In order for this all to work to believe a stranger took Isa, many assumptions have to be made:
1. we have to believe three dogs didn't bark
2. we have to believe the stranger knew where Isa slept (if her curtains were closed)
3. we have to assume Isa didn't put up a fight.
4. we have to assume the brothers never heard a thing
5. we have to assume sergio and rebecca both sleep very soundly.
6. we have to assume if the dogs did bark, not one member of the house heard them.
7. we have to assume CPS is just separating sergio for stupid reasons.
8. we have to assume the 911 call was just a fluke and sergio is a cool cucumber.
9. we have to assume the neighbor is wrong about voices and barking dogs because no criminal would abduct in the wake of dawn.
10. we have to assume the parents passed a poly.
11. we have to assume the "Hit" was a scent dog hit of a stranger; not a cadaver dog hit.
See, in order to fit a stranger, we would have to make all these assumptions and, imo, we can't base a theory of stranger abduciton and elimate the parents on this many assumptions.
With deep respect, I disagree with this list.
1. We don't have to assume three dogs didn't bark. Many people have dogs that bark routinely, if someone passes by, if a cat creeps around, etc. Some people have incessant barkers. As a result, many people ignore or sleep through barking, which becomes routine to them.
When I was a kid, I had two big dogs. One was a horrible barker. One night, they were outside and Timber was barking as usual. We kept telling her to shut up. After about
two hours (I know, horrible), of incessant barking, my dad said, "You know, something sounds wrong. Something's different."
He went outside and the patio was covered in blood. The other dog, Tara, had jumped onto a broken piece of glass that my stupid brother left on the side of the house. It had caused her to bleed out. We raced her to the pet hospital and she barely survived (a week in the hospital). Two hours, and my poor dog was barking, while we ignored it. She was trying to tell us something was wrong, and we ignored it. Why? Because she barked all the time.
2. I agree with this. But, he could have been watching the house and figured it out, like other stranger-predators have (duncan, couey).
3. Likely true because we have heard nothing about signs of a struggle. But several kids have been taken by strangers without putting up a fight (Danielle Van Dam, the Groene kids, Elizabeth Smart, Polly Klass, Jessica Lunsdford, etc). So I don't think we need to assume Isa didn't struggle, in order to find a stranger did this.
4. Not necessarily. We don't know if they heard something. Just because they didn't go into her room or awaken their parents doesn't mean they didn't hear anything. They could have and then just gone back to sleep or whatever.
5. Not necessarily. If Sergio had finally gone to his bedroom, then both parents could have been there when Isa was removed from the house. It's on the other side of the home. Also, it's not hard to move around a house without making a noise, even with a small kid in tow, especially if you threaten them. Besides, perhaps the parents did hear something but figured it was nothing and went back to sleep. Happens to me all the time.
6. Not true. See number 1. Again, lots of people ignore their barking dogs. Barking dogs is the cause of many a neighborhood feud.
7. Not necessarily. There could be a very valid reason. Like, they think he is responsible (I don't blame them after hearing his 911 call), and luckily, there is another, unrelated reason they were able to get CPS involved, to help pressure him. Parents with problems, even crummy parents, are sometimes victims too.
8. Or he just doesn't give a darn about his kid. But, to me, this is the number one issue that points to his involvement. Coupled with the CPS involvement, it is a real problem. Nothing much else matters to me. It can all be logically explained.
9. Nope. Why couldn't she have heard laborers of some kind, unrelated to the disappearance? Or maybe she was simply wrong about the time?
10. No we don't. Guilty people fail polys or have inconclusive test results, quite a bit. You know polygraphs are not fool proof, which is why they are usually not allowed to be admitted into evidence. So, you know the parents don't have to have passed in order for this to be a stranger abduction.
11. I don't know. We don't know what dogs exactly were in there.
I hope you don't think I'm being rude.
lease:I get your point but I'm a stickler for logic. And, why couldn't it be, not a stranger, but someone who knows them? Someone who has been in that house? I mean, for the parents to be innocent, it doesn't have to be a stranger who did it and a person who knows them would explain a lot.
I guess stranger or not, a stronger argument for me would be that in order for this to not have been the parents, we must overlook several coincidences, rather than make assumptions:
1. LE has not warned the public about a predator on the loose.
2. Neither the family or LE will release the parents' poly results.
3. The mother stated, in her 911 call, that the gates were locked.
4. Apparently, there was not enough disturbance from dogs, Isa or the intruder, to alert Sergio, Becky, or either son, that something was happening.
5. The family was very reluctant to get before the media and beg for help. When they finally, did, many felt Sergio was "off".
6. Sergio's 911 call was bizarre, to say the least, as if he was calling about a loud party down the street.
7. Statistically, most disappearances of children involve a family member.
8. Isabel has not been found. Strangers who abduct and kill kids often tend not to hide them that well.
9. CPS is involved and Sergio suddenly cannot have any contact with his children.
10. No evidence has been released to indicate an intruder broke into the house, other than the parents' statements about the screen and open window.
11. LE is clearly, seriously focused on the family.
12. A dog "hit" on something in that house and the focus has never really shifted from the family.
13. The family hasn't been cleared.
I am leaning hard toward Sergio at this point after initially having a strong feeling that the parents were not involved. The 911 call really did it for me, coupled with CPS involvement.
I actually, really think that the number one thing that focused this investigation, besides statistics and possibly no legitimate signs of entry, was that 911 call. I really believe LE heard that and went, "Bam! There's our man." I just hope that's not a mistake.