UK UK - Claudia Lawrence, 35, Chef, York University, 18 March 2009 #19

[Stella123]

Were they blinkered? I think so. Think of another scenario such as the NH4, it doesn't happen, ever.

Unless you're the Krays and it's gangland ........... JMO

 

[Stella123]

Even JK said "She said: “I understand why the police did what the police were doing because statistically it should have been one of us, statistically it probably is one of us. All I can say is hand on heart it’s not me. "

Claudia Lawrence's ex-housemate makes bold claim about missing chef's pals

The former close friend of Claudia Lawrence says it's understandable to believe one of the missing chef's pals could be behind her vanishing more than 15 years ago

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Stella123]

Personally though I think I'm more inclined to think it was someone who gave her a lift. MOO

 

[JimmyDurham]

Even JK said "She said: “I understand why the police did what the police were doing because statistically it should have been one of us, statistically it probably is one of us. All I can say is hand on heart it’s not me. "

Claudia Lawrence's ex-housemate makes bold claim about missing chef's pals

The former close friend of Claudia Lawrence says it's understandable to believe one of the missing chef's pals could be behind her vanishing more than 15 years ago

www.mirror.co.uk

JK is incorrect.

Statistically, it is highly unlikely that JK killed Claudia.

Similarly, it is statistically highly unlikely that a syndicate, aka the NH4, killed Claudia and covered for one another.

I believe one of them was an ex-boyfriend. Statistically an ex-boyfriend is much more likely, but I believe this particular ex-boyfriend had moved on with his life and wasn't hankering after Claudia at all. Bear in mind that the men who kill their ex-partners are besotted with them, there is usually a history of domestic violence and they can't and won't let the ex-girlfriend move on with her life because they have a screw loose. None of this would apply to the ex-boyfriend who was part of the fabled NH4. Motive is crucial in any investigation.

It is statistically likely to be a lone man who is either an ex-partner or a current partner with a history of controlling behaviour, or a lone man known to Claudia who has taken a shine to her to the point of being besotted, or a lone man stranger. Obviously, in the event Claudia was murdered in her home or somebody else's home, then statistically that is likely to be somebody known to Claudia; in the event Claudia was murdered or kidnapped while walking to work in the morning, then statistically that increases the prospect of Claudia's murderer being a stranger.

It's hard to fathom why JK would say that when she clearly does not know what she's talking about. Maybe she likes a bit of attention and reckons she's Columbo. Dunno, don't know the lass.

I tend to agree that a lift to work person would be a good starting point, but I'd say this has all of the hallmarks of the cases you'd see on Crimewatch whereby a lone stranger has abducted a woman walking alone in the dark, with the exception of one pertinent point: in just about all of those cases a body was found nearby. That leaves me on the fence: known or unknown to Claudia, but the evidence suggests that she did set off for work that morning.

 

[JimmyDurham]

However, if she didn't go out of the back, how did she disappear? The idea that she could be abducted from the front of her house in plain view, even in the dark, with security cameras around, seems very unlikely.

Watch some of the old Crimewatch programmes on YouTube, you'd be surprised. There are many cases of women abducted while walking alone in the dark, often not far from people and cars. These killers take risks, they have to because there will always be people and cars not too far away.

In terms of CCTV, I don't think there were any from her front door until Melrosegate.

Don't take this the wrong way, but it would be worth having a look at what happens in the real world, as I say there are plenty of murder cases on YouTube, rather than place faith in people on social media who are regurgitating other people's gossip and Agatha Christie theories/tales. Just a suggestion.

 

[JimmyDurham]

York was never considered dangerous at night, even for lone females

Any woman walking alone in the dark where there aren't many people around, is taking a risk. Doesn't matter where it is. Not a good idea at all. "York not being considered as dangerous" won't help you if you're unlucky enough to bump into the wrong person.

could be someone who lived nearby.

Interesting statistic in that of the women who go missing on the street and their bodies are found, in 98% of cases their bodies are found half a mile from where they were last seen.