Canada, Greenland, Mexico, etc - USA Tariffs / Trade War commencing March 2025 #4

[Lyanna]

Thank you! Not sure whether I understand this correctly, but it sounds like the Anti-Coercion Instrument is a last resort. Once implemented, a diplomatic effort is made first. If that fails, an economic response is justified. That response requires agreement that is not always easy to obtain.

It sounds like tariffs on USA alcohol that might lead to extreme tariffs on EU wine and spirits is difficult to achieve at this time. Personally, I think that a 200% tariff on French wine will have the entire USA upset, and that a tariff like that will not last long. California wine is okay, but it's not a replacement for EU wine.

"If an implementing act were adopted, it would then be for the Commission to take the diplomatic initiative by requesting that the third country cease the economic coercion immediately and repair the injury, and by starting a consultation phase with the third country concerned. If diplomatic efforts were to fail, the Commission would then be able to adopt any measures deemed necessary and in the overall EU interest."
same link

Yes, as I read and understand it, it's a last resort if negotiations have failed.
Norton Rose Fulbright explain it in a bit more detail but there's some downsides too! Don't think the EU and it's member countries are messing though, they've been dealing in alliances longer than the states.

EU Anti-Coercion Instrument: Key takeaways for businesses

On December 27, 2023, the European Union’s new Anti-Coercion Instrument (Regulation 2023/2675) (the ‘ACI’) came into force. It aims to protect the European Union (the EU), and its Member States, from economic coercion by third countries. This could be a double-edged sword for businesses...

www.nortonrosefulbright.com

Moo
Ebm

 

[Kemug]

and I believe much more than people realize. She has dug in for her own reasons....moo
Her main goals and aspirations are unknown to me....moo

Mrs T's mother died last year, but her father is still living. AFAIK, Donald allows/allowed them to live in one wing of Mar-el-Lago, rent free, after they arrived in the country, and he no doubt helped them get citizenship. It's the only good thing I have ever heard of him doing, but no doubt it was part of the deal. Still. I don't think Mrs T would upset things while her father still lives.

 

[Seni]

Didn't Trump already put a tariff on French wine? He claimed that champagne can be made in the USA ... like a true know-nothing-about-champagne man.

Will the USA consumer agree that they French wine will be banned from restaurants? I hope the EU goes ahead with tariffs. Let the people of the USA have their say.

"US President Donald Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on any alcohol coming to the US from the European Union (EU) in the latest twist of an escalating trade war.

The threat is a response to the EU's plans for a 50% tax on imports of US-produced whiskey as part of its retaliation to Trump's tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the US."

March 2025

Trump threatens 200% tariff on alcohol from EU

Wine and spirits will be taxed, Trump says, if the EU does not remove tariffs on US whiskey.

www.bbc.com

Didn't Trump already put a tariff on French wine? He claimed that champagne can be made in the USA ... like a true know-nothing-about-champagne man.

Will the USA consumer agree that they French wine will be banned from restaurants? I hope the EU goes ahead with tariffs. Let the people of the USA have their say.

"US President Donald Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on any alcohol coming to the US from the European Union (EU) in the latest twist of an escalating trade war.

The threat is a response to the EU's plans for a 50% tax on imports of US-produced whiskey as part of its retaliation to Trump's tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports to the US."

March 2025

Trump threatens 200% tariff on alcohol from EU

Wine and spirits will be taxed, Trump says, if the EU does not remove tariffs on US whiskey.

www.bbc.com

Quite,

Its your birthday, your husband has long ago booked your favourite restaurant where you rarely go.

Champagne for aperitif

New Zealand green lipped mussels as teaser

Now a nice Pino Grigiot

Accompanied by paté and truffles

The Bordeaux red follows

Angus beef steak, accompanied by Chinese noodles and shitake mushrooms

Next a heavy Spanish Rioja

Cheese board with European and English cheeses

Tiramisu made with mascarpone and kahlua, cocoa powder.

Finishing off with coffee, Irish coffee, cognac, Benedictine. Cigars

Belgian chocolates to finish

Am just playing around here, to show the absurdity of what might become.

 

[otto]

Yes, as I read and understand it, it's a last resort if negotiations have failed.
Norton Rose Fulbright explain it in a bit more detail but there's some downsides too! Don't think the EU and it's member countries are messing though, they've been dealing in alliances longer than the states.

EU Anti-Coercion Instrument: Key takeaways for businesses

On December 27, 2023, the European Union’s new Anti-Coercion Instrument (Regulation 2023/2675) (the ‘ACI’) came into force. It aims to protect the European Union (the EU), and its Member States, from economic coercion by third countries. This could be a double-edged sword for businesses...

www.nortonrosefulbright.com

Moo
Ebm

Broad options! That's good. I'm curious whether any measures will target the man with the fuzzy arithmetic, or his equally arithmetic-challenged government friends. That would be a big statement!

• Imposition or re-imposition of customs duties, including duties beyond most-favoured nation level, and import/export controls, including through quotas and licences;
• Measures applying to transiting goods;
• Restrictions on the right to participate in public procurement tender procedures (e.g., excluding suppliers from particular third countries from tenders and score adjustment for tenders);
• ‘Measures’ affecting the supply of services and access by foreign investors to the EU;
• ‘Restrictions’ on the protection of intellectual property rights and their exploitation;
• ‘Restrictions’ on the access by banking and insurance entities to EU capital markets and other financial services activities;
• ‘Restrictions’ on placing certain chemicals, sanitary and phytosanitary goods in the EU marketplace.

... Further, because such measures must be proportionate, they may first target specific (legal) persons, linked to a third country government.
same link

 

[Lyanna]

Broad options! That's good. I'm curious whether any measures will target the man with the fuzzy arithmetic, or his equally arithmetic-challenged government friends. That would be a big statement!

• Imposition or re-imposition of customs duties, including duties beyond most-favoured nation level, and import/export controls, including through quotas and licences;
• Measures applying to transiting goods;
• Restrictions on the right to participate in public procurement tender procedures (e.g., excluding suppliers from particular third countries from tenders and score adjustment for tenders);
• ‘Measures’ affecting the supply of services and access by foreign investors to the EU;
• ‘Restrictions’ on the protection of intellectual property rights and their exploitation;
• ‘Restrictions’ on the access by banking and insurance entities to EU capital markets and other financial services activities;
• ‘Restrictions’ on placing certain chemicals, sanitary and phytosanitary goods in the EU marketplace.

... Further, because such measures must be proportionate, they may first target specific (legal) persons, linked to a third country government.
same link

When I first read it, I thought they could target him specifically, in the Crowell article it states that one of the criterion is met when :

'The person effectively acts on behalf of, or under the direction or instigation of, the government of the third country concerned.'

That implies, to me at least lol that Don personally may face some sort of sanction if the EU trigger ACI?

Moo

 

[otto]

Quite,

Its your birthday, your husband has long ago booked your favourite restaurant where you rarely go.

Champagne for aperitif

New Zealand green lipped mussels as teaser

Now a nice Pino Grigiot

Accompanied by paté and truffles

The Bordeaux red follows

Angus beef steak, accompanied by Chinese noodles and shitake mushrooms

Next a heavy Spanish Rioja

Cheese board with European and English cheeses

Tiramisu made with mascarpone and kahlua, cocoa powder.

Finishing off with coffee, Irish coffee, cognac, Benedictine. Cigars

Belgian chocolates to finish

Am just playing around here, to show the absurdity of what might become.

That's exactly where everything falls apart. Trump wants everything that the USA consumes to be produced in the USA, which is absurd. The USA has never been known for quality. He's jacking up the price of all foreign products because he expects all those companies to move to the USA. What will happen is that no one in the USA can afford those products anymore, so sales drop, production drops, and recession starts.

 

[otto]

When I first read it, I thought they could target him specifically, in the Crowell article it states that one of the criterion is met when :

'The person effectively acts on behalf of, or under the direction or instigation of, the government of the third country concerned.'

That implies, to me at least lol that Don personally may face some sort of sanction if the EU trigger ACI?

Moo

That's how I read it as well. The anti-coercion instrument can directly target Trump, since he is the government actor behind the coercive acts. Any holdings he has in the EU, and perhaps globally, are up for consideration.

I doubt the EU will impose personal sanctions on Trump at this time, but having that as an option (perhaps designed with Putin in mind) is good.

 

[Lyanna]

That's how I read it as well. The anti-coercion instrument can directly target Trump, since he is the government actor behind the coercive acts. Any holdings he has in the EU, and perhaps globally, are up for consideration.

Where's his golf courses again?

Moo

 

[SouthAussie]

That's exactly where everything falls apart. Trump wants everything that the USA consumes to be produced in the USA, which is absurd. The USA has never been known for quality. He's jacking up the price of all foreign products because he expects all those companies to move to the USA. What will happen is that no one in the USA can afford those products anymore, so sales drop, production drops, and recession starts.

Just to add, one previously accurate predicter of US recession thinks that a recession will likely start in the US by the 4th quarter of 2025.


Economist Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warns that current conditions represent a "perfect storm" of converging risk factors: persistent inflation, restrictive monetary policy, accumulated private sector debt and rising geopolitical tensions.

He places recession probability at 80% by Q4 2025 .....

Is A Recession Coming In 2025? What Investors Should Know in October

Will a recession hit in 2025? Explore expert forecasts, economic indicators, and potential impacts. Stay informed and prepare for what's ahead.

www.forbes.com

 

[otto]

Where's his golf courses again?

Moo

Scotland, Ireland, Dubai, Oman, Indonesia, and the USA.

All Trump golf courses deserving sanctions are outside the EU, but boycotts are an option.

 

[Seni]

Scotland, Ireland, Dubai, Oman, Indonesia, and the USA.

All Trump golf courses deserving sanctions are outside the EU, but boycotts are an option.

You forget St Andrews!

 

[otto]

Just to add, one previously accurate predicter of US recession thinks that a recession will likely start in the US by the 4th quarter of 2025.


Economist Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis, warns that current conditions represent a "perfect storm" of converging risk factors: persistent inflation, restrictive monetary policy, accumulated private sector debt and rising geopolitical tensions.

He places recession probability at 80% by Q4 2025 .....

Is A Recession Coming In 2025? What Investors Should Know in October

Will a recession hit in 2025? Explore expert forecasts, economic indicators, and potential impacts. Stay informed and prepare for what's ahead.

www.forbes.com

Great article! Spells out exactly what is going to happen in the USA. Sadly, because the Canadian economy is tied to the USA economy, Canadians will see the same downturn.

This is what Trump supporters want. They were told that a Global Trade War would have a negative impact on the USA, and they were happy about it.

"When prices rise faster than wages, consumers must either reduce consumption, deplete savings or increase debt, eventually constraining economic activity. The resulting decreased demand can trigger production cutbacks, layoffs and further reductions in spending, creating the negative feedback loop characteristic of recessions."
same link

 

[TootsieFootsie]

You can't win a tariff fight with Trump for three simple reasons

The Australian government after May 3 will no doubt want to try to negotiate with the Trump administration about our 10 per cent tariff, but they might be better off to just work around it and move on.

www.abc.net.au

The Trumpists are not even right-wing or conservative in the normal sense, just tribal, recklessly macho and inept.

What's more, Americans knew who they were voting for last year because they watched him for four years, and then he reminded them last year who he was and told them what he was going to do in his second term.

They voted for him anyway and now their prices will rise because of the tariffs, many of them will lose their jobs because of the recession and their retirement savings will shrink because of the stock market decline, caused by the combination of uncertainty and the coming stagflation.

 

[otto]

You can't win a tariff fight with Trump for three simple reasons

The Australian government after May 3 will no doubt want to try to negotiate with the Trump administration about our 10 per cent tariff, but they might be better off to just work around it and move on.

www.abc.net.au

The Trumpists are not even right-wing or conservative in the normal sense, just tribal, recklessly macho and inept.

What's more, Americans knew who they were voting for last year because they watched him for four years, and then he reminded them last year who he was and told them what he was going to do in his second term.

They voted for him anyway and now their prices will rise because of the tariffs, many of them will lose their jobs because of the recession and their retirement savings will shrink because of the stock market decline, caused by the combination of uncertainty and the coming stagflation.

No one in the USA can claim that they had no part in the re-election of Trump. They either voted for him, or were too lazy to vote. Granted, the real problem was that the country restricted the choice to two old men with questionable mental competency. I would expect tariffs on penguins from Biden, but now we see the same thing from Trump. They're both looney and incompetent.

I like the last line - the world is being liberated from the USA. That is certainly how the world is reacting.

"Just six months ago, markets were on about "American exceptionalism", obsessed with the booming "Magnificent 7" companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla). Its economy, stock market and technology leadership were the envy of the world.

Now, the largest US bank, JP Morgan, puts the odds of a US recession at 60 per cent, the Magnificent 7 have dropped 26 per cent, the overall stock market has fallen back to where it was a year ago and stories appear daily about how China is beating the US at its own technology game, including electric vehicles, drones, AI and robots.

Perhaps "Liberation Day" can be seen as the world being liberated from America."
same link

 

[otto]

It just occurred to me that if Biden put tariffs on penguins, the Republicans would be all over that, in an uproar. When their own mentally incompetent presidential choice does that, they start throwing around Greek letter equations, fuzzy arithmetic, or claiming it was intentional because someone falsely gave a penguin Island as their home. Nothing but excuses and denial, when it is obvious that Trump is destroying the USA because his Greek equation told him that self-destruction will make him rich.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

At the time her team said there was no hidden message, but later Mrs T told the media:

"It was for the people and for the left-wing media who are criticising me. I want to show them I don't care. You could criticise whatever you want to say. But it will not stop me to do what I feel is right."

Melania Trump says 'don't care' jacket was a message

Mrs Trump's own team had denied that her clothing during a visit to a detention centre had any meaning.

www.bbc.com

Making it about herself took away from the purpose of her visit. It's all about photo ops and rarely about substance. To me, she showed her colors when she insisted that Obama's Hawaii birth certificate wasn't real.

I think the real "cherry on top" for me, was her total support of Jan 6.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/13/politics/stephanie-grisham-melania-trump-january-6/index.html

 

[anneg]

No one in the USA can claim that they had no part in the re-election of Trump. They either voted for him, or were too lazy to vote. Granted, the real problem was that the country restricted the choice to two old men with questionable mental competency. I would expect tariffs on penguins from Biden, but now we see the same thing from Trump. They're both looney and incompetent.

I like the last line - the world is being liberated from the USA. That is certainly how the world is reacting.

"Just six months ago, markets were on about "American exceptionalism", obsessed with the booming "Magnificent 7" companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla). Its economy, stock market and technology leadership were the envy of the world.

Now, the largest US bank, JP Morgan, puts the odds of a US recession at 60 per cent, the Magnificent 7 have dropped 26 per cent, the overall stock market has fallen back to where it was a year ago and stories appear daily about how China is beating the US at its own technology game, including electric vehicles, drones, AI and robots.

Perhaps "Liberation Day" can be seen as the world being liberated from America."
same link

Otto said: "No one in the USA can claim that they had no part in the re-election of Trump. They either voted for him, or were too lazy to vote."

Hello? Nearly half of U.S. voters voted for Kamala Harris for President in the November election. Biden wasn't running.

 

[Trooper]

I think it''s still Sunday in the USA.. maybe very early Monday but to ease the shock a bit, it's well and truly Monday, in countries past the time zone thingo. The Prime Meridian., which runs thru the Kiribati Islands... it starts in the New Zealand stock exchange ( the first to open across the world, timezone wise ) which is in freefall, the Australian Stock exchange (ASX) . ditto, and the Japanese Nikkei index, sinking like a stone. ..

The Japanese put the brakes on, and closed the Stock exchange after about 2 hours trading.... Giving traders a breather to think things thru...


ominous is the word that springs to miind.......

 

[anneg]

I think it''s still Sunday in the USA.. maybe very early Monday but to ease the shock a bit, it's well and truly Monday, in countries past the time zone thingo. The Prime Meridian., which runs thru the Kiribati Islands... it starts in the New Zealand stock exchange ( the first to open across the world ) is in freefall, the Australian Stock exchange . ditto, and the Japanese Nissei index, sinking like a stone. .. the Japanese put the brakes on, and closed the Stock exchange after about hours trading.... Giving traders a breather to think things thru...


ominous is the word that springs to miind.......

Sounds like we have Black Monday in store.

 

[Trooper]

well. would ya look at this!!..

Labor may use ‘powers’ to take back Port of Darwin, Marles says – as it happened

This blog is now closed

www.theguardian.com

''''ASX 200 loses $160bn in 15 minutes at opening as Trump tariff trade war fears intensify​

Jonathan Barrett
More than $160bn has been wiped off the Australian share market this morning as fears of a full-blown trade war grip investors.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 sank more than 6% to trade below the 7200 point mark within 15 minutes after the market opened on Monday.

The sell-off follows a sharp fall on Wall Street on Friday, weighed down by China’s retaliatory tariffs to Donald Trump’s new trade regime .

The Australian dollar has also fallen sharply to trade below 60 US cents.'''''''


Can't get accururate figures from the Japanese Nikkei.. maybe in an hour or so... that is, if Tokyo opens it up again, they may shut it down for the day, in a proactive move to stop the steal...