MO - Lisa Irwin, 10 months, Kansas City, 4 Oct 2011 - #12

[Jaxson]

That is what I am having such trouble with when it comes to these people. They are being brutally honest.

Yes!, Like they are their own worst enemies

 

[wfgodot]

How would this person who had been in the house also know that the father was out for the night?

As for a kidnapper getting lucky and selecting the right door to open to abduct this baby, the odds of that are so remote that I don't enter it into the equation of trying to pursue the truth in this case. MOO.

The luck part was a minor factor in the equation, which is why I put it last. As for the father out for the night, same answer: people in the neighborhood might certainly see him leave or know already he was starting a new job and working it that night. Ditto relatives. Tritto lucky perps.

Could have been random, could have been planned, could have been a bit of both. Certainly, odds suggest that someone in the house will be involved, which is why I've referred to that factor many times over the last many threads. On a percentage basis, this one's wrapped up already. But sometimes long odds come into play, and percentages turn out to be not so indicative.

I don't know which will prove to be the case here.

 

[SilkySifaka]

If a verified local knows from a credible source they can say male or female yes. But we can't sleuth the person other than what is in the news.

Thanks...I really want to know lol. I did read in the last thread he/she had been questioned again today and I wondered if they were checking to see if a person that size could get in thru the window.

I also am thinking that it could be someone who wanted to harm rather than take, either against the parents or just to see what killing is like. Be it this neighbor or another one. Innocence has a pull for some

 

[SilkySifaka]

They were certainly making a show of it today, perhaps in case in a jury trial the defense suggests his or her client was focused on at the expense of other possible suspects. I think it was a CYA exercise in front of cameras, basically.

I think they had someone in mind as the possible perp and wanted to see if an officer the same size could get in easily.

 

[wfgodot]

Ha Ha! No it's not! Johnson county is more like Beverly Hills dropped into the middle of the midwest

LOLOL. Yes, I doubt many in Johnson County could be considered "a working class crowd." Snobs!

 

[yllek]

How hard is it for LE to find out these ten people had an alibi? Why would Jeremy throw Debbie under the bus and say she is the only one not to be cleared (if it wasn't true)?

I'm not suggesting that at all. Just saying that Mr. Irwin made this statement early yesterday, and there's nothing from LE (who would be doing the clearing) to support it. Just today, Mr. Irwin's ex's family called him "ruthless" in how he got custody of his son and said they were surprised they hadn't been contacted by LE yet. I don't know if that statement is true either. I would sure hope the exes have been questioned already. Just being careful about the sources, maybe I'm too careful. When it comes to who's cleared and who's been questioned/investigated, LE is the only source I trust (and they won't usually comment!). :crazy:

Reference:
"The main problem I think that we're facing is that everybody (else) has an alibi," Irwin said. "I was at work. I've been cleared. All these other people we were worried about ... the FBI said they've been cleared. The only one you can't clear is the mother that's at home when it happens `cause there's nobody else there."http://www.startribune.com/nation/131319234.html

 

[wfgodot]

I think they had someone in mind as the possible perp and wanted to see if an officer the same size could get in easily.

Could be. They made a big play of it, coming in with their lights a-flashing.

 

[wfgodot]

I don't buy the "got lucky" factor either. And I don't buy that a burglar chose this house, with lights on, to rob and then said, "oh a baby' think I'll take her too." Either someone went in for the baby specifically or no one went in at all, IMO.

Fine, eliminate that one. I don't think that was the case either. But it has to be listed in any list of possibilities.

Probabilities? Not so much.

 

[jjenny]

I think they had someone in mind as the possible perp and wanted to see if an officer the same size could get in easily.

They don't even know that whoever got in (if anyone did) got in through the window, let alone the size of the perp.

 

[wfgodot]

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/dpp/ne...n-carrying-baby-wearing-only-a-diaper_NWe-tAb

Thanks wfgodot for the info and the link.. Now why in the he!! Would LE neither confirm or deny that they were even following this acct as a lead.. Why not say of course we're following any and all leads.. But nope they don't.. Instead they repeatedly state, THEY HAVE NO LEADS!".. I don't get it!

This is someone not related to these parents who is stating they eye witnessed seeing a male at midnight, on the very night in question, during the time in question.. This IMO lends much credence to the mother's story IMO.. WTH?

You're welcome!

 

[SilkySifaka]

They don't even know that whoever got in (if anyone did) got in through the window, let alone the size of the perp.

I think the neighbor they questioned twice and took dna from is a distinct possibility they want to eliminate or rule in

 

[HatesSociopaths]

The luck part was a minor factor in the equation, which is why I put it last. As for the father out for the night, same answer: people in the neighborhood might certainly see him leave or know already he was starting a new job and working it that night. Ditto relatives. Tritto lucky perps.

Could have been random, could have been planned, could have been a bit of both. Certainly, odds suggest that someone in the house will be involved, which is why I've referred to that factor many times over the last many threads. On a percentage basis, this one's wrapped up already. But sometimes long odds come into play, and percentages turn out to be not so indicative.

I don't know which will prove to be the case here.

I guess when I look at these unsolved cases I do it in a different way. I try to narrow the list of possible suspects as much as possible. If something doesn't make sense, like a random perp getting into the house but putting the screen back on the window, then selecting the right room that the baby is in, then taking three cell phones for no good reason, and just happening to be doing this on the perfect night when the father is gone, I RULE IT OUT. When I rule out something I shouldn't, it doesn't sit right in my thoughts and I end up putting it back as a possibility. In this case, it feels completely correct to rule out anyone who didn't have intimate knowledge of that house, where Lisa was, and the circumstances surrounding JI's work.

That narrows the list down quite a bit, and thankfully so. You see, if a detective doesn't do that, if he is a fence sitter, the case never gets solved.
Granted, we don't get all the information or see all the evidence, so it is harder to make decisions and solve the case. But that is why I am on this website, to try and solve the cases I post on. And I feel very comfortable narrowing the list of suspects to a dozen, and I also feel very comfortable that LE has indeed narrowed it down to this couple, even though it is based on JI's words. MOO.

 

[cluciano63]

I'm not sure a teen could pull this off, and have the baby not be found, in a week's time. But who knows, teens do all sorts of things I never would have thought they would do.

 

[dovebar]

If I were the parent, I'd want to hear a lot more from LE than "it didn't pan out" about a possible sighting of my daughter one block over around the time she probably disappeared.

To me, that's lazy cop work. It means, "we couldn't find a baby in the area so we dropped it."

Did any of the neighbors in the area go on a trip that day?
Were there any house where no one seemed to be home?
Did they do a full knock-and-talk to all the houses?
Did dogs sniff the area where the baby was seen?
Did neighbors in the area notice their outdoor motion detector lights go on?
How far was that house from the dumpster fire?
Did they put out a description of the man seen carrying the baby?
Was that description posted at the airport to all security personnel?

I'd have a lot of questions for my next 11-hour interrogation.

 

[MsDetective]

Could be. They made a big play of it, coming in with their lights a-flashing.

Is there a link to The video of the reinactment? If so could someone share it please. TIA

 

[wfgodot]

I guess when I look at these unsolved cases I do it in a different way. I try to narrow the list of possible suspects as much as possible. If something doesn't make sense, like a random perp getting into the house but putting the screen back on the window, then selecting the right room that the baby is in, then taking three cell phones for no good reason, and just happening to be doing this on the perfect night when the father is gone, I RULE IT OUT. When I rule out something I shouldn't, it doesn't sit right in my thoughts and I end up putting it back as a possibility. In this case, it feels completely correct to rule out anyone who didn't have intimate knowledge of that house, where Lisa was, and the circumstances surrounding JI's work.

That narrows the list down quite a bit, and thankfully so. You see, if a detective doesn't do that, if he is a fence sitter, the case never gets solved.
Granted, we don't get all the information or see all the evidence, so it is harder to make decisions and solve the case. But that is why I am on this website, to try and solve the cases I post on. And I feel very comfortable narrowing the list of suspects to a dozen, and I also feel very comfortable that LE has indeed narrowed it down to this couple, even though it is based on JI's words. MOO.

Quite true. I have the luxury of sitting here and making what I hope are informed choices. I'm not a detective, nor do I claim any special abilities.

 

[wfgodot]

Is there a link to The video of the reinactment? If so could someone share it please. TIA

Not sure, let me look. It's basically only an LE guy, crawling through a window after removing the screen, I think. I've seen still photos.

 

[grandmaj]

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/dpp/ne...ives-back-at-irwin-home,-recreating-abduction


I think this is one of the links to the re-enactment

 

[pdxmama]

My apologies if this has already been covered. If so, I would appreciate any links to posts or articles addressing it. I have really been trying to keep up but I don't recall seeing anything about them bringing in SAR or cadaver dogs. Is this correct or did I miss something? If they haven't brought in any dogs that seems really unusual. It seems like the last few cases I've followed it was the first thing that they did. Any thoughts on why they wouldn't have done this already?

 

[yllek]

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/dpp/ne...n-carrying-baby-wearing-only-a-diaper_NWe-tAb

Thanks wfgodot for the info and the link.. Now why in the he!! Would LE neither confirm or deny that they were even following this acct as a lead.. Why not say of course we're following any and all leads.. But nope they don't.. Instead they repeatedly state, THEY HAVE NO LEADS!".. I don't get it!

This is someone not related to these parents who is stating they eye witnessed seeing a male at midnight, on the very night in question, during the time in question.. This IMO lends much credence to the mother's story IMO.. WTH?

HatesSociopaths supplied a lead where LE addresses the man in diaper lead upthread.

You are right that Captain Young has said LE has no "solid" leads, but they have also frequently announced that they are following up on all leads. As usual, most of the hundreds of leads they receive are not solid, imo.


Last night, from Cpt Young:
"The only thing I can say is we are following up all leads," he said. "If anything has anything to follow we are checking it out."
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/10/0...n-search-missing-missouri-baby/#ixzz1aM3rtV7P