Theory Thread - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Status
Not open for further replies.
Well you do seem hellbent on implying that OP will get bail. You've posted that Dadic article a number of times, seemed to ignore the law norm and circumstances of OP's case and in one case even changed the race of someone to help strengthen your point! I'm not going to play tit-for-tat and list innumerable cases where bail wasn't granted but let's just to look at the ones you posted. The majority of murder cases have no bail pending appeal, but you found some which have some extraordinary circumstances, some completely irrelevant to OP:

First case: if you read the actual judgement on his bail (http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZAECPEHC/2014/34.html), at point 9, you can see that this guy tipped the police off before the robbery and because this may likely result in an appeal being upheld, bail was granted.

Second case: the guy was actually REFUSED bail pending appeal twice. He was incarcerated straight after sentencing. He then tried again but was still denied. The court said "The general attitude of a court is that when an accused person is still awaiting trial and where there is no indication that the interests of justice might be prejudiced that such an accused person should be released on bail on suitable conditions pending his trial. The notion is underpinned by the presumption of innocence against any accused person, which exists in our law. However, once an accused person has been convicted and sentenced, the position changes radically, because the presumption of innocence against the accused is no longer applicable and the court now knows for a fact that an accused person has in fact been convicted. . ."

Then, only after the appeal against the original convictions were allowed, and the state chose not to file an opposition (which the judge seemes to imply was a mistake by the state calling it "unfortunate" and listing it under the condonation section) the judge gave leave. So this wasn't bail pending appeal at all.

Third case: bail was granted due to "a state witness who had implicated Mr Wolmarans and Mr Matshaba in Mr Phakoe’s murder — stated after the trial that he had lied on the witness stand." and "the evidence on which the high court relied to convict his clients had glaring holes."

So these cases are rather unique.

And the other articles you posted imply that the norm is sending convicted murderers away to prison straightaway ("The basic rule is that the conviction and sentence are not suspended pending the appeal, so the appellant must go to prison ")

ETA: Masipa has conducted this trial as incredibly fair as she has to avoid this eventuality. If I can make an assumption, she probably had an inkling that OP was guilty as hell from the beginning and wanted to make sure he got the fairest of fair trials. Remember that there is a difference between bail pending appeal and bail once an appeal has been granted. I'm sure Roux will manage to secure an appeal process on a dubious ground or two but even then I doubt there will be sufficient likelihood of that appeal's success in order to sway any judge to grant leave while it's being processed, let alone before it's even been granted!

Thank you for that awesome post. I don't understand why some want to propagate the falsehood that convicted murderers in South Africa can easily get and usually get released on bail pending the verdict of whatever appeals that they may file. Its just weird, shaking my head. Also, because it will be the next "but" that someone will raise, wealth and race are not factors; recently two wealthy convicted murders were denied bail pending appeal, one is a famous (black) singer and the other is a respected (white) doctor.
 
Thank you for that awesome post. I don't understand why some want to propagate the falsehood that convicted murderers in South Africa can easily get and usually get released on bail pending the verdict of whatever appeals that they may file. Its just weird, shaking my head. Also, because it will be the next "but" that someone will raise, wealth and race are not factors; recently two wealthy convicted murders were denied bail pending appeal, one is a famous (black) singer and the other is a respected (white) doctor.



BIB I have never said that.


I am only trying to point out that it is possible for defendents to be allowed bail, even when convicted for murder. I feel there are a few members who are appearing to have an "ostrichlike" view of what can happen. I have never said OP would EASILY get bail. That is not at all what I wrote. I felt it needed to be pointed out that it is a possibility.

eimajjjj is of the opinion that it is not possible. I think it should not be possible but have attempted to show that it may be possible. That is all.
 
You know, maybe it's because a South African lawyer has said he almost certainly will. I'm talking about David Dadic, not a criminal lawyer himself, but when he has said this a few times he has not been contradicted by the criminal lawyers he's been talking to. Actually, they agreed with him.

So perhaps that's why some people think this might happen....because REAL experts say so.

But you disagree. So that's fine and dandy.
 
7 days. It's going to be fascinating to hear Masipa's analysis of the testimony, evidence and arguments as well as the verdicts.

Seeing as how Masipa managed to have both the defence and prosecution finish their HOA in a day each, I hope that Masipa can limit her verdict to one day as well so that at the end of the day, we know what charges he is found guilty/innocent of.
 
I saw it too, but ages ago, maybe just after Reeva was murdered, I'm sure we're not BOTH delusional.

I think there's going to be a whole heap of stuff that comes out after he's convicted. It's already trickling out now.

BIB, Like what?
 
You know, maybe it's because a South African lawyer has said he almost certainly will. I'm talking about David Dadic, not a criminal lawyer himself, but when he has said this a few times he has not been contradicted by the criminal lawyers he's been talking to. Actually, they agreed with him.

So perhaps that's why some people think this might happen....because REAL experts say so.

But you disagree. So that's fine and dandy.

Your post shows the "drive by" mentality associated with the discussion of this issue as well as many other issues here, by some, IMO. Granted Dadic stated what the "next steps" are for OP after he is convicted, but Dadic did not discuss the likelihood of OP prevailing on either an Appeal or a request to remain free pending the results of any appeal(s). Most here understand, from doing research, that OP is highly unlikely to be granted bail pending his appeal(s) unless his attorneys discover some gross defect in the prosecution's case that they were unaware of prior to OPs upcoming convictions. Is that fine and dandy too?
 
Good question. But I saw those photos too. In the DAily Mail, long ago. I wonder when they were taken?

If you review some of the court info, taking the following from lisasalinger's report into account, then it appears there could have been alot of info that may or may not have been admissable as evidence due to incorrect procedure. I would imagine the whole issue with the bedroom door and RS's purse may have fallen into that category, though I still don't get why OP's 0020 phone was allowed without a proper chain of custody unless there were admissions/concessions made in the judge's chamber to not put any weight on that evidence and to only use it to advance the timeline?(reminds me of JA's phone that had gone missing for 2? years then suddenly appeared with incriminating pics and texts that appeared to put JA in the role of victim...but was still allowed as evidence).

http://juror13lw.wordpress.com/2014/03/14/oscar-pistorius-trial-days-9-and-10-crime-scene-photos/
It is determined that the date on the photo is not the correct year. This was not from the official photographer’s camera, therefore Nel will not even proceed with it because it’s of no value. It was a trick by the Defense. That photo was clearly not from the original scene, but of the scene taken much later by somebody else’s camera, likely another officer (as these are photos that were provided by the police).
 
Thank you for that awesome post. I don't understand why some want to propagate the falsehood that convicted murderers in South Africa can easily get and usually get released on bail pending the verdict of whatever appeals that they may file. Its just weird, shaking my head. Also, because it will be the next "but" that someone will raise, wealth and race are not factors; recently two wealthy convicted murders were denied bail pending appeal, one is a famous (black) singer and the other is a respected (white) doctor.


This makes for some interesting reading -

http://apps.ufs.ac.za/courts/dl/system/courts/supreme_court/judgements/2007/3/2007-439.pdf

http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Farmers-son-also-held-for-murder-20101122
 
Is anyone else getting nervous about the outcome?

When I see articles like this I begin to wonder what it will be (regardless of what I feel). I know if I had been on a Jury with a replica case I would have gone for murder. It seems from various votes this is the opinion of over 90 per cent of the public.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...car-pistorius-might-be-found-not-guilty.html#

Eboni K. Williams facebooktweetpost World News 03.06.144 Reasons Oscar Pistorius Might Be Found Not Guilty - See more at: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...be-found-not-guilty.html#sthash.78HXgZbE.dpuf

bbm - Absolutely! I lived and breathed OJ's trial because I was recovering from major surgery at the time and was honestly devastated that the jury had fallen for the glove trick and Cochrane's accompanying mantra. That was the moment I lost trust in the judicial system and most definitely is where a lot of my cynicism concerning these cases come from.
 
Forgive my ignorance but if the family posted bail for OP and he 'did a runner'.... so to speak.
Would the poster of the bail not then be held accountable for OP's actions.
Like a guarantor would be with a mortgage, or the like?
Sorry if this is a silly question I just can't see how he would be allowed to just 'disappear' if convicted and then let out on bail without someone being held to account!

I would hope there would be more than just the loss of the bond at stake(that is what it's for), but I wouldn't hold my breath. The most you could hope for would be that the PT could get proof that there were accomplice's in his "escape", but when's all said and done you can be sure that anything incriminating would disappear faster than RS's handbag from the crime scene.
 
From the court papers linked above:

"A substantial number of applications for bail pending a further appeal are launched as a dilatory tactic."
 
Just finished skimming the defence HOD, I think it's a valiant effort to make the improbable plausible. Roux does seem like he is shuffling facts and trying to discredit witness's like Stipps and fudge times to create reasonable doubt etc.

Possibly the worst miscalculation was the brief statement that Pistorius' circumstances could be seen as the same light as an abused woman syndrome. Such a miscalculation about the direction of the prosecution evidence and the mindset of court & public sentiment, quite stunning.

I think it's a slamdunk case for murder. Can't go into depth on my mobile but I'm 50/50 whether Masipa and advisors will go for eventualis or directus.

It's highly solid case for eventualis but convicting on directus depends on the weight they apply to the inconsistent and improbable Pistorius testimony and the ear witness testimony.

Hard to discuss sentencing because the mitigation and experts from State and defense will be a mini-trial in and of itself. From looking at the SA Griekwastad trial, the sentencing could also be a drawn out process and perhaps controversial decision.

Stunning is right, K.T. Got to have massive, brass huevos to present “abused woman syndrome” at the 11th hour (but then, most everything Defense has done has been at the 11th hour...tailoring evidence does seem to be a late-night endeavor. LOL).

Such a strategy really is brazen in the extreme, not to mention quite desperate. (Wonder whose bright idea it was, Roux or OP?) What a shameless, last-ditch attempt to play on My Lady's tender sympathies. I have to think My Lady was NOT amused.

Roux’s offensive analogy is bizarre - OP has NO documented history of being “abused” (in his case, “GAD”, fear, vulnerability, etc.). His has NO documented history of being a crime victim (except in his imagination).

He was not “abused” that night, nor was he “attacked” - he was never even “threatened” in the least!

What, then, was the provocation to "snap", to shoot four Black Talons through a closed door?!

If a “noise” or “sound” or “fear” is all it takes, I would have been a serial killer a hundred times over! LOL

An acquittal by Judge Masipa would set extremely dangerous precedent - one could get away with murder simply by pleading “I was scared!”.

The bathroom repair business, however, would boom.
 
One week before the verdict ... what do you think is going through Oscar's mind right NOW?
 
It occurred to me that no matter who was behind that door, Oscar would have been faced with an injured or murdered human being.

Why wouldn't he call Security for help immediately, even if he thought there was an intruder in that toilet room. If his version were true, he still HAD to know there was an injured or dead person behind that door after he fired the shots.

He says it wasn't until THEN that all of a sudden "it dawns on him" that he hasn't heard any response from Reeva, but he says he still spends valuable time scruffling around in the bedroom looking behind curtains, etc., for her, while a dead or injured person bleeds in his toilet. Really, Oscar? She maybe was hiding behind the curtains???

His whole story is a such a huge, stinkin' crock. :pinocchio:

Wow kittychi !! Really great post from beginning to end !!

BBM - Wish Nel had asked that question.

I literally laughed out loud when I got to this part: She maybe was hiding behind the curtains???

I couldn't possibly improve on your post, but I would like to point out that OP wasn't "looking" for her, he was "feeling around in the dark" for her. :)
 
Is anyone else getting nervous about the outcome?

When I see articles like this I begin to wonder what it will be (regardless of what I feel). I know if I had been on a Jury with a replica case I would have gone for murder. It seems from various votes this is the opinion of over 90 per cent of the public.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...car-pistorius-might-be-found-not-guilty.html#

Eboni K. Williams facebooktweetpost World News 03.06.144 Reasons Oscar Pistorius Might Be Found Not Guilty - See more at: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...be-found-not-guilty.html#sthash.78HXgZbE.dpuf

BBM - Yes, I am. As of yesterday I've started feeling butterflies in my stomach.

I was googling something just before coming onbrd here and ran across a brand new article dated Sept. 3rd. !?!?retrial!?!?

ETA: http://m.theepochtimes.com/n3/93288...ould-avoid-prison-in-reeva-sttenkamp-killing/

Oscar Pistorius Trial Verdict: Even if Convicted, Pistorius Might Avoid Prison in Reeva Steenkamp Killing <snipped>

It turns out, even if Pistorius is found guilty of a lesser murder charge than premeditated murder&#8211;which would land him at least 25 years in prison&#8211;then he could avoid jail altogether.
Stephen Tuson, criminal law adjunct professor at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, added to Macleans that Pistorius&#8217; defense team laid the groundwork for an appeal, and also a mistrial.


Lawyer Barry Roux could appeal the verdict on the facts of the case, such as arguing witness evidence was accepted when it should not have been. He could also argue that the live broadcast of the trial constitutes a reviewable irregularity that denied Pistorius a fair trial, Tuson told the media outlet.

Roux hinted at that tactic earlier in the trial.

&#8220;We were unable to call a number of witnesses because they refused, and didn&#8217;t want their voices heard all over the world,&#8221; he said.


But Johannesburg-based lawyer Ulrich Roux said that witnesses actually enjoyed more protection becuase of the live broadcast of the trial. &#8220;We do a lot of high-profile cases that get reported on in newspapers. That&#8217;s exactly the same as it being broadcast on live television,&#8221; he said.

Among the other angles Roux could go for is saying that the live broadcast of the trial caused some of the witnesses to change their stories after watching the trial on television.

&#8220;I&#8217;m not saying anyone did this, but witnesses could tailor their evidence,&#8221; Tuson said, &#8220;and if that&#8217;s the finding of the court&#8212;that Pistorius did not get a fair trial&#8212;then it would just start again.&#8221;
<snipped>
 
I don't understand why some want to propagate the falsehood that convicted murderers in South Africa can easily get and usually get released on bail pending the verdict of whatever appeals that they may file. Its just weird, shaking my head. Also, because it will be the next "but" that someone will raise, wealth and race are not factors; recently two wealthy convicted murders were denied bail pending appeal, one is a famous (black) singer and the other is a respected (white) doctor.

I know I keep saying this, but I still haven't heard it addressed by any of the media lawyers.

Suppose Masipa finds him guilty on any or all of the three minor charges, and gives him a jail term. He has clearly lied about two of them, so why not? It seems to me that in other cases quoted, where there have been multiple charges, all those charges have been the subject of appeal. I cannot see how he can realistically appeal against two of those charges. The ammunition seems an open-and-shut case, and Roux has admitted liability on his behalf for the restaurant incident.

So even if there are reasons why he might be allowed bail pending the murder charge, why shouldn't he go to jail immediately on the other charges? (should that be the sentence) Masipa could avoid the whole bail issue by jailing him for another charge.
 
BIB I have never said that.


I am only trying to point out that it is possible for defendents to be allowed bail, even when convicted for murder. I feel there are a few members who are appearing to have an "ostrichlike" view of what can happen. I have never said OP would EASILY get bail. That is not at all what I wrote. I felt it needed to be pointed out that it is a possibility.

eimajjjj is of the opinion that it is not possible. I think it should not be possible but have attempted to show that it may be possible. That is all.

Let's assume OP doesn't get bail and he goes straight to prison, waiting for his appeal.

Since this is a high profile case and the first to be televised in SA, I wonder if his appeal would be fast tracked so as to give the world audience the perception of speedy justice. Sadly, OP has already been given precedence such as being an outpatient for his 30 day psych exam.
 
Let's assume OP doesn't get bail and he goes straight to prison, waiting for his appeal.

Since this is a high profile case and the first to be televised in SA, I wonder if his appeal would be fast tracked so as to give the world audience the perception of speedy justice. Sadly, OP has already been given precedence such as being an outpatient for his 30 day psych exam.

I hope that is what is going to happen. I am not too sure why anybody thinks I want something else. I think he is as guilty as hell. If he get bail everyone will feel it is OP getting preferential treatment again, me included.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
197
Guests online
1,829
Total visitors
2,026

Forum statistics

Threads
600,866
Messages
18,114,907
Members
230,991
Latest member
DeeKay
Back
Top