Russian plane vanishes from radar after take-off from Black Sea resort of Sochi

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Jax49 said:
It is a known flaw; not something they just detected. MOO
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a known flaw would be fixed, these planes have been flying since the 70's with an excellent safety record, im finding it very hard to believe a "design flaw" caused this
 
Just to mention, from what I've read, it seems that the group on the plane - singers, musicians and dancers - are also known as the Red Army Choir.

This is a huge cultural tragedy for Russia.
 
JohnPaul said:
a known flaw would be fixed, these planes have been flying since the 70's with an excellent safety record, im finding it very hard to believe a "design flaw" caused this
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jjenny said:
Pilot had a lot of experience. So presumably he would know about this.
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JP, I don't know why it wasn't corrected or even when it was identified, but statements in MSM indicate it wasn't fixed.

Totally agree Jenny. That's why I don't think the known flaw caused the crash.

ETA: I do wonder if it might have been part of a series of events. Whenever I hear aviation experts discussing crashes they often mention a cascade of failures or multiple mistakes by the crew.
 
Really? said:
Anyone remember what hip song that choir of military sang.?.......god bless them all.
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Not sure what you mean by "hip", but I believe their signature number was the Russian folk song Kalinka.

[video=youtube;lOfvkmJ7AR0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOfvkmJ7AR0[/video]
 
Russian Folk Songs - Red Army Choir

[video=youtube;Q-jsXGLysCU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-jsXGLysCU[/video]

Nicknamed the "cultural paratroopers". Such a loss.
 
A bit of luck in this sad tragedy..

http://www.citynews.ca/2016/12/25/choir-tragedy-a-look-at-russian-ensemble-wiped-out-by-crash/
The 186-member ensemble includes a band and a dancing troupe along with the choir that had about 70 singers. Viktor Yeliseyev, head of the rival choir of the Russian National Guard, said most of the Alexandrov Ensemble’s singers were on the plane.

Among the few who stayed back was soloist Vadim Ananyev, whose wife just delivered a baby and pleaded with him to remain at home to help. The couple has three small children.

“I feel as if I were hit over the head,” he said. “I still can’t believe it. They are telling me now I was born with a silver spoon.”
The Interfax news agency said another member of the choir was denied access to board at the last minute because his foreign passport has expired.
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rbbm.
 
Jax49 said:
JP, I don't know why it wasn't corrected or even when it was identified, but statements in MSM indicate it wasn't fixed.

Totally agree Jenny. That's why I don't think the known flaw caused the crash.

ETA: I do wonder if it might have been part of a series of events. Whenever I hear aviation experts discussing crashes they often mention a cascade of failures or multiple mistakes by the crew.
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I find it hard to believe this was caused by a pilot's error right now. Pilot is described as very experienced. Weather conditions were described as good. Speed of the plane at the take off described as normal. Pilot never contacted ground for help or said there were any technical issues. Supposedly wreckage is covering up a lot of space, suggesting plane came apart in the air. So what would cause something like that?
 
I understood that the stop in Sochi was for refueling only, so it seems likely those on the plane had been flying on it for several hours before the crash. If there was a bomb on board it must have been loaded at the plane's original departure point, so why would it not have gone off earlier unless it was on a timer? I'm obviously not an aviation expert, but this does seem to me to support a non-terrorist event such as a bird strike or sudden catastrophic failure of some sort.

I wonder if there are any eye witness reports from local civilians.
 
CARIIS said:
One victim was called Dr Liza

Dr. Lisa,........ for many years engaged in medical care for those who fall outside the attention of the society, especially of the relatively disadvantaged of society, what we are witnessing today in the former Soviet Union: in particular, the homeless, the poor and the terminally ill. In this capacity, she leads "Fair Aid" charity fund

Heading toward military base.

39 fatal accident for this type since 1968

Rt



http://www.svoboda.org/a/26671562.html
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Her husband Gleb is a very good friend of my father's. She was an inspiring woman!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
jjenny said:
I find it hard to believe this was caused by a pilot's error right now. Pilot is described as very experienced. Weather conditions were described as good. Speed of the plane at the take off described as normal. Pilot never contacted ground for help or said there were any technical issues. Supposedly wreckage is covering up a lot of space, suggesting plane came apart in the air. So what would cause something like that?
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IMO that is Russian hype!! 3000 hours is low. I have only heard of one flightcrews hours , and it was 3000 hours.

[FONT=&amp] With adjustment for age, pilots who had 5,000–9,999 hours of total flight time at baseline had a 57% lower risk of a crash than their less experienced counterparts

[/FONT][FONT=&amp]he protective effect of flight experience leveled off after total flight time reached 10,000 hours.

st some example from past crashes:

[/FONT]captain on the Turkish plane that crashed at Amsterdam had ~15,000 hrs

Sullenberger almost 20,000 hrs and his first officer 15,000+

Connors had logged over 29,300

 Price had logged 6,500 flight hours
ogged around 22,000 flying hours

 experienced: 9,275 hours and 15,000 hours respectively,

Airplane history is someone confusing. Metal fatigue, is figured basically by number of cycles a plane has (Takeoff/landing = 1 "cycle". ) She had very very low cycles. But in terms of fatigue , her age (built) does have to come into play as it relates to possible explosive decompression for several reasons:

Russia does not have a sterling safety or maintenance record! This would be even more true in the 80''s!!

For 2016 out of 60 airlines aerfloat came in at 36 as it relates to safety record

The type was not all that sterling either!

Tu-154 - Russian workhorse with poor safety record

110 serious incidents involving the Tu-154,[SUP][28][/SUP] and 69 hull losses, 30 of which did not involve fatalities

As they get older they lease them out . I only found one
[FONT=&amp]RA-85572 while on lease to Korsar, in Aeroflot colors. But these are really small guys so their maintenance is even worse. So at one point she was working for a really airline! I would vote more she is old! But it is Russia what can say - not exactly an open place in the 801's!

[/FONT]Then the military takes her, minimal hours of use. So we have an old lady, that is basically sitting around a tarmac a lot. One can find more issues in a car that is being driven regularly than one that sits in a garage!

I assume some of them had their instruments on board, I have no idea of weight in that regard but worthy of notice. What if center of gravity shifted.

There are mountains near the airport and they can create sudden wind events that are not on radar and very sudden.

. Because of the presence of natural obstacles (mountains) to the north and north-east of the airport, take off and landing are only possible on the sea side of the facility

Only a guess on my part , if they continue with no terrorism, I would think explosive decompression is most ligkely - age, metal fatigue. Most of the time their is not time for a mayday when that happens.

Its u turn tho is baffling. Were they trying to get back to the airport or were they disoriented - an instrument fails and they lose situational awareness. Air France classic disorientation

 inability to correctly interpret aircraft attitude, altitude or airspeed, in relation to the Earth or point of reference, especially after a reference point (e.g., the horizon) has been lost. Spatial disorientation is a condition in which an aircraft pilot's perception of direction does not agree with reality


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-154#Incidents_and_accidents
[FONT=&amp]
[/FONT]http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/157/10/874.full

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sochi_International_Airport#Incidents_and_accidents

http://www.jacdec.de/airline-safety-reports/

https://www.rte.ie/news/2016/1225/841205-tu-154-record/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spatial_disorientation
[FONT=&amp]
[/FONT]
 
Here is what happens when a planes center of gravity shifts (in this-- a military truck became unanchored - crashed into other trucks and went all over the place and plane center of gravity shifted)

Some of the trucks were found on the runway -- so basically they just crashed out of back of the plane

- look at how masterful they were in getting wings level amazing

.

graphic

[video=youtube;-MB9JDBe4wA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MB9JDBe4wA[/video]
 
MelmothTheLost said:
I understood that the stop in Sochi was for refueling only, so it seems likely those on the plane had been flying on it for several hours before the crash. If there was a bomb on board it must have been loaded at the plane's original departure point, so why would it not have gone off earlier unless it was on a timer? I'm obviously not an aviation expert, but this does seem to me to support a non-terrorist event such as a bird strike or sudden catastrophic failure of some sort.

I wonder if there are any eye witness reports from local civilians.
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No. It hasn't been flying for hours. It crashed minutes after take off. I've seen some articles say 2 minutes and some 20 minutes.
 
jjenny said:
No. It hasn't been flying for hours. It crashed minutes after take off. I've seen some articles say 2 minutes and some 20 minutes.
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It had a two hour segment from Moscow before landing a Sochi

You know what just hit me all that nonsense in the beginning that because it was a military plane it could not be terrorism

If you think it about a military plane flying to a navy base in war torn Syria, actually might increase the want to do something to it?

The public would not know that 2/3 of the passengers were a choral group.

So..... if it was terrorism, it would, IMO have to have been planted in Moscow, no one knew it was diverting from its planned refuel stop.

Only three people interacted with the aircraft during the refuel.

It also would add motivation for them in hours to rule out terrorism - cause if that was it , it occurred inMoscow. (Staff/or passenger boarding ) no one boarded at Sochi.

I don't think they would want their major airport exposed for lax security, OR having aircraft handlers at that airport putting bombs in planes-

that is a big deal

that impacts $$$$$$$ and $ rules all

just a ponder!!
 
[video=youtube;Yu_sViNgRwk]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yu_sViNgRwk[/video]

humm do ya think Moscow might know a lot more than letting on ??
 
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