Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[RedHaus]

This may be premature, but perhaps its time we take a little inventory of possible answers to @sundaaaay's question, based on our near 100 pages of discussion. So let me take a stab at summarizing where we are, sparing all the data that may or may not support each possibility.

IMO these are possible answers:

1. Hiking Accident or Drowning 11/22 - instant fatality or perished from injuries before rescued, in any of the following locations:

A. Between meeting with skier on Pic de S, the summit of Pic de S, or her subsequent decent to Port de V (very small area)
B. Between Port de V and her van in Banasque if she decided to abort her adventure that day (e.g. hunger, thirst, belly ache)
C. Between Port de V and Refuge de V (very small area) at either:

i. 4:30/5:30pm if she summitted Pic de S, or
ii. 3:30/4:00pm if she did not re-summit Pic de S​

D. Between Refuge de V and Hospice de France OR Chemin de l'impératrice (depending on clockwise or anti-clockwise loop)​

2. Hiking Accident or Drowning 11/23 or 11/24 - instant fatality or perished from injuries before rescued, in any of the following locations:

A. Between Refuge de V and Hospice de France or Chemin de l'impératrice (depending on clockwise or anti-clockwise loop)
B. Between H de F or C de L'i if she made it to either location for the night of 11/22
C. Between H de F and Bagneres du Luchon if she in fact did pursue an alternative route that the 70 year old hiker "heard" (see image below)
​

3. Perished in her Sleep due to Hypothermia while bivoacing 11/22 or 11/23, in any of the following locations:

A. Between Port de V and her van in Banasque if she decided to abort but too late to hike back to her van
B. Between Refuge de V and H de F or C de l'i (depending on clockwise or anti-clockwise loop)
C. Between H de F or C de L'i if she made it to either location for the night of 11/22
D. Between H de F and Bagneres du Luchon if she in fact did pursue an alternative route that the 70 year old hiker "heard" (see image below)
​

4. Voluntary Disappearance 11/22-11/24 (aka could still be alive), via three possible routes:

A. via road(s) out of Banasque
B. via road(s) out of H de F
C. via road(s) out of B du L
​

5. Involuntary Disappearance 11/22-24 (abduction, kidnapping, murder), likely near civilization rather than in high country, in these areas:

A. Banasque if she descended to return to her van aborting (11/22 or 23) or ending as planned (11/24) her adventure
B. Bagneres du Luchon if she in fact pursued that alternative route that the 70 year old hiker "heard"
​

OK - I put these out there from the best of my ability to assimilate everyone's thinking so far...

Is it premature to inventory possibilities like this? Are any possibilities missing? And if we're ready to digest further, which of these resonate more than others?

Thanks to @Ruthbullock pointing out the map I attached to this post from earlier this evening was from an unreliable source (DM), I would like to replace the map I used to illustrate possible routes with this new one I constructed based on Ruthbullock's version. I think this will help many of us visualize the possibilities I outlined.

 

[RedHaus]

dbm - dupe

 

[Recliner]

UK hills are not mountains

I don't believe this statement is relevant to ED's disappearance but either way, it is factually incorrect. The Mountains in the UK may not be as high as the Pyrenees but they present challenges of their own in terms of terrain and weather.
They also claim several lives every year.

 

[mrjitty]

I don't believe this statement is relevant to ED's disappearance but either way, it is factually incorrect. The Mountains in the UK may not be as high as the Pyrenees but they present challenges of their own in terms of terrain and weather.
They also claim several lives every year.

We see this every year in NZ with tourists in the summer

People think it takes snow and altitude to die. In reality you can get exposure and die quickly in temperatures above zero

 

[The_Investigator]

That’s a good id

BBM

This may be premature, but perhaps its time we take a little inventory of possible answers to @sundaaaay's question, based on our near 100 pages of discussion. So let me take a stab at summarizing where we are, sparing all the data that may or may not support each possibility.

IMO these are possible answers:

1. Hiking Accident or Drowning 11/22 - instant fatality or perished from injuries before rescued, in any of the following locations:

A. Between meeting with skier on Pic de S, the summit of Pic de S, or her subsequent decent to Port de V (very small area)
B. Between Port de V and her van in Banasque if she decided to abort her adventure that day (e.g. hunger, thirst, belly ache)
C. Between Port de V and Refuge de V (very small area) at either:

i. 4:30/5:30pm if she summitted Pic de S, or
ii. 3:30/4:00pm if she did not re-summit Pic de S​

D. Between Refuge de V and Hospice de France OR Chemin de l'impératrice (depending on clockwise or anti-clockwise loop)​

2. Hiking Accident or Drowning 11/23 or 11/24 - instant fatality or perished from injuries before rescued, in any of the following locations:

A. Between Refuge de V and Hospice de France or Chemin de l'impératrice (depending on clockwise or anti-clockwise loop)
B. Between H de F or C de L'i if she made it to either location for the night of 11/22
C. Between H de F and Bagneres du Luchon if she in fact did pursue an alternative route that the 70 year old hiker "heard" (see image below)
​

3. Perished in her Sleep due to Hypothermia while bivoacing 11/22 or 11/23, in any of the following locations:

A. Between Port de V and her van in Banasque if she decided to abort but too late to hike back to her van
B. Between Refuge de V and H de F or C de l'i (depending on clockwise or anti-clockwise loop)
C. Between H de F or C de L'i if she made it to either location for the night of 11/22
D. Between H de F and Bagneres du Luchon if she in fact did pursue an alternative route that the 70 year old hiker "heard" (see image below)
​

4. Voluntary Disappearance 11/22-11/24 (aka could still be alive), via three possible routes:

A. via road(s) out of Banasque
B. via road(s) out of H de F
C. via road(s) out of B du L
​

5. Involuntary Disappearance 11/22-24 (abduction, kidnapping, murder), likely near civilization rather than in high country, in these areas:

A. Banasque if she descended to return to her van aborting (11/22 or 23) or ending as planned (11/24) her adventure
B. Bagneres du Luchon if she in fact pursued that alternative route that the 70 year old hiker "heard"
​

OK - I put these out there from the best of my ability to assimilate everyone's thinking so far...

Is it premature to inventory possibilities like this? Are any possibilities missing? And if we're ready to digest further, which of these resonate more than others?

​

​

That is a great summary of possible solutions. Apparently it often is the simplest. So based on your excellent summary, simply she pushed herself onto go over the border as she told the man who gave her a lift and had a fall, rucksack and all into a gully, or one of those sinkholes mentioned a long way back in the thread, apparently locals have gone missing and never been found, there was an underground map of one of these holes showing how deep and narrow they go, .... does anyone know more details of these underground type crevices, holes?

 

[The_Investigator]

That’s a good id

That is a great summary of possible solutions. Apparently it often is the simplest. So based on your excellent summary, simply she pushed herself onto go over the border to The French town,.. as she told the man who gave her a lift and had a fall, rucksack and all into a gully, or one of those sinkholes mentioned a long way back in the thread, apparently locals have gone missing and never been found, there was an underground map of one of these holes showing how deep and narrow they go, .... does anyone know more details of these underground type crevices, holes?

Oh, and in the direction of the French town she mentioned as her newer proposed route to the driver.

 

[jsoap]

Personally, I always switch to aeroplane mode when in the mountains. The problem is that the phone uses up a lot more power trying to connect to distant cell towers, and I rely on offline maps/gps for navigation.

 

[RickshawFan]

I don't believe this statement is relevant to ED's disappearance but either way, it is factually incorrect. The Mountains in the UK may not be as high as the Pyrenees but they present challenges of their own in terms of terrain and weather.
They also claim several lives every year.

Mount Washington in NH USA would be another great example of low but deadly. It's only 6000 ish feet, but a notorious death zone. Some of the worst weather in the world.

Here's an example of a terrible accident on Mount Washington (which is a walk-up, not technical at all): Outdoors Mag

 

[RickshawFan]

See this photo? I believe it's from the top of the Pic. It's the reason I think ED might have headed for the Hospice even though it wasn't her original plan to go anti-clockwise.

She might not even have known its status, but internet outside might have been a big draw for her.

The Hospice is just sitting there, right at you feet. It looks so close and easy to get to...

Source: Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

 

[Sillybilly]

ADMIN NOTE:

Posts suggesting a hoax are not allowed. They have been removed along with all responses.

Please see the previous Admin Note in this regard and post accordingly:

This is a missing persons case and there is nothing in MSM or from LE to indicate this is a hoax.

One of the very basic principles of Websleuths is that we are Victim Friendly. That is one of the main differences between Websleuths vs other rag-mag types of sites where anything goes.

Theories and speculation that a hoax is involved are NOT victim friendly. Members who suggest that to be the case will be removed from this discussion.

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Websleuths is a victim friendly forum. Attacking or bashing a victim is not allowed. Discussing victim behavior, good or bad is fine, but do so in a civil and constructive way, and only when such behavior is known to be relevant to the case.

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[otto]

See this photo? I believe it's from the top of the Pic. It's the reason I think ED might have headed for the Hospice even though it wasn't her original plan to go anti-clockwise.

She might not even have known its status, but internet outside might have been a big draw for her.

The Hospice is just sitting there, right at you feet. It looks so close and easy to get to...

Source: Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

Let's suppose ...

• 4 PM wifi access at the Pic de Sauvegarde
• 4:30 PM Port de Venasque
• 5:00 PM Refuge de Venasque (may have bypassed)
• 5:30 PM sunset
• 6:45 PM Hospice de France
  • shortest time reported by hikers is 2H15M from Port de Venasque to Hospice de France, requires bypassing the Refuge de Venasque

That would suggest that she could be missing closer to the Hospice de France. She had climbed a lot of mountains. Would she make the rookie mistake of hiking at night?

At 5:00 PM she would have been in the shadow of the mountain, the temperature would be dropping, and she was aware of sunset times. If she needed to replenish water, the best option was near the Refuge de Venasque. Additionally, people sometimes leave food at hostels for the next guest. If she needed food, the best bet was to stop at the refuge.

I'm leaning towards her plan to stay overnight at the refuge, possibly hike to the Hospice de France the following day, but not hiking there after sunset.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Oh, and in the direction of the French town she mentioned as her newer proposed route to the driver.

Correction: the French town she may have mentioned during a short car journey, wearing a face mask, while both people were trying to converse in their non-native languages.

I think it got lost (or at the very least muddled) in translation.

 

[Puzzles]

See this photo? I believe it's from the top of the Pic. It's the reason I think ED might have headed for the Hospice even though it wasn't her original plan to go anti-clockwise.

She might not even have known its status, but internet outside might have been a big draw for her.

The Hospice is just sitting there, right at you feet. It looks so close and easy to get to...

Source: Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

BBM

“We have searched a very large area – 28 sq km in all – with specialist mountain teams, with dogs, with helicopters all along the route she said she was taking, and there is nothing. It’s not a particularly difficult route and at the time she was on the mountain the weather was good,” he said. Source: The Guardian. Dec. 11

Had I not read the Susan McLean thread on WS, I'd be confident SAR/LE had searched the trail from the Pic to the Hospice and the area surrounding it.

RickshawFan's idea of a possible change in plans becomes, IMO, a probable one when we consider the following:
- MSM reported there is no evidence ED reached the Refuge de Venasque.
- Had she followed her plan to spend the night of Nov. 22 at the Refuge de Venasque, and left the peak soon after the reported selfie taken on the Pic and sent to DC around 4pm, she would have reached the Refuge de Venasque around 4:30 - 5:30
- ED wrote earlier of her reluctance to reach a refuge in the late afternoon with hours to pass before sleeptime.
- From DC, Source: BBC NEWS Dec. 1: "Taking into account Esther's high level of experience, the nature of the terrain, the good weather she would have had, the fact she had a clearly defined route for Sunday evening and Monday, and various other factors, both search coordinators have essentially told me that the prevailing opinion in the search teams is that she isn't there."

If indeed she went to the Hospice, it would offer support to the claim from DC that (quote) "after extensive searches 'the prevailing opinion' is she is not in the mountains." Source: BBC News. Dec. 1.

Q. Has anyone found a direct quote from SAR/LE which could verify their stated opinion?
If so, IMO it's more probable ED aimed for the Hospice on Nov. 22, especially if she was cold, fatigued, her food and water supply was depleted, and/or she was aware of an imminent change in weather.

 

[RickshawFan]

Let's suppose ...

• 4 PM wifi access at the Pic de Sauvegarde
• 4:30 PM Port de Venasque
• 5:00 PM Refuge de Venasque (may have bypassed)
• 5:30 PM sunset
• 6:45 PM Hospice de France
  • shortest time reported by hikers is 2H15M from Port de Venasque to Hospice de France, requires bypassing the Refuge de Venasque

That would suggest that she could be missing closer to the Hospice de France. She had climbed a lot of mountains. Would she make the rookie mistake of hiking at night?

At 5:00 PM she would have been in the shadow of the mountain, the temperature would be dropping, and she was aware of sunset times. If she needed to replenish water, the best option was near the Refuge de Venasque. Additionally, people sometimes leave food at hostels for the next guest. If she needed food, the best bet was to stop at the refuge.

I'm leaning towards her plan to stay overnight at the refuge, possibly hike to the Hospice de France the following day, but not hiking there after sunset.

Something like that. But I'm thinking she used the trail that bypasses the Refuge and headed up the first batch of switchbacks towards the Hospice. She somewhat prided herself on her willingness to bivouac, so I think she might have overnighted right there, maybe even out in the open, as she did another time.

I'm thinking she might have tried to bivouac like this in the photo, and the tent blew away, meaning the one bit of color she had was no longer with her.

This photo is from E&D's FB November 7.

 

[The_Investigator]

Was the weather going to change after her last evening summit? I didn’t think it was so I’m worried she camped out again, with her tent cover just draped over her sleeping bag, high up from the route into France. There is the previous picture of that sleeping arrangement with the sun going down in the background. Please notes several things about it that she may have repeated on the next open sleep; she like to be in the open, high up, near a stream, views, perhaps towards morning sun? All things she said in books, blog, etc,.. personally I’d be snug in the woods or behind a cave, big rock, but she liked the opposite, do you think she could have been blown in her sleeping bag down into a gully in the night? Just thinking of the precarious position of her open sleep in a previous picture, on a slope, high up,... really risky, horrid to think that may have happened,... this would be on the route into
France, pretty sure she was itching to go there.

 

[RickshawFan]

BBM

“We have searched a very large area – 28 sq km in all – with specialist mountain teams, with dogs, with helicopters all along the route she said she was taking, and there is nothing. It’s not a particularly difficult route and at the time she was on the mountain the weather was good,” he said. Source: The Guardian. Dec. 11

Had I not read the Susan McLean thread on WS, I'd be confident SAR/LE had searched the trail from the Pic to the Hospice and the area surrounding it.

RickshawFan's idea of a possible change in plans becomes, IMO, a probable one when we consider the following:
- MSM reported there is no evidence ED reached the Refuge de Venasque.
- Had she followed her plan to spend the night of Nov. 22 at the Refuge de Venasque, and left the peak soon after the reported selfie taken on the Pic and sent to DC around 4pm, she would have reached the Refuge de Venasque around 4:30 - 5:30
- ED wrote earlier of her reluctance to reach a refuge in the late afternoon with hours to pass before sleeptime.
- From DC, Source: BBC NEWS Dec. 1: "Taking into account Esther's high level of experience, the nature of the terrain, the good weather she would have had, the fact she had a clearly defined route for Sunday evening and Monday, and various other factors, both search coordinators have essentially told me that the prevailing opinion in the search teams is that she isn't there."

If indeed she went to the Hospice, it would offer support to the claim from DC that (quote) "after extensive searches 'the prevailing opinion' is she is not in the mountains." Source: BBC News. Dec. 1.

Q. Has anyone found a direct quote from SAR/LE which could verify their stated opinion?
If so, IMO it's more probable ED aimed for the Hospice on Nov. 22, especially if she was cold, fatigued, her food and water supply was depleted, and/or she was aware of an imminent change in weather.

I'll add that it's moot whether the Hospice was closed or open and/or whether ED knew the status. Simply, she might have been attracted to wifi possibilities. All she'd have had to do is camp outside the building....
Around here, wifi is so gappy, people do this all the time. You'll see them in mid-winter, even -20F, parked outside libraries in their cars, using the internet.

 

[The_Investigator]

Something like that. But I'm thinking she used the trail that bypasses the Refuge and headed up the first batch of switchbacks towards the Hospice. She somewhat prided herself on her willingness to bivouac, so I think she might have overnighted right there, maybe even out in the open, as she did another time.

I'm thinking she might have tried to bivouac like this in the photo, and the tent blew away, meaning the one bit of color she had was no longer with her.

This photo is from E&D's FB November 7.

Completely agree, been thinking about that all day, could easily blow her away whist inside the sleeping bag at night,.. I’ve nearly had the same happen to me before, and you can’t get out in time to get everything that blew away. In the long trek they took earlier in the year, her jacket blew away whilst they were both drying out the tent on a slope,.. how silly doing that on a windy slope?... and DC had to go down the slope to get it, it was careless, but may have been DCs fault but think it was her jacket that blew away,..

 

[sundaaaay]

And what are the possibility she fell into the large lake by the trail from the Pic de Sauvegarde to the refuge. Let’s face it, often on here when someone goes missing we later find out they are in water, although I understand there are many more places for a body to be in a landscape such as this. My issue with the water is that wouldn’t she float with her pack bag contents such as a sleeping bag and air mattress which would hold a lot of air. Is there a possibility the cold temperatures at night would make her sink faster, or that she floated into the middle during the night and then sank early morning.

 

[RickshawFan]

Oh, my gosh, I love this guy! He's our friendly bloggist with all the photos of our relevant loop+Pic at Randonnée Pic Sauvegarde 2738m – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

Here, he rates levels of experience. Detailed. What experience looks like, what you'd be expected to take, how you're expected to behave.

He rates the loop as Randonneur-level. Interestingly, it looks like he and his buddies did the whole loop in 7 hours, but that might exclude the Pic. Officially, the loop seems to be rated at 8 hours, though I can't really tell; I would expect this to be the rate for most people, since these guys are hellish fit. Someone can correct me if I'm misunderstanding the French.

Anyway, here are his "rules of engagement": Les Niveaux de difficultés – Les Topos Pyrénées par Mariano

His entry-level is a 5 hour walk, lol.
His rated requirement for the Pic loop (I'm thinking not the Pic itself) would be: ability to hike 8 hours at a whack, with descent equal to or less than 3/4 of the time it takes to ascend (seriously); also requires orienting and map-reading skill.
Then he gives a very nice list of recommendations and expectations for (all) trips.

 

[Cryptic]

I'm thinking she might have tried to bivouac like this in the photo, and the tent blew away, meaning the one bit of color she had was no longer with her.

In your experience, and....lets say she had dry clothes,

Could she likely be able to survive a very uncomfortable night on the mountain and perhaps another night at lower elevations in the general area just by staying mobile and constantly taking trails to lower elevations (even if lost)?

Likewise, I wonder if she could she have eventually reached a paved road in an exhausted state, started to hitchhike, and then encountered a dangerous person?