Quote IC, "You said there were storms on the weekend of 17 to 19th June 1988.
Incorrect.
But it came from an expert so it must be correct?
There was a high pressure system over the state.
The information that I found was not for Cottesloe beach but local waters and there was a SW wind 10 to 15 knots and decreasing."
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Hi, The storm that affected the state on the 24th was opposite in the way it didn't spark up much fury whilst over the ocean.
It did its thing over the state , dropping masses of rain etc .
Some of the detailed information here in the color maps show every 6 hours ,
4 per day .
So much information, who has looked at the maps ?
The 44 color maps detail every 6 hrs interval from the 16th -26th june 4 pictures per day .
Starting about the 15th june because that gives a 5 days time frame for big seas / swell to occur .
Unfortunately the P.Oceanographer didn't include as much area in the Indian Ocean as was necessary to identify the swell source .
subsequently the "long period swell" (Am 22nd)
Origin has not been tracked because the map is cut short .
The storm/ swell of the 17th 19th is documented and is a good example case study .
Coastal waters reports aren't very detailed .
The photo of JC'S car on beach is a snapshot during the afternoon (?guessing)
There are small/med waves rolling in .
This pictures proves nothing regarding the conditions on the 20th or 21st although it seems to keep being posted Repeatedly as
if it does .
When you consider the peaks on the swell graphs , up one day down the next .
"Surfers famous saying is, you should have been here yesterday" !
You can see the graphs, rising and falling metres over the days.
As for the 3metres forecasted on the 20th,
i couldn't be happier because that is similar to what the info the Oceanographer provided and the hunch ive had for a much longer time.
In my profession of forecasting i learn the habits of many different weather forecast sites and tools .
There's lots of characteristics that need to be learnt to get the best out of each site .
The reason for using Rott , Nat , Alb is just because i asked the P/Oceanographer to help find evidence of big waves during that time frame .
Those 3 locations are the best info available, there is no other stations, these 3 are standard locations and are still the main ones used Now (29 years later).
Obviously if Cott worked that would be brilliant , but its not .
With experiences and using averages it is easy to make an estimate about cotts (virtual in this case) buoy size .
Its says in my posts wayback from the get go that 2-3 metres swell is the height that i suggested may have battered the metro beaches in the 3-4 days before the 20th june "88 .
The location of the storm in the Indian Ocean to the west and southwest of the state is the storm ive been focussed on primarily.
This storm created a remarkable swell event .
Agreed with IC, that there was not much storm to be seen on the main land to suggest the storm was either rough or bad so hope that settles that dispute .
Its what it did in the ocean , creating 7 metre swells is rare .
It was a big storm off the coast .
Because of the big swells, ive considered what it might have done to the beaches and beach goers on the 17th onwards .
Wondering if it changed peoples routines etc.
Two swell peaks there , on 17 & 19 both with onshore winds , thus potentially causing beach erosion .
I wondered if fishermen and or other beach goers , would have been on cott beach at night on the 19th, 20th, 21st & 22nd .
In the 44 color maps there is a lot of detail its not at all plain simple weather .
There is winds & directions that would have been blowing fresh at times along the coast and there are chances this wind and the leeuwin current moved evidence ( if there was any associated things or evidence of some kind ).
Most interesting with the color maps is for example; on the 23rd there is a very fresh norwest wind blowing down the coast southward .
There's also a few other very interested things regarding local winds and the unfortunate timing of it , perhaps hindered the search to find anything .
At one stage a few days after JCs disappearance the winds change direction 180 degrees and blow . That was the one of the first & only southerly type wind during the 8 days .
Color maps are great have look please .
FWiW
In my opinion the swell forecast is a bit exaggerated for the 21st being 2.5metres .
Thats the "lag" .
i know how its works and it happens nowadays .
Just ask if your interested how.
No need to fuss about that now anyway.
Bom coastal waters is not a great detailed source of info .
Because of a "Lag" bom calls the 21st at still running a 2.5m swell , but its because the day before was actually big so bom plays it safe and keeps the warnings out.
This typically occurs in low level forecasting , Such as bom coastal waters .
Paid subscriptions is the modern way to obtain the best info .