It will be interesting to learn what the FDR (Flight Data Recorder) shows during the landing sequence. Looking at the videos posted showing the plane landing, in my opinion, one of three things happened.
- Hard Landing (pilot error).
- Aerodynamic Stall just prior to landing due to insufficient airspeed and or stall due to gusty winds causing a hard landing.
- Hard landing caused by loss of lift due to Wake Turbulence. (This is the bump in the glide path ATC was warning the pilots about when cleared to land)
Looking at the videos coming to light showing the plane landing, it is obvious the plane experienced a hard landing. This is also confirmed by one of the passengers that was later interviewed. This accident had nothing to do with runway conditions. The accident happened the moment the plane struck the runway, not during roll out.
The plane was landing on RWY 23, which is situated on a 237 degree true heading. The winds at the time were from the W (270°) at 20 kt (10.3 m/s, 23.0 mph) gusting to 32 (16.5 m/s, 36.8 mph). The cross wind component was a 33 degree cross wind from the right at 10.89 and 17.43 knots at peak gust. Well withing the cross wind limitation of the CRJ900. The cross wind from the right would correspond with a right wing low attitude for the plane while landing to correct for the right cross wind.
In the videos you can see the plane is in a right bank (right wing low) when the plane struck the ground. The spark seen when the plane hit the ground are likely from the landing gear when the tire blew out. This caused the right landing gear to come in contact with the runway. Causing the landing gear to fail and collapse, causing the wing to contact the ground, which caused the wing to be torn off the plane. This will all be confirmed by the Canadian version of the NTSB from the ground scars left on the runway and adjacent areas.
So the question is, was the hard landing caused by a stall due to insufficient air speed, loss of lift due to Wake Turbulence generated from the plane landing ahead of them or pilot error for not flaring prior to touch down and literately fling the plane into the ground, which in turn blew out the tire, causing damage to the wing.
Looking at the videos the plane seems to have had plenty of speed and in a nose down attitude, so I'm ruling out a stall due to insufficient airspeed. But the plane could have stalled just before touch down due to wind gust or lack of.
Considering the cross winds at the time, in my opinion, the Wake Turbulence Vortices from a plane landing ahead of this plane would have been blown clear of the runway prior to the CRJ's arrival. So I'm ruling out Wake Turbulence as the cause of the accident.
Which IMO only leaves pilot error as the cause of this accident.
As for why the plane flipped over. The left wing was still producing lift. Without the right wing producing lift to balance the lift of the left wing, the plane rolled to the right becoming inverted.
JMO
Raw and decoded airport observations
aviationweather.gov
The AeroToolbox crosswind calculator can be used to quickly determine the parallel and crosswind components of the wind relative to the runway.
aerotoolbox.com
abc17news.com
