Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall NSW, 12 Sept 2014 - # 5

[spiritualdreaming]

How factual is the info that was reported in MSM, that it was a surprise visit to Grandma's?

 

[Adrianna]

deleted

 

[bearbear]

http://austcemindex.com/cemetery.php?id=406

the map shows the track from benaroon drive

 

[SheepMan]

I would also imagine grandma having a photo of her grandchildren and BS could have seen one and depending where we go with BS could have either clicked a connection in his head or just made him take a liking. I'm actually in two minds, one BS is involved someway in a planned kidnapping through various connections with WT family, or it was an accident and someone (likely BS) has tried to cover it up

 

[Karo]

The more I read the more I think it is misadventure and he just hasn't been found yet. I don't think the Speddings or his family are involved in his disappearance as there are too many reasons why it couldn't have been planned.
I don't think the child in that pic is him most of them are much older than WT would have been, he is a baby.

 

[marlywings]

Folks please don't be posting random photos of children unless you're absolutely 100% certain the photos are of William.

I don't think anyone with children would appreciate their child's photo being posted in a missing persons thread when there is absolutely no connection to the missing person.

 

[kiwi50]

The more I read the more I think it is misadventure and he just hasn't been found yet. I don't think the Speddings or his family are involved in his disappearance as there are too many reasons why it couldn't have been planned.
I don't think the child in that pic is him most of them are much older than WT would have been, he is a baby.

If Spedding's alibi checks out, I'm back to misadventure too.

 

[Panda]

When I see those aerial views, I can completely understand why no neighbours saw anything at all. I'm almost back at my original scenario, I believe William was missing for more than five minutes, what if it was really twenty minutes, and no searcher happened to go in the direction he went immediately, everything soon increases exponentially, the fact that the children
n were playing hide and seek also means he may have kept quiet, or wandered further. This and the fact that three year olds seem very attracted to water makes me think he has simply been missed.

I'm not putting much weight on the lack of scent the dogs found, the more you read about these dogs, the less an exact science it seems to be.

I cant see any way this was a planned abduction, the odds weren't great that William would ever be alone that weekend, if the current person of interest is cleared I'm back to misadventure.

Abductions of children his age are predominantly accidental - for example, they are in a vehicle which has been stolen, or they are taken because of domestic disputes, i.e. a father, mother or girlfriend, boyfriend (which, due to lack of any information is hard to assess). The third group are random abductions. The usual scenario are children taken during the early hours of the morning (2am say), whereby the perpetrator gains access through a bedroom window for sample. The other scenario is opportunistic whereby children are taken during the day at places such as beaches, play areas, pre-schools, etc.

Children who wander off, are quite common in this age group. Interestingly, a lot children in this age group who wander off seem to be in the care of grandparents, and/or in an unfamiliar house, though some do wander off from their own homes. They tend to wander anywhere up to a few miles, though most are found either dead or alive, within a radius of about a mile. Quite a few wander into wooded areas, and a disturbing amount are found drowned, in creeks, dams and the like. There have been a number of cases of children of this age group who wander from their homes with the family dog, or following stray animals. There was a case of a Russian girl who was around 3 1/2, who wandered off with the family dog, to be found over 3 miles from her home. Another Polish child of a similar age was found several kilometres from his home. In both these instances, the family dog actually kept them alive, providing warmth, and aided in them being located. There have been cases of children of this age being found in abandoned houses, and other such obscure places, such as the boot of a car.

I know they made fantastic efforts to try and locate William, but looking at some of the search pictures, where the SES were waist high in bush, if he was incapacitate in the bush, he would be very difficult to find. It is also unfortunate that the search scene was contaminated, making it very difficult for the search dogs to reliably pick up and follow his scent. Given the nature of the bush, the tracker would also have had his work cut out, so I'm not surprised he was unable to make any headway - if indeed he did wander into the bush.

Unless Mr Spedding knew William would definitely be at his grandmothers at that precise time, I find that scenario a bit precarious, to say the least. If it was a pedophile type predator, unless he had prior knowledge of William specifically being at his grandmother's, I personally find that precarious also. There are a lot easier and less risky scenarios for dedicated pedophiles to obtain children, than randomly picking on a middle class house in a suburban area, during the day.

Another consideration is the actual timeframe when it was realised William had gone missing. Unfortunately, people usually have a very distorted perception of time. What seems like 5 minutes, could in fact be 15 minutes. People don't intend to distort this information - they may believe it is correct. However, when multi tasking, for example, it is very easy to lose track of time and give an inaccurate account.

Unless there is further information available or evidence to the contrary, I'm more inclined to think he's probably come to a misadventure, in which case, he may not be found for quite some time.

 

[Nataliah]

I also keep coming back to the idea that he really just wandered off somewhere and was missed by the search. He's so tiny and the bush by all accounts is very thick.

 

[Makara]

Panda, all very good points you've raised and misadventure is still very much on the table IMO. <modsnip> Suffice to say that each scenario I've looked at has one or two sticking points that just don't make sense. But then again the disappearance of Daniel Morcombe, Zarah Baker, Kiesha Weippeart (to name but a few) didn't make sense at the time either.

 

[ozazure]

If you play with street view and directions on google maps, it estimates under a minute to be on that bush track at a walking pace from the house. A normal walking pace gets you to Batar Creek Rd in 5 minutes. My googling suggests the average man can run 100m in 27 seconds ... it is 500 metres away so even if you can't sprint for 500m, it's not ridiculous that someone could have got him from near the house to a car half a kilometre away in under 4 minutes. Added to that, if you use street view to peer down Benaroon drive, the slight curve in the road means it would be easy to be obscured for a lot of that run. I don't think if someone was laying in wait it is surprising they got away sight unseen given the surroundings.

If you pick up a small boy in a spiderman suit, which may be over other clothes, and run with your hand over his mouth ... might not be much to hear, might not be much scent trail left for dogs to follow. It is my understanding that you make a trail from your discarded skin cells etc. He was basically in a polyester jumpsuit, might be being held very tightly and off the ground and then people (rightly so) were all over the vicinity looking for a boy who may well have wandered off. Gone without a trace, quite literally.

I don't doubt for an instance that the photo's veracity has been proven and that his parents' involvement in his disappearance has been completely ruled out. No little feat to create fake phone forensics with a smart phone that you then hand over within an hour or so.

 

[Panda]

Panda, all very good points you've raised and misadventure is still very much on the table IMO.<modsnip> Suffice to say that each scenario I've looked at has one or two sticking points that just don't make sense. But then again the disappearance of Daniel Morcombe, Zarah Baker, Kiesha Weippeart (to name but a few) didn't make sense at the time either.

Would love to pore over your scenarios <modsnip>

There is always the possibility of a totally random scenario, someone in the right place, at the right time (for them, anyway), but I think that scenario is extremely remote - not impossible, but unlikely, given the evidence of precedent cases for children of that age group, in the circumstances and location, as currently known.

<modsnip> or someone else known to William, such as a neighbour, or acquaintance. Unfortunately, without any access to relevant information, I am unable to entertain that scenario at this time.

<modsnip>

 

[The Dark Shadow]

Abductions of children his age are predominantly accidental - for example, they are in a vehicle which has been stolen, or they are taken because of domestic disputes, i.e. a father, mother or girlfriend, boyfriend (which, due to lack of any information is hard to assess). The third group are random abductions. The usual scenario are children taken during the early hours of the morning (2am say), whereby the perpetrator gains access through a bedroom window for sample. The other scenario is opportunistic whereby children are taken during the day at places such as beaches, play areas, pre-schools, etc.

Children who wander off, are quite common in this age group. Interestingly, a lot children in this age group who wander off seem to be in the care of grandparents, and/or in an unfamiliar house, though some do wander off from their own homes. They tend to wander anywhere up to a few miles, though most are found either dead or alive, within a radius of about a mile. Quite a few wander into wooded areas, and a disturbing amount are found drowned, in creeks, dams and the like. There have been a number of cases of children of this age group who wander from their homes with the family dog, or following stray animals. There was a case of a Russian girl who was around 3 1/2, who wandered off with the family dog, to be found over 3 miles from her home. Another Polish child of a similar age was found several kilometres from his home. In both these instances, the family dog actually kept them alive, providing warmth, and aided in them being located. There have been cases of children of this age being found in abandoned houses, and other such obscure places, such as the boot of a car.

I know they made fantastic efforts to try and locate William, but looking at some of the search pictures, where the SES were waist high in bush, if he was incapacitate in the bush, he would be very difficult to find. It is also unfortunate that the search scene was contaminated, making it very difficult for the search dogs to reliably pick up and follow his scent. Given the nature of the bush, the tracker would also have had his work cut out, so I'm not surprised he was unable to make any headway - if indeed he did wander into the bush.

Unless Mr Spedding knew William would definitely be at his grandmothers at that precise time, I find that scenario a bit precarious, to say the least. If it was a pedophile type predator, unless he had prior knowledge of William specifically being at his grandmother's, I personally find that precarious also. There are a lot easier and less risky scenarios for dedicated pedophiles to obtain children, than randomly picking on a middle class house in a suburban area, during the day.

Another consideration is the actual timeframe when it was realised William had gone missing. Unfortunately, people usually have a very distorted perception of time. What seems like 5 minutes, could in fact be 15 minutes. People don't intend to distort this information - they may believe it is correct. However, when multi tasking, for example, it is very easy to lose track of time and give an inaccurate account.

Unless there is further information available or evidence to the contrary, I'm more inclined to think he's probably come to a misadventure, in which case, he may not be found for quite some time.

Hi guys. Again, I've been reading along when I can, but have not had a lot of times to contribute due to a busy work/life schedule. I agree Panda, there are so many possibilities with the information we've been 'drip fed' so far, and in all my ponderings, I've not been able to come up with a favoured (not the best choice of word, I know) scenario.

My head, and my understanding of these sorts of disappearances, tell me it's a random abduction - maybe by someone exploring through the vacant block (fossicking etc), a little too close to the grandma's property. My heart is still stuck in the 'lost in the bush' scenario. I have no idea which to go with. There are so many cases of kids being missed in the bush and found many, many years later. Sniffer dogs are certainly not infallible :-(.
I'm losing hope fast, but tenaciously clinging to that last, thin thread. William - wherever you are - know that there are so many people who care. Xoxo

 

[SouthAussie]

I was looking through child abduction stats and other related data, when I stumbled on this information.

When children under a Family Court order are abducted, no information can be reported about the children (not even their name) without special permission, which can take months to attain.


&#8220;Next to six-year-old Andrew Thompson, the faces and names of just five other missing children appear on the Family Court website this week, because the court has waived the usual rule against identifying them to aid the search. The rest we cannot report.

The federal Attorney-General's office said it had no plans to lift the general restrictions on naming missing children, even though critics say an application to lift the ban can take several months, as it did in Andrew's case.&#8221;

http://www.smh.com.au/national/child-abductions-reach-record-numbers-20100909-153b8.html

 

[loveamystery]

I'm pretty sure someone at one point mentioned a tracker (Jake) heading up to kendall to join the search for William, but this is the first time I've read about this 'camp' site Jake found up there..."We got deep into a rainforest and we found a campsite out there where someone has been camping and leaving some supplies....So we're going to go and suss around that area and see who's doing that..."

has anyone heard more about this? I might have a chat with him and see what he really saw?
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2014/09/16/4088629.htm

^THIS^
There is no way that campsite was not followed up on. If Jake stopped posting on Facebook, he must have been instructed by LE.

Does anyone know the time the photo on the back porch was taken? He's not wearing shoes. Jake asked about shoes. They wouldn't let him run around the yard without shoes, would they?

Here in the northern hemisphere, southern exposure has sunlight most of the day, while the north side of a house will always be in shadow. Is it just the reverse in Australia?

If anyone else is metrically challenged, the temps that day were between 60 and 75F. IMO It was a chilly morning.

 

[SouthAussie]

Panda's post above made me curious about the abduction and child crime stats for Australia. And as always, the stats are all very sad and horrifying . A few snippets from a 2011 report - the most recent that I could find ....


- Of 600 abductions (all ages) in 2010, 179 were from residential locations, 330 were from community locations (street, transport), 91 were from retail or recreational locations.

- Males aged 0&#8211;14 years have consistently experienced assault at a higher rate than any other type of violent crime.

- Sexual assaults against males aged 0&#8211;14 years occurred, on average, at a rate of 78 per 100,000 population in 2010.

- The rate of kidnapping/abduction (of children 0-14 years old) was fairly stable over the period 2005-2010, plateauing at an average of five per 100,000 population each year.

http://aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/facts/2011/facts11.pdf


Just to add, a US report indicates that about 22% of abducted children are taken by non-family, 4.5% are taken by strangers and are kept overnight then taken to locations 50+ miles away and killed, ransomed, or held with the intention of keeping them, the first 3 hours are critical in finding them, the murder of an abducted child is considered rare.

http://www.missingkids.com/KeyFacts

 

[Makara]

I'd be interested to know who is in this pedo ring that was uncovered in the area (that was spoken about up-thread somewhere), and if a neighbourhood person was known or suspected to be in it, and if Spedding was also known or suspected to be in it. (Hence, perhaps, the very early involvement of the Sex Crimes squad.)

Then I could see this being a collusive and opportunistic or not-so-opportunistic abduction.

These pedos are not always dirty old/young men that hide out by themselves. Unfortunately they are also married men, the nice neighbour across the way, coaches, teachers, priests, and on and on .....

I'd also like the names of these paedophiles to be published for the whole world to see. Why are these rock spiders protected? Name and shame the lot of them for the protection and safety of all of our children. These monsters apparently can't and don't want to be rehabilitated so just shoot the lot of them!

http://www.mako.org.au/prelist.html

 

[Makara]

^THIS^
There is no way that campsite was not followed up on. If Jake stopped posting on Facebook, he must have been instructed by LE.

Does anyone know the time the photo on the back porch was taken? He's not wearing shoes. Jake asked about shoes. They wouldn't let him run around the yard without shoes, would they?

Here in the northern hemisphere, southern exposure has sunlight most of the day, while the north side of a house will always be in shadow. Is it just the reverse in Australia?

If anyone else is metrically challenged, the temps that day were between 60 and 75F. IMO It was a chilly morning.

According to an MSM report (see my link upthread) the photo was taken within an hour of William's disappearance. So between 9:30am -10:30am on Friday 12 September 2014.

Apparently William was wearing shoes similar to the pair shown below when he disappeared.



http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...e-william-tyrell/story-fni0cx12-1227058375645

 

[Angeline]

^THIS^
There is no way that campsite was not followed up on. If Jake stopped posting on Facebook, he must have been instructed by LE.

Does anyone know the time the photo on the back porch was taken? He's not wearing shoes. Jake asked about shoes. They wouldn't let him run around the yard without shoes, would they?

Here in the northern hemisphere, southern exposure has sunlight most of the day, while the north side of a house will always be in shadow. Is it just the reverse in Australia?

If anyone else is metrically challenged, the temps that day were between 60 and 75F. IMO It was a chilly morning.

All that's been reported is that the photo was taken within an hour of his disappearance.

Regarding shoes, he was not wearing shoes in the photo but in a police interview shortly after he went missing, it was said he was dressed the same as in the photo but with sandals. Edit: yes, what Makara posted

I was thinking, perhaps this hide and seek game was a game they played every time they visited grandma. Maybe if someone was watching William on previous visits they would know the kids would inevitably play this game and may even know what direction William would run to.

I'm positive I read somewhere that this was a game they played often. Just a small detail but you never know.

 

[Remug]

I know they made fantastic efforts to try and locate William, but looking at some of the search pictures, where the SES were waist high in bush, if he was incapacitate in the bush, he would be very difficult to find. It is also unfortunate that the search scene was contaminated, making it very difficult for the search dogs to reliably pick up and follow his scent. Given the nature of the bush, the tracker would also have had his work cut out, so I'm not surprised he was unable to make any headway - if indeed he did wander into the bush.

I keep coming back to the idea that Wlliam's body could just be out there trapped in bushes... But surely the cadaver dogs would have picked up on his scent after he expired, if that were the case.

Here in the northern hemisphere, southern exposure has sunlight most of the day, while the north side of a house will always be in shadow. Is it just the reverse in Australia?

Correct.