Verdicts are based on the totality of the evidence…beyond reasonable doubt.I don't understand this blind deference to a jury trial verdict. Plenty of innocent people have been convicted by a jury. And even if someone is actually guilty, a verdict doesn't necessarily mean every aspect of the prosecution's case has been proven to be true.
Someone's state of mind is fundamentally unknowable, IMO. You can make reasonable inferences about it, but you may never actually know for sure. But that might just be a philosophical difference between us.
This is an extremely weak argument for a motive. Even the prosecution admitted (in opening statements) it didn't have a motive for Erin. In those circumstances, I'm pretty comfortable stating there wasn't a motive. A motive isn't required for a conviction, obviously, but lack of motive is evidence against intent.
I agree with you about the lying though. I suspect it was basically what caused the jury to land on guilty. If you don't believe anything Erin says, all you are left with is the prosecution's murder narrative, which as I've admitted before is very compelling when zoomed out.
Thanks for the list (not sarcasm, it's actually useful to have everything laid out). That's essentially what the prosecution did at trial: Zoom out, provide a long list of circumstantial evidence and ask the jury to fill in the gaps. The problem with that approach is it encourages hindsight reasoning (working backwards from an intended result).
When you actually examine these items, a lot of them are either irrelevant, incorrect, or have an alternative benign explanation (granted, you need to believe some of what Erin said to accept those explanations. As above, I understand why some people might not do that).
For example: The cancer story. You say Erin lied to her guests about having cancer "in order to lure them to her luncheon", but that's incorrect. The only testimony we have about the cancer is Ian's, and he said Erin did not mention it until after everyone had finished eating. Erin didn't need the cancer story to "lure" people to lunch, by all accounts they came willingly. That is, except for Simon, who Erin did tell she had medical news. She didn't say cancer though.
Another example: The plates. First of all, Ian's story about the plates hasn't been proven. The police search of Erin's house didn't show plates matching Ian's description, and Erin's son's police interview disagrees with Ian too. But more importantly, it is totally reasonable to conclude Erin just didn't have 5 matching plates. Simon confirmed she had mismatching plate sets under cross-examination. Personally, I don't have 5 matching plates in my house either. If I was serving a meal for 5 people, I would definitely give my guests the matching plates and eat off the odd one myself. Erin's behaviour here is only suspicious if you already assume she is guilty. It's just not relevant.
One more, just to illustrate what I categorised above as something with a possible benign explanation: The Asian grocer. Erin's testimony was that, as far as she knew, she did use dried mushrooms from an Asian grocer in the meal, and so that's what she initially told medical staff. It was only later she realised she might have accidentally use foraged mushrooms as well. You might not believe Erin's testimony, but for me her story is more plausible than the prosecution's contention that Erin deliberately led authorities on a wild goose chase for purchased mushrooms so she could cover up the murders. As I've said before, if Erin was trying to cover up murders she would have immediately admitted to foraging.
Disagree. The prosecution didn't blow Erin's story apart, if nothing else than because it didn't have the opportunity to do so. You might say that's not fair, but that's how criminal trials work.
I don't need to come up with my own theory about why she didn't immediately own up - the defence presented one. Once Erin realised there might have been foraged mushrooms in the meal, she panicked and tried to shield herself from allegations of being a danger to her kids.
As above, if Erin had wanted to "walk away free", she would have admitted foraging, not lied about it.
That's not consistent with the prosecution's case though. The prosecution said Erin deliberately harvested death caps and purchased the dehydrator on that same day, it wasn't just an innocent household purchase. You can't have it both ways.
I agree, it is normal. But that's not what the prosecution alleged here. There wasn't just a couple of little mistakes, there was a whole litany of bizarre actions that directly contradict the prosecution's story of Erin as a calculating person who planned the murders for over a year.
I've thought about this some more, and I think there might be a case to be made that Erin was actually a bumbling idiot type killer. Someone who did things on the fly and never thought much about what story she needed to tell to get out of it or what evidence to dispose of. She might even have just meant to make her guests sick rather than kill them. That would at least be consistent with the facts. The problem is, that's not what the prosecution alleged.
When is the next hearing or sentencing?
Hey. She must have known all along she was going to miss church that Sunday - because the flying lesson was booked.
Juries do sometimes get it wrong, and sometimes verdicts are overturned. I don't believe either happened or will happen in this case. And the motive was obvious to me: Erin hated her in-laws and wanted to punish Simon as well, whether he lived or died. This is all about revenge, not money. She literally texted that she was "done" with this family. I believe the eyewitness Ian that Erin did bring up her Cancer lie. That was the motive to get them there. And I believe him about the different colored plates. Erin most likely disposed of them in her first trip to the dump 30 min after the meal. She's caught on surveillance camera dumping cardboard boxes of stuff.I don't understand this blind deference to a jury trial verdict. Plenty of innocent people have been convicted by a jury. And even if someone is actually guilty, a verdict doesn't necessarily mean every aspect of the prosecution's case has been proven to be true.
Someone's state of mind is fundamentally unknowable, IMO. You can make reasonable inferences about it, but you may never actually know for sure. But that might just be a philosophical difference between us.
This is an extremely weak argument for a motive. Even the prosecution admitted (in opening statements) it didn't have a motive for Erin. In those circumstances, I'm pretty comfortable stating there wasn't a motive. A motive isn't required for a conviction, obviously, but lack of motive is evidence against intent.
I agree with you about the lying though. I suspect it was basically what caused the jury to land on guilty. If you don't believe anything Erin says, all you are left with is the prosecution's murder narrative, which as I've admitted before is very compelling when zoomed out.
Thanks for the list (not sarcasm, it's actually useful to have everything laid out). That's essentially what the prosecution did at trial: Zoom out, provide a long list of circumstantial evidence and ask the jury to fill in the gaps. The problem with that approach is it encourages hindsight reasoning (working backwards from an intended result).
When you actually examine these items, a lot of them are either irrelevant, incorrect, or have an alternative benign explanation (granted, you need to believe some of what Erin said to accept those explanations. As above, I understand why some people might not do that).
For example: The cancer story. You say Erin lied to her guests about having cancer "in order to lure them to her luncheon", but that's incorrect. The only testimony we have about the cancer is Ian's, and he said Erin did not mention it until after everyone had finished eating. Erin didn't need the cancer story to "lure" people to lunch, by all accounts they came willingly. That is, except for Simon, who Erin did tell she had medical news. She didn't say cancer though.
Another example: The plates. First of all, Ian's story about the plates hasn't been proven. The police search of Erin's house didn't show plates matching Ian's description, and Erin's son's police interview disagrees with Ian too. But more importantly, it is totally reasonable to conclude Erin just didn't have 5 matching plates. Simon confirmed she had mismatching plate sets under cross-examination. Personally, I don't have 5 matching plates in my house either. If I was serving a meal for 5 people, I would definitely give my guests the matching plates and eat off the odd one myself. Erin's behaviour here is only suspicious if you already assume she is guilty. It's just not relevant.
One more, just to illustrate what I categorised above as something with a possible benign explanation: The Asian grocer. Erin's testimony was that, as far as she knew, she did use dried mushrooms from an Asian grocer in the meal, and so that's what she initially told medical staff. It was only later she realised she might have accidentally use foraged mushrooms as well. You might not believe Erin's testimony, but for me her story is more plausible than the prosecution's contention that Erin deliberately led authorities on a wild goose chase for purchased mushrooms so she could cover up the murders. As I've said before, if Erin was trying to cover up murders she would have immediately admitted to foraging.
Disagree. The prosecution didn't blow Erin's story apart, if nothing else than because it didn't have the opportunity to do so. You might say that's not fair, but that's how criminal trials work.
I don't need to come up with my own theory about why she didn't immediately own up - the defence presented one. Once Erin realised there might have been foraged mushrooms in the meal, she panicked and tried to shield herself from allegations of being a danger to her kids.
As above, if Erin had wanted to "walk away free", she would have admitted foraging, not lied about it.
That's not consistent with the prosecution's case though. The prosecution said Erin deliberately harvested death caps and purchased the dehydrator on that same day, it wasn't just an innocent household purchase. You can't have it both ways.
I agree, it is normal. But that's not what the prosecution alleged here. There wasn't just a couple of little mistakes, there was a whole litany of bizarre actions that directly contradict the prosecution's story of Erin as a calculating person who planned the murders for over a year.
I've thought about this some more, and I think there might be a case to be made that Erin was actually a bumbling idiot type killer. Someone who did things on the fly and never thought much about what story she needed to tell to get out of it or what evidence to dispose of. She might even have just meant to make her guests sick rather than kill them. That would at least be consistent with the facts. The problem is, that's not what the prosecution alleged.
Because Erin KNEW that they hadn't ingested any Death Caps, unlike her other chosen guests.This is exactly the reason that I have always believed she is guilty. No parent anywhere on the planet would not panic at the slightest chance their children had ingested a deadly toxin and that parent would be rushing them to the hospital STAT.
But no, not Erin.
She didn't want to upset them. Guilty, guilty, guilty. Jmo.
You are fabulous - thank you!I think the next hearing will likely be during the 1st week of August. To decide when the sentencing will happen. The judge is taking some leave before that.
“She’ll be put in that prison van and she’ll travel to Dame Phyllis Frost. And there we are, unlikely to see her again until about August.
“That’s when her next court hearing has been scheduled. So of course, if she was found not guilty, she’d walk free. But now that she’s been found guilty, the next part in the court process is to set a plea hearing or a pre-sentence hearing.
“That’s when we’re expecting to hear victim impact statements from family members affected by this tragedy. And then after that, we’ll proceed to sentence.
“But sometimes that takes a while. So the first hearing will be in August, and that’s just a mention to discuss these proceedings going forward. But she potentially could appear at that in person. So she would need to be brought in a prison van for that as well.”
*************************************
From 19:42 ish Says in this video that Justice Beale is going on leave & a pre-sentence hearing will probably be in the 1st week of August
Link
Know for certain, no; however, I suspect that she didn't know (edit: for sure) until the time of the lunch that he wasn't coming.
I base that on the fact that they found what was purportedly a spare Wellington in the trash (a poisoned one), and you have to prepare it ahead of time, so she'd likely have made his when she made the rest, assuming he'd attend. He only told her just the night before that he didn't plan to come, but then by her response, I still think she believed he'd give in and come.
On top of that, someone else pointed out that photos taken very soon after the lunch showed 6 chairs at the dining table, and that she'd likely have removed one for a formal meal if she had known in advance that one invitee wouldn't be attending.
Not proof positive, but those are the things I've seen elsewhere/speculated regarding this point.
Ah ok thanks. Had assumed it was later that morning.Church in the morning, flying lesson in the afternoon.
I've thought about this some more, and I think there might be a case to be made that Erin was actually a bumbling idiot type killer. Someone who did things on the fly and never thought much about what story she needed to tell to get out of it or what evidence to dispose of. She might even have just meant to make her guests sick rather than kill them. That would at least be consistent with the facts. The problem is, that's not what the prosecution alleged.
Plus, she had maybe become full of hatred toward any and all of the Pattersons - they were just too pleasant and moral for her.I've always considered that she saw Heather and Ian as collateral damage. She invited them because no one would think she'd have motive to kill all four of them. It sounds preposterous.
[bbm]
that's interesting about removing the chair ... is that common in Australia? I've never seen that here in Canada
Erin thought she planned well for the murder and was smarter than everyone. She didn't plan well for the after-math.I think that the prosecution does allege that Erin was a bumbling idiot type of killer.
imo
Honestly, when I first learned of this murder, I was under the impression that she had served the luncheon outside in her garden.Aussie here. I was surprised when I read about a chair being removed. I've never heard of this being done. Also, your average Aussie is not usually the formal dinner type.
Thank you!I think the next hearing will likely be during the 1st week of August. To decide when the sentencing will happen. The judge is taking some leave before that.
“She’ll be put in that prison van and she’ll travel to Dame Phyllis Frost. And there we are, unlikely to see her again until about August.
“That’s when her next court hearing has been scheduled. So of course, if she was found not guilty, she’d walk free. But now that she’s been found guilty, the next part in the court process is to set a plea hearing or a pre-sentence hearing.
“That’s when we’re expecting to hear victim impact statements from family members affected by this tragedy. And then after that, we’ll proceed to sentence.
“But sometimes that takes a while. So the first hearing will be in August, and that’s just a mention to discuss these proceedings going forward. But she potentially could appear at that in person. So she would need to be brought in a prison van for that as well.”
*************************************
From 19:42 ish Says in this video that Justice Beale is going on leave & a pre-sentence hearing will probably be in the 1st week of August
Link
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