UK - Nurse Lucy Letby, murder of babies, 7 Guilty of murder verdicts; 8 Guilty of attempted murder; 2 Not Guilty of attempted; 5 hung re attempted #37

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  • #81
Are we seriously still talking about sewage … yawn ??
Letbys great white hope and only expert on the stand ( plumber ) testified himself that he’s there had been ONE issue with the sink with foul water but it was immediately rectified. It was unsurprisingly Letby herself who made the claim that it was an almost constant issue which again was debunked by her OWN witness that for the plumbing problems raised half of them were in the labour suite and not in the NICU.
I one hundred percent believe that she herself contributed to any ongoing sanitation problems by stuffing paper towels down plug holes to cause blockages to back up her story.
I doubt I will ever be convinced otherwise.
JMO
 
  • #82
@Tortoise

what is your opinion on the Lee offensive and subsequent barrage of articles in the conversation etc?

i must say not having followed the trial day to day i find it hard to get a grip on it.
I think it's disingenuous, it was led with biased intention (despite claims to the contrary) and through personal indignation at Lee's evidence being rejected at the court of appeal, and it is ignorant of the totality of evidence presented in her trials, ignorant of the experience of the many senior consultants and doctors involved with the actual care and resuscitations of the babies, and of the esteemed experts who testified, it is sometimes wildly speculative, contains erroneous information amongst the seven conclusions so far published (for instance, they say no evidence of overfeeding (baby G), no evidence of a dislodged tube (baby K), and more), and it is not new evidence.

Also going via the press is ridiculous and unprofessional and I believe her barrister cares nothing for professional ethics. I am ambivalent about whether it results in a referral back to the court of appeal by the CCRC because on the one hand I think it would shut them up, but on the other hand it doesn't contain anything worthy of referral. It's a circus, deeply distressing for her victims' families, and disrespectful of our judicial system, IMO.

They seem not to realise that not only was Letby present for all of these unexpected deaths and collapses, which is in itself inexplicable by random chance, but that they all happened within minutes of either the babies designated nurses leaving the cotside or going on their breaks, or the parents leaving their babies after being with them, or when she was alone with the babies, or no one was watching her. That is just one aspect, other aspects are her falsified medical notes, stashing medical records under her bed, the stark similarities between these never before experienced medical events, babies on the indictment screaming and commonly having bleeding throats, stalking the victims' families on social media, her excited behaviour around deaths, her indifference to serious drug dosage errors she made, her annoyance at not being allocated the babies in the intensive care nursery and attitudes towards the shift-leaders, lying about her interactions with the parents, and that only touches on half of it. It all stopped when she was taken off the unit and when she was on holiday, and the events followed her from nightshift to dayshift.

The medical evidence was only half of the evidence. The lead expert witness did not know she was on duty when he singled out the suspicious events. Even the police investigators handled their cases independently of each other to maintain a sterile corridor of investigation.

MOO
 
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  • #83
she clearly wasnt presnt for all the deaths thats allready been established
 
  • #84
she clearly wasnt presnt for all the deaths thats allready been established
She was present for all the deaths that were classed as unexplained and unexpected. That's been established.

No other member of staff present for anywhere near the amount Letby was.
 
  • #85
anyone wanna take a stab at the strongest potential reasons she might get out on?

i reckons its got something to do with the med evidence and im placing a relatively high bar that the defence will need to get over.
 
  • #86
anyone wanna take a stab at the strongest potential reasons she might get out on?

i reckons its got something to do with the med evidence and im placing a relatively high bar that the defence will need to get over


I don't see any new evidence, just new opinion. Unfortunately for Letby, this would be rubbished in a court setting. I just cannot see how an entity like the CCRC would not look upon the actions of the defence with absolute indignation.
Common sense will surely prevail.

The prosecution had expert's in particular fields but Letbys defence have not secured that calibre of opinion. There is no-one who can give a more informed opinion that prof Kinsey for example.
 
  • #87
I don't see any new evidence, just new opinion. Unfortunately for Letby, this would be rubbished in a court setting. I just cannot see how an entity like the CCRC would not look upon the actions of the defence with absolute indignation.
Common sense will surely prevail.

The prosecution had expert's in particular fields but Letbys defence have not secured that calibre of opinion. There is no-one who can give a more informed opinion that prof Kinsey for example.
agree with that entirely, no pathologists on the defences side, no specialists aside from neonatologists and one must ask why. it really does seem that the prosecution still has the winning hand. I genuinely dont think having ten nnu docs actually means much tbh, good for thriller not so good for filler. I also don't think they have contested the insulin charges to the necessary degree either.
 
  • #88
anyone wanna take a stab at the strongest potential reasons she might get out on?

i reckons its got something to do with the med evidence and im placing a relatively high bar that the defence will need to get over.
At this moment in time I don’t think there is any significant new evidence. Most of what appears new in the media is novel purely because your average news consumer did not closely follow every moment of the ten month trial (unlike the jury) and are hearing uncontested, unexamined opinion.

The body reviewing this from a court of appeal perspective is unlikely to see this panel of experts as novel. Them releasing all this info via press conference will also be considered somewhat contemptuous.

All JMO.
 
  • #89
For those who still harbour any confusion about why doctors didn’t just ring 999, please refer to this whistleblowing document (including criminal activity) from Worcs nhs trust (fairly identical will exist elsewhere) with the particular reference to involving the chief exec before any external agencies

I suspect all whistleblowing structures will be called into question/reconfigured after the Thirlwall enquiry.

JMOO
 

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  • #90
At this moment in time I don’t think there is any significant new evidence. Most of what appears new in the media is novel purely because your average news consumer did not closely follow every moment of the ten month trial (unlike the jury) and are hearing uncontested, unexamined opinion.

The body reviewing this from a court of appeal perspective is unlikely to see this panel of experts as novel. Them releasing all this info via press conference will also be considered somewhat contemptuous.

All JMO.
yeh i was listening to dr lee again and would love to hear any pro's opinions on his claims that "if this was in canada, the hospital would be shut down" claim? im trying to gauge if he bolstered the defences claim of massive hospital failings and to me as a layman its unclear but I still have lots of reasons to assume the prosecution has the better hand. even with what dr lee says I can't place the hospital at fault or doubt that the system failed to address any failings.

I really don't like the conference approach at all, one might think out of respect for the families it was done quietly.
 
  • #91
yeh i was listening to dr lee again and would love to hear any pro's opinions on his claims that "if this was in canada, the hospital would be shut down" claim? im trying to gauge if he bolstered the defences claim of massive hospital failings and to me as a layman its unclear but I still have lots of reasons to assume the prosecution has the better hand. even with what dr lee says I can't place the hospital at fault or doubt that the system failed to address any failings.

I really don't like the conference approach at all, one might think out of respect for the families it was done quietly.
Unfortunately ....if in Canada it would be shut down ...then so would half the hospitals in England
 
  • #92
Unfortunately ....if in Canada it would be shut down ...then so would half the hospitals in England
u know what it is that he considers to be a failing by the coch ? the dextrose and the line placement issue ? anything else
 
  • #93
anyone wanna take a stab at the strongest potential reasons she might get out on?

i reckons its got something to do with the med evidence and im placing a relatively high bar that the defence will need to get over.

She’s going nowhere sweep.
JMO
 
  • #94
I think it's disingenuous, it was led with biased intention (despite claims to the contrary) and through personal indignation at Lee's evidence being rejected at the court of appeal, and it is ignorant of the totality of evidence presented in her trials, ignorant of the experience of the many senior consultants and doctors involved with the actual care and resuscitations of the babies, and of the esteemed experts who testified, it is sometimes wildly speculative, contains erroneous information amongst the seven conclusions so far published (for instance, they say no evidence of overfeeding (baby G), no evidence of a dislodged tube (baby K), and more), and it is not new evidence.

Also going via the press is ridiculous and unprofessional and I believe her barrister cares nothing for professional ethics. I am ambivalent about whether it results in a referral back to the court of appeal by the CCRC because on the one hand I think it would shut them up, but on the other hand it doesn't contain anything worthy of referral. It's a circus, deeply distressing for her victims' families, and disrespectful of our judicial system, IMO.

They seem not to realise that not only was Letby present for all of these unexpected deaths and collapses, which is in itself inexplicable by random chance, but that they all happened within minutes of either the babies designated nurses leaving the cotside or going on their breaks, or the parents leaving their babies after being with them, or when she was alone with the babies, or no one was watching her. That is just one aspect, other aspects are her falsified medical notes, stashing medical records under her bed, the stark similarities between these never before experienced medical events, babies on the indictment screaming and commonly having bleeding throats, stalking the victims' families on social media, her excited behaviour around deaths, her indifference to serious drug dosage errors she made, her annoyance at not being allocated the babies in the intensive care nursery and attitudes towards the shift-leaders, lying about her interactions with the parents, and that only touches on half of it. It all stopped when she was taken off the unit and when she was on holiday, and the events followed her from nightshift to dayshift.

The medical evidence was only half of the evidence. The lead expert witness did not know she was on duty when he singled out the suspicious events. Even the police investigators handled their cases independently of each other to maintain a sterile corridor of investigation.

MOO
With respect, the litany of supposed evidence you
yeh i was listening to dr lee again and would love to hear any pro's opinions on his claims that "if this was in canada, the hospital would be shut down" claim? im trying to gauge if he bolstered the defences claim of massive hospital failings and to me as a layman its unclear but I still have lots of reasons to assume the prosecution has the better hand. even with what dr lee says I can't place the hospital at fault or doubt that the system failed to address any failings.

I really don't like the conference approach at all, one might think out of respect for the families it was done quietly.
It was 14 independent and experts, the best of the best in the relevant fields/subjects. They had access to all the case notes and so forth, they’re literal scientists: does anyone seriously believe scientists of all people approach their work without adequate rigour. It seems to me painfully obvious that these people have dotted every i and crossed every t and left absolutely no stone unturned in their analysis of what happened here. This is how science works. These were fourteen experts who had pledged to publicise their findings whether or not they supported or challenged the case for Letby’s guilt, some of whom have first-hand knowledge of the NHS and some of whom are completely independent unlike some of the prosecution witnesses involved with the substandard care some of these babies received.

Dr Phil Hammond has promised to give his weekly column over to publishing the thoughts of any medical expert which challenge the findings of Dr Shoo Lee’s panel. No takers so far. How long must we wait before those who view Letby as guilty begin to have serious doubts?

The statistical and medical issues with the prosecution case are devastating. Many people cannot get their head’s around the statistical problems, but the evidence is now all available for anyone with an open mind.

Prior to Dr Shoo Lee’s panel’s press conference, I looked up what people had been saying about the probability of her guilt given everything that had been known at the time. There were a range of estimates from various experts in the subject, people prattling on about base rates and such who know how to go about calculating these things.

At that time there seemed to be a suggestion that the extent of Letby’s bad luck to be implicated in and fitted to such a pattern of circumstantial evidence might be somewhere around the 50/1 to 300/1 range. This was *before* fourteen medical experts weighed in with their deeply informed opinion that it was much more likely that all of these children, who were much sicker than had been attested at trial, died from substandard medical care or natural causes.

As I say, I’m still waiting to here from a credible and qualified expert to explain how her presence at however many deaths, given everything we know now, should be regarded as especially suspect.

So so many parts of the case don’t sit right. As someone else pointed out, if she is a serial child killer, she is also a genius because her elaborately varied scheme for murdering the babies has remained completely undetectable to pathologists and now a team of highly esteemed experts who have pored over these cases for hundreds of hours. In stark contrast to Dr Evans who apparently identified malfeasance within 10 minutes of looking at the evidence. The same main prosecution expert who had previously submitted a report deemed as ‘worthless’.

The crime Youtuber guy who goes over the transcripts has not only been caught leaving parts out that seem to help Letby’s defence in his sensationalist presentation of the evidence, he’s recently taken to discredit himself further as a balanced and unbiased source by wading into a subject he obviously knows nothing about and attempting to pull apart Dr Lee’s evidence with bro science. That’s just such an obvious red flag.

The idea that there is no evidence that wasn’t tested at trial is just so blatantly false I don’t know how to refute it.

In fact, what hasn’t been explained at trial is by what standard or criteria did Dr Evans determine which cases were suspect and which were not. Because it looks for all the world, based on the available transcripts and evidence and the staff rota described as a statistical fake, like Letby’s presence on shift was the common factor in whether deaths were eventually regarded as suspicious. Considering Dr Lee and co have already cast doubts on Dr Evans’ understanding of some of the evidence, and considering the nature of the burden of proof, that’s more than enough to throw the prosecution case into complete disarray.

If Dr Evans or other statistical or medical experts can come up with persuasive reasons to address these doubts about the safety of her conviction, I remain open-minded.

But it seems to me a clear question of when not if she gets another chance to challenge her verdict of guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Right now, doubt is eminently reasonable.
 
  • #95
With respect, the litany of supposed evidence you

It was 14 independent and experts, the best of the best in the relevant fields/subjects. They had access to all the case notes and so forth, they’re literal scientists: does anyone seriously believe scientists of all people approach their work without adequate rigour. It seems to me painfully obvious that these people have dotted every i and crossed every t and left absolutely no stone unturned in their analysis of what happened here. This is how science works. These were fourteen experts who had pledged to publicise their findings whether or not they supported or challenged the case for Letby’s guilt, some of whom have first-hand knowledge of the NHS and some of whom are completely independent unlike some of the prosecution witnesses involved with the substandard care some of these babies received.

Dr Phil Hammond has promised to give his weekly column over to publishing the thoughts of any medical expert which challenge the findings of Dr Shoo Lee’s panel. No takers so far. How long must we wait before those who view Letby as guilty begin to have serious doubts?

The statistical and medical issues with the prosecution case are devastating. Many people cannot get their head’s around the statistical problems, but the evidence is now all available for anyone with an open mind.

Prior to Dr Shoo Lee’s panel’s press conference, I looked up what people had been saying about the probability of her guilt given everything that had been known at the time. There were a range of estimates from various experts in the subject, people prattling on about base rates and such who know how to go about calculating these things.

At that time there seemed to be a suggestion that the extent of Letby’s bad luck to be implicated in and fitted to such a pattern of circumstantial evidence might be somewhere around the 50/1 to 300/1 range. This was *before* fourteen medical experts weighed in with their deeply informed opinion that it was much more likely that all of these children, who were much sicker than had been attested at trial, died from substandard medical care or natural causes.

As I say, I’m still waiting to here from a credible and qualified expert to explain how her presence at however many deaths, given everything we know now, should be regarded as especially suspect.

So so many parts of the case don’t sit right. As someone else pointed out, if she is a serial child killer, she is also a genius because her elaborately varied scheme for murdering the babies has remained completely undetectable to pathologists and now a team of highly esteemed experts who have pored over these cases for hundreds of hours. In stark contrast to Dr Evans who apparently identified malfeasance within 10 minutes of looking at the evidence. The same main prosecution expert who had previously submitted a report deemed as ‘worthless’.

The crime Youtuber guy who goes over the transcripts has not only been caught leaving parts out that seem to help Letby’s defence in his sensationalist presentation of the evidence, he’s recently taken to discredit himself further as a balanced and unbiased source by wading into a subject he obviously knows nothing about and attempting to pull apart Dr Lee’s evidence with bro science. That’s just such an obvious red flag.

The idea that there is no evidence that wasn’t tested at trial is just so blatantly false I don’t know how to refute it.

In fact, what hasn’t been explained at trial is by what standard or criteria did Dr Evans determine which cases were suspect and which were not. Because it looks for all the world, based on the available transcripts and evidence and the staff rota described as a statistical fake, like Letby’s presence on shift was the common factor in whether deaths were eventually regarded as suspicious. Considering Dr Lee and co have already cast doubts on Dr Evans’ understanding of some of the evidence, and considering the nature of the burden of proof, that’s more than enough to throw the prosecution case into complete disarray.

If Dr Evans or other statistical or medical experts can come up with persuasive reasons to address these doubts about the safety of her conviction, I remain open-minded.

But it seems to me a clear question of when not if she gets another chance to challenge her verdict of guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Right now, doubt is eminently reasonable.
MOO

It is not considered particularly ethical or normal to parry back and forth in newspapers about the deaths of babies. Many would consider Shoo Lee’s panel to be blatantly unprofessional in this regard and her defence team IMO always gambled on knowing it was unlikely the rest of the medical establishment would start a mud slinging match when there are plenty of legal ways of rebuttal - in a retrial or re submission of evidence the prosecution would also be able to find new experts.

Moreover the medical casenotes alone are not sufficient to make an overall ruling in this case - remember original trial was ten months including witness statements, testimony and parental evidence. There are parents here, of dead children. Their child’s death, is not clout for newspapers or professors. If experts care about these babies or their families, they will submit their evidence privately and with dignity to the relevant authorities NOT hold interviews and press conferences, IMO.

Whilst Shoo Lee’s panel are neonatologists and engineers they do not have the detailed expertise of a haematologist or pathologist (both training paths in their own right that take the better part of a decade just like neonatology) and a neonatologist in general terms is not one with greater expertise in blood disorders than a haematologist (including those consulted at GOSH about child A, who were paediatric haematologists), more insight than a pathologist regarding post mortems, more insight than a radiologist into scans, etc and it is a dangerous and illogical fallacy IMO to credit them otherwise. Many of the experts do not work in the NHS, or the UK healthcare system, they weren’t present on the unit before, during or after the Letby deaths, and a working knowledge of the frontline is a really essential component IMO of why these clinicians suspected murder - it’s almost unheard of.

Finally investigations into deaths started because of unexplained deaths - escalated to regional network - Letbys presence only became a suspicious feature down the line.

Many unexplained collapses and near collapses, that followed her round from nights to days, didn’t occur on her holidays etc. this was a thorough and prolonged investigation- the duration of time criticised by many - precisely trying to find all and every possible explanation of the deaths.

That is not the same thing as saying these children had no other medical findings to speak of, that there were no staffing issues (like everywhere in the region at the time - see Thirlwell enquiry evidence from regional lead), and any other flaws you want to find with CoC. But to reasonable clinicians, used to this plethora of patients, could not predict or find a reason for the arrest, or the reason resus was so unsuccessful, why 17 deaths occurred in the time Lucy started working as a HDU/ICU neonatal nurse (13 under her direct watch, the others transferred out after a near miss on her watch) compared to the usual 2-3. Personally it would be indefensible to let this woman care for any more babies in a thousand lifetimes.

IMO Shoo Lee stating she should be released goes way above his remit as a neonatologist, shows utter contempt for just and legal process - if he is that sure of his conclusions (and who asked him?!) - he can have them tested in court like every other professional expert. In fact he did submit his thoughts to the court - their response was that his papers weren’t pivotal and features such as pneumonia were not new findings - there was his due diligence to correcting any misuse of his thirty year old paper - he has taken upon himself to prove for some reason that the entire system is corrupt and hospitals should be shut down and honestly he is just coming across to me as a bit of a narc - MOO only! I would love one day for emails/comms between Lucy’s defence team and he to be released as I highly doubt he is impartial as he claims. He has also openly admitted to not reviewing any of the evidence from the trial in his interview with the Telegraph, and really this should show you he is not a considered, measured, open minded stakeholder in proceedings.

A further reminder that deaths WITH or deaths OF a disease are not the same thing eg an eighty year old man with grumbling prostate cancer, dying of a heart attack - would you classify his death as prostate cancer? Likewise, a patient suffering sepsis could fall out of bed and sustain a life threatening bleed on the brain - did they die of sepsis? This is the realm of forensics pathology - and I’m not sure any of this children had forensic post mortems - happy to be corrected. There are some awesome forensic pathology books available for perusal by esteemed pathologists / those who have worked on the Lockerbie disaster, Twin Towers etc and they really do show the nuance of natural vs unnatural death. If it takes decades to achieve that level of knowledge I am not convinced that Shoo Lee’s panel, decades of training in neonatal disease (from cerebral palsy through to bronchopulmomary dysplasia), can match the pathologist expertise in post mortems. Please take a bigger look into this area if you’re interested, it’s not so black and white as is being presented.

Air embolism is a notoriously challenging post mortem diagnosis, and may require special investigations (that were not done!)

All MOO of course.
 
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  • #96
With respect, the litany of supposed evidence you

It was 14 independent and experts, the best of the best in the relevant fields/subjects. They had access to all the case notes and so forth, they’re literal scientists: does anyone seriously believe scientists of all people approach their work without adequate rigour. It seems to me painfully obvious that these people have dotted every i and crossed every t and left absolutely no stone unturned in their analysis of what happened here. This is how science works. These were fourteen experts who had pledged to publicise their findings whether or not they supported or challenged the case for Letby’s guilt, some of whom have first-hand knowledge of the NHS and some of whom are completely independent unlike some of the prosecution witnesses involved with the substandard care some of these babies received.

Dr Phil Hammond has promised to give his weekly column over to publishing the thoughts of any medical expert which challenge the findings of Dr Shoo Lee’s panel. No takers so far. How long must we wait before those who view Letby as guilty begin to have serious doubts?

The statistical and medical issues with the prosecution case are devastating. Many people cannot get their head’s around the statistical problems, but the evidence is now all available for anyone with an open mind.

Prior to Dr Shoo Lee’s panel’s press conference, I looked up what people had been saying about the probability of her guilt given everything that had been known at the time. There were a range of estimates from various experts in the subject, people prattling on about base rates and such who know how to go about calculating these things.

At that time there seemed to be a suggestion that the extent of Letby’s bad luck to be implicated in and fitted to such a pattern of circumstantial evidence might be somewhere around the 50/1 to 300/1 range. This was *before* fourteen medical experts weighed in with their deeply informed opinion that it was much more likely that all of these children, who were much sicker than had been attested at trial, died from substandard medical care or natural causes.

As I say, I’m still waiting to here from a credible and qualified expert to explain how her presence at however many deaths, given everything we know now, should be regarded as especially suspect.

So so many parts of the case don’t sit right. As someone else pointed out, if she is a serial child killer, she is also a genius because her elaborately varied scheme for murdering the babies has remained completely undetectable to pathologists and now a team of highly esteemed experts who have pored over these cases for hundreds of hours. In stark contrast to Dr Evans who apparently identified malfeasance within 10 minutes of looking at the evidence. The same main prosecution expert who had previously submitted a report deemed as ‘worthless’.

The crime Youtuber guy who goes over the transcripts has not only been caught leaving parts out that seem to help Letby’s defence in his sensationalist presentation of the evidence, he’s recently taken to discredit himself further as a balanced and unbiased source by wading into a subject he obviously knows nothing about and attempting to pull apart Dr Lee’s evidence with bro science. That’s just such an obvious red flag.

The idea that there is no evidence that wasn’t tested at trial is just so blatantly false I don’t know how to refute it.

In fact, what hasn’t been explained at trial is by what standard or criteria did Dr Evans determine which cases were suspect and which were not. Because it looks for all the world, based on the available transcripts and evidence and the staff rota described as a statistical fake, like Letby’s presence on shift was the common factor in whether deaths were eventually regarded as suspicious. Considering Dr Lee and co have already cast doubts on Dr Evans’ understanding of some of the evidence, and considering the nature of the burden of proof, that’s more than enough to throw the prosecution case into complete disarray.

If Dr Evans or other statistical or medical experts can come up with persuasive reasons to address these doubts about the safety of her conviction, I remain open-minded.

But it seems to me a clear question of when not if she gets another chance to challenge her verdict of guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Right now, doubt is eminently reasonable.
Who says that they are "the best of the best"? Have they even stated that about themselves?

As to the word "expert" I've pointed this out before; being an "expert" in a subject is not the same as being accepted as an expert witness in a criminal trial. If they are expert witnesses then why did not a single one of them offer their opinion in the original trials? It was worldwide news and the medical industry would most definitely have been awash with talk of these crimes.

Going back to these people's expertise and thoroughness in this process; Dr Lee has put forward the case that the death of one of the babies was down to it contracting its mother's condition (again, I forget the name). I would point out, yet again, that that exact theory was discussed at length in the original trial and was comprehensively dismissed by an actual blood expert witness. Lucy Letby's defence KC even accepted that evidence as being the factual state of affairs. The defence accepted it as true!!!

So, far from being thorough and crossing the "I's" and dotting the "T's", Dr Lee has categorically and provably given an entirely false statement and has simply repeated something which was dismissed at trial and accepted as factually opposite to what he says. There can only be two explanations as to why he said that. They are:

1) He did not, in fact, perform a thorough and rigorous check of the child's medical history, it's treatment and the evidence presented at court, or;

2) He has lied in order to whip up public fervor in order to get her case reheard.

There are simply no other rational explanations for what he has published.

There is absolutely zero chance of Dr Lee's argument resulting in a retrial or a referral by the CCRC. It is NOT new evidence as it's already been examined!

Given the above, why should anything they say be treated with anything other than utter contempt?
 
  • #97
With respect, the litany of supposed evidence you

It was 14 independent and experts, the best of the best in the relevant fields/subjects. They had access to all the case notes and so forth, they’re literal scientists: does anyone seriously believe scientists of all people approach their work without adequate rigour. It seems to me painfully obvious that these people have dotted every i and crossed every t and left absolutely no stone unturned in their analysis of what happened here. This is how science works. These were fourteen experts who had pledged to publicise their findings whether or not they supported or challenged the case for Letby’s guilt, some of whom have first-hand knowledge of the NHS and some of whom are completely independent unlike some of the prosecution witnesses involved with the substandard care some of these babies received.

Dr Phil Hammond has promised to give his weekly column over to publishing the thoughts of any medical expert which challenge the findings of Dr Shoo Lee’s panel. No takers so far. How long must we wait before those who view Letby as guilty begin to have serious doubts?

The statistical and medical issues with the prosecution case are devastating. Many people cannot get their head’s around the statistical problems, but the evidence is now all available for anyone with an open mind.

Prior to Dr Shoo Lee’s panel’s press conference, I looked up what people had been saying about the probability of her guilt given everything that had been known at the time. There were a range of estimates from various experts in the subject, people prattling on about base rates and such who know how to go about calculating these things.

At that time there seemed to be a suggestion that the extent of Letby’s bad luck to be implicated in and fitted to such a pattern of circumstantial evidence might be somewhere around the 50/1 to 300/1 range. This was *before* fourteen medical experts weighed in with their deeply informed opinion that it was much more likely that all of these children, who were much sicker than had been attested at trial, died from substandard medical care or natural causes.

As I say, I’m still waiting to here from a credible and qualified expert to explain how her presence at however many deaths, given everything we know now, should be regarded as especially suspect.

So so many parts of the case don’t sit right. As someone else pointed out, if she is a serial child killer, she is also a genius because her elaborately varied scheme for murdering the babies has remained completely undetectable to pathologists and now a team of highly esteemed experts who have pored over these cases for hundreds of hours. In stark contrast to Dr Evans who apparently identified malfeasance within 10 minutes of looking at the evidence. The same main prosecution expert who had previously submitted a report deemed as ‘worthless’.

The crime Youtuber guy who goes over the transcripts has not only been caught leaving parts out that seem to help Letby’s defence in his sensationalist presentation of the evidence, he’s recently taken to discredit himself further as a balanced and unbiased source by wading into a subject he obviously knows nothing about and attempting to pull apart Dr Lee’s evidence with bro science. That’s just such an obvious red flag.

The idea that there is no evidence that wasn’t tested at trial is just so blatantly false I don’t know how to refute it.

In fact, what hasn’t been explained at trial is by what standard or criteria did Dr Evans determine which cases were suspect and which were not. Because it looks for all the world, based on the available transcripts and evidence and the staff rota described as a statistical fake, like Letby’s presence on shift was the common factor in whether deaths were eventually regarded as suspicious. Considering Dr Lee and co have already cast doubts on Dr Evans’ understanding of some of the evidence, and considering the nature of the burden of proof, that’s more than enough to throw the prosecution case into complete disarray.

If Dr Evans or other statistical or medical experts can come up with persuasive reasons to address these doubts about the safety of her conviction, I remain open-minded.

But it seems to me a clear question of when not if she gets another chance to challenge her verdict of guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Right now, doubt is eminently reasonable.
"The idea that there is no evidence that wasn’t tested at trial is just so blatantly false I don’t know how to refute it."

Would you give a couple of examples? As in what evidence is new? Thanks
 
  • #98
I posted here regularly throughout the trial, under the handle wax lyrical. I remained on the fence throughout, waiting for the moment I too would become convinced of Letby’s guilt. It never came though, and once the verdict came in, I deleted my account as I have no other interest in true crime.

Having taken a step back, it’s clear there are two camps. Those who believe the verdicts were correct and those who believe Letby’s presence was coincidental. I don’t subscribe to any conspiracy theories, I believe everyone who has testified in this is telling their own truth.

I also see how things have twisted. I remember posting about how, sure, Letby was present at the allegedly suspicious deaths, and how it appeared a statistical anomaly, but what if it turned out she was present at all the deaths, even the non suspicious ones, how would that damage the inference being made. Alas, she was, but the narrative now is she probably did something to kill them too.

There was also chatter about how, if found guilty, it would all come out the woodwork after the trial, and we’d be left with no doubt. But, that didn’t happen, there’s zero dirt on her and a lot of colleagues are still in support of her.

I also remember when certain prominent members first attended court and said it would be easy to believe she was innocent based on her demeanour on the stand. That’s changed now too, seemingly her demeanour was her downfall.

I do not subscribe to this attitude of rubbishing the claims made by Shoo et al. They are clearly accomplished and respected individuals, willing to put their reputations on the line.

Marantz to address your point about the antiphospholipid syndrome (known as sticky blood syndrome) it’s well documented a baby born to a mother with this syndrome will retain the antibodies for the first six months of life and is at increased risk of clotting. It’s irrelevant whether the baby inherited the condition. So both things can be true: the baby did not inherit the condition, and the baby was still at increased risk of clots. The fact clotting was found at all at post mortem should be ringing some alarm bells for people, and it’s worrying that people can simply dismiss this so easily because “air embolism”. Based on the low prevalence of this syndrome, it’s possible the staff may only encounter this once in a lifetime. But as we all know, the tissue samples were destroyed.

I’ve said it many times before and will say it again. Look at this case through a lens of guilt and you will see guilt, look at it through a lens of innocence and you’ll see innocence.
 
  • #99
I do find it interesting that Dr Lee has chosen a cause of baby A's collapse as symptomatically identical to an air embolism and that it too is also difficult to find at PM. In a sense he is agreeing with the prosecution just a different cause. I wonder if that was one of limited options when it comes to what is known from the medical files?

"The idea that there is no evidence that wasn’t tested at trial is just so blatantly false I don’t know how to refute it."

Would you give a couple of examples? As in what evidence is new? Thanks
think its a reference to the new diagnosis provided by the panel rather than anything new in terms of medical records collected at the coch. We are waiting to see if it is even admitted as evidence through the appeals process as of yet as well.

Welcome back @WaneLyrical thats fair i think but I would like to find out how a thrombus in the place stated by Dr Lee would also mean difficulty in resus.
 
  • #100
Marantz to address your point about the antiphospholipid syndrome (known as sticky blood syndrome) it’s well documented a baby born to a mother with this syndrome will retain the antibodies for the first six months of life and is at increased risk of clotting. It’s irrelevant whether the baby inherited the condition. So both things can be true: the baby did not inherit the condition, and the baby was still at increased risk of clots. The fact clotting was found at all at post mortem should be ringing some alarm bells for people, and it’s worrying that people can simply dismiss this so easily because “air embolism”.

This is incorrect.

This point was addressed by Dr. Kinsey. She said that only one type of antibody crossed in the case of Babies A and B, and that the antibody that had crossed "was not significant" - ie that it would not have caused the issue of clotting. While maternal antibodies from maternal APS can cross the placenta and cause neonatal APS (which is transient), not every baby of every mother with APS is affected in that way (by having clotting problems) and the prevalence of maternal APS is higher than transient neonatal APS.


Another reference which states that not every baby born to a mother with APS received thrombotic antibodies (sorry had to post then edit due to my phone)


At no point was Dr. Kinsey speaking of genetic inheritance. She was addressing the idea that transplacental antibodies could cause neonatal APS and that in this case it was her opinion that ot did not.

As always JMO.
 
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