using US Army helicopters, generally speaking.
I agree most of the US Army helicopter flights in the US are for training. For the reasons I mentioned before in terms of flight path/circling, takeoff point, location, federal resources being involved, etc. I thought/hoped the ones I pointed out could be related to the NG search. I also said in each of my posts, I have no idea if that's the case:)
 
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  • #25,866
If they allowed those of us Experienced genetic genealogist’s to volunteer , after they uploaded the DNA we all could make backwards family trees and come up with 1-10 possible suspects to go get their thrown away cups, napkins etc. I do this for adoptees who want to know who their birth parents are and I have not had one I did not solve. It’s taken me anywhere from a couple days to a month or two with only ONE case talking me 10 months. But i eventually got it! I’ve offered to volunteer my services for cases such as these and for cold cases but no takers! Go figure! Btw we are a first responder family and know how private these searches need to be, yet no department has taken our offer!
They have to have tight clinical controls so that the results are admissible in court. They can’t achieve that with volunteers.

Amateur opinion and speculation
 
  • #25,867
This could be a stretch but Tucson does have a Somali population. Somalia is well known for kidnap for ransom in their area of the world, and piracy for ransom on the high seas. Maybe they are exporting 😉
It's just such a coincidence LE is now looking back to January which includes those search dates.
About as likely as aliens abducting Nancy imo
 
  • #25,868
Something that hasn't gone unnoticed by me this whole case is that the FBI hasn't assumed jurisdiction. The only way they can do that here is if an abduction occurred and a component of the crime involved interstate commerce, or crossed state/national boundaries. So which of these two things is holding them up? For example, do they have strong evidence that NG was likely deceased prior to be removed from the home? Conversely, if they have compelling evidence that she was abducted and she was alive when removed from the home, then do they not already have evidence of interstate commerce via the ransom email(s) that almost certainly used proxy IPs that bounced through other states/countries?

So which component is restraining them? And which component is giving Pima county jurisdiction still?

These are important questions to ask, because the public has been given a ton of information alluding to an abduction and an as far untraceable (likely proxied/spoofed) ransom email, which implies federal jurisdiction, and yet Pima county still leads the investigation.

JMO.
There is no reason for the FBI to "assume jurisdiction." They can assist, advise, and get the evidence they need for a potential federal case while leaving PCSO in charge. Federal charges can always be filed later if a federal nexus is identified (and I'm sure it will be since the ransom demand and communication means involve the US financial system and telecommunications wires.)

I've defended PCSO although I agree and the sheriff admitted that mistakes have been made. But if the PCSO were screwing up in a way to compromise the investigation I think we'd see the FBI take over. That could certainly happen over the next few days and it would not surprise me. But for now I don't think there is anything to read into the PCSO staying in charge.
 
  • #25,869
I totall agree. My mother was adopted. I recently had my DNA done and a collaborator and I were able to identify my biological grandmother and her extended family back several generations in less than 2 hours. But after more than a month there is a half aunt we cannot place and an entire branch of the family that matches but we cannot find a connection.

Based on my personal experience with it, I think judges need to be far more restrictive on issuing warrants based on genetic genealogy. My partner has several close cousin matches that we know are impossible. I don't think DNA lies. But there are factors like pedigree collapse and endogamy that exist in many populations and the impact of these factors is far too complicated for a judge or jury to understand, yet far too easy for a prosecutor to misrepresent out of ignorance.

The same factors make genetic genealogy high preducial against certain ethnic groups.

We've all been trained that DNA is so overwhelmingly reliable that a match can't be questioned. That's true in most situations but not when it comes to genealogy.

Typically there is no warrant, as police usually (surreptitiously) collect discarded trash in order test the crime scene DNA against the suspect.

If there is a match they can get an arrest warrant, and a confirmation sample is taken after that.

IGG is almost never presented in the courtroom, because it's confusing and irrelevant with the direct match.

My position is that if IGG gets it wrong, who cares? Because that person is not going to be a match to the DNA sample. Of course if people's lives are somehow adversely affected, that's another issue.
 
  • #25,870
Yes, I agree, they do seem to keep going back there, probably to verify the initial story (my assumption?). But I guess I just *have to believe* that this many days into the investigation, they have that verification. I wonder if they are looking for other activity to focus on, other cars in the neighborhood, someone targeting this daughter and/or SIL. Or, I suppose you could say, a frequent visitor to their house could indicate some level of "planning". Hmmm. Wouldn't they start with the most inner circle and branch out? I hope they're "branching out" now and have eliminated the "inner circle". Which should have been done IMO within about a day or less.

Your last part, people kill their spouses, remove, etc... Yes, because they are hiding evidence IMO of something that occurred in anger and heat-of-the-moment, not for inheritance or money purposes was my point. In this case though, we have a person on camera coming to the house hours after NG (allegedly) arrived home, when she was (allegedly) sleeping. So, my theory is based on that she was in fact at home at that time. So if it were the family member in question, whatever state NG was in at that time, they would have returned to the house at that time (of the video) to remove the body, if that was the situation.

Thank you!
The other thing is that AG and SIL have only lived in their home 9 1/2 months. It would be telling if any of the neighbors from their previous neighborhood have been interviewed…about anything?
 
  • #25,871
That might be a valid hypothesis were the intruder we saw on video not obviously a tall white guy. Somalis are generally shorter and darker skinned.
We must have different definitions of what a tall white guy looks like. The men in my family would not consider 5’9” - 5’10” to be tall.
 
  • #25,872
Just my amateur opinion, I speculate there will be arrests and NG will be recovered very soon. Very soon. Hope my spidey sense is right on this one.

Amateur opinion and speculation only
 
  • #25,873
RSBM.

Great point, there is that! I don't believe we've heard that anything was missing (right?).

To your next point.... if it was a targeted kidnapping, then I think "something went wrong", because as far as we know there has been no proof of life. Which IMO is key to receiving a ransom.

If the ransom notes (one, some or all) were valid, then the perpetrator(s) screwed up. Badly. Obviously this family would have paid. But have been unable to show proof of life :( If this is the case, I believe NG died in the initial invasion or shortly thereafter and they are just screwed. Along with the poor family. :(
Good points being made. So with all of that being said, if the ransom letters are indeed real and from the perps, money, or in this case bitcoin, is what they wanted. If, God forbid something happened and they were unable to show proof of life, they could have walked away but instead still tried to get the money.

Which brings me to one more thing. If the ransom letters are real, it puts the perp(s) in a different category. Everybody obviously has heard of bitcoin but very few people, imo, are aware of how to do transactions that would virtually make it untraceable. I understand that the nature of it is untraceable but I have NO IDEA how that works. To have the stones to demand that kind of money and have high confidence that you will receive it and not even the FBI will catch you (or so you think). I mean if a crime happened near me, I would not be able to name one person as a suspect that I personally know that would know how to do that.
 
  • #25,874
I’m not understanding the Somali fixation, I’ve seen it several times on this thread. Am I missing something?

"Nancy Guthrie house" showed up only on one particular day in January Google searches. The searches came from Somalia. Most likely because the person was using a VPN, but possibly there is a connection.
 
  • #25,875
RSBM.

Great point, there is that! I don't believe we've heard that anything was missing (right?).

To your next point.... if it was a targeted kidnapping, then I think "something went wrong", because as far as we know there has been no proof of life. Which IMO is key to receiving a ransom.

If the ransom notes (one, some or all) were valid, then the perpetrator(s) screwed up. Badly. Obviously this family would have paid. But have been unable to show proof of life :( If this is the case, I believe NG died in the initial invasion or shortly thereafter and they are just screwed. Along with the poor family. :(
They definitely were not operating in good faith regarding the ransom.
 
  • #25,876
Why? If this is a well regarded lab?
Whyyyyy wouldn’t the local Sheriff not want the National Federal Lab to process this? This is nutts!
 
  • #25,877
Why? If this is a well regarded lab?
It’s standard…if you’re doing your own investigation it just doesn’t really make sense to take the findings of someone else. Every investigative step should be done by you.

moo
 
  • #25,878
We must have different definitions of what a tall white guy looks like. The men in my family would not consider 5’9” - 5’10” to be tall.
5’9”- 5’10” is above average male height in the United States. I figured the Somalia angle was just xenophobia and I really wanted to be wrong.
 
  • #25,879
Just my amateur opinion, I speculate there will be arrests and NG will be recovered very soon. Very soon. Hope my spidey sense is right on this one.

Amateur opinion and speculation only
Lets hope
 
  • #25,880
Just my amateur opinion, I speculate there will be arrests and NG will be recovered very soon. Very soon. Hope my spidey sense is right on this one.

Amateur opinion and speculation only
I said that on day one. It did not go well.
 

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