4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #92

[SpiderFalcon]

@NCWatcher @Megnut @katydid23
Dr Edelman specifically explained that demographic data is a whole section of the survey, precisely so they can know if the people they've spoken to truly reflect a full spectrum sample of the population. It also allows them to know if for example, certain demographics tend to be more or less informed, or biased in a certain way.
Dr Edelman's testimony is extremely useful to watch. I personally don't like to rely on second hand info and prefer to watch it all unedited and without some TV or SM commentator's opinion interjected.
Importantly, he also explains that he conducted the exact same type of survey, not just in countless other high profile cases but also in other cases that had a NDO.

Which high profile cases did HE conduct a survey in? I heard him mention several high profile cases in the context that these types of surveys were taken, but not by him.

 

[Megnut]

I'm not sure I agree retirees are typically anxious to talk to strangers on the phone or that they have more time to talk than, say, a young person without a job who lives in his parents' basement. But fortunately, any well-done survey will contain a section on demographics. That section won't be limited to age but would include age. (And the previously posted ASTC Standards address that issue in detail along with the use of census data.) So if the majority of survey respondents were 60+ years old, that would be quite clear in the report. Nobody is going to be able to get away with leaving out demographic data when presenting survey results and there's no reason I know of to think this particular consultant would ever try to do that. Whenever a sample is drawn with the goal of making inferences about the population, the sample needs to match the population in important ways-- for example, age, sex, SES, level of education, etc.

Courts across the US require actual data when considering change of venue motions. While there can be difficulties gathering unbiased data, I'm not sure what the alternatives are. It may be that this is an entirely new situation for this particular judge and this particular DA. But the use of survey data to support a change of venue motion is hardly a revolutionary idea.
MOO

I didn't mean to imply that only retirees have time or that all retirees have time -- I was trying to highlight the reverse, that not everyone has time or takes times for surveys. I could have expressed that far better.

And yes, surveys are nothing new. And they have followed a certain convention as I understand it. Random, cross-section. Questions asked following standard methodology.

I think BE has a brand. Maybe it'll become the new standard, maybe not, but it feels to me that it's not a gauge of media saturation but rather a novel measure and complex statistical analysis of the interplay between detail recognition and supposed guilt. It's next level analysis. It's more like voir dire. And voir dire is for the court room. Voir dire is for asking individuals if, regardless of what they've heard or read, can they set any pre-conceived notions aside and deliberate only on the evidence presented.

That question wasn't asked in the survey. I just feel like this is a clever apple and oranges things.

I am however very curious. If he allowed to poll other communities, how will the data appear? Another town over, will people have less recognition when presented with fact specific details if the case?

I do not think AT expected this curve ball to be challenged. It's launched a mini trial.

JMO

 

[katydid23]

I'm not sure I agree retirees are typically anxious to talk to strangers on the phone or that they have more time to talk than, say, a young person without a job who lives in his parents' basement. But fortunately, any well-done survey will contain a section on demographics. That section won't be limited to age but would include age. (And the previously posted ASTC Standards address that issue in detail along with the use of census data.) So if the majority of survey respondents were 60+ years old, that would be quite clear in the report. Nobody is going to be able to get away with leaving out demographic data when presenting survey results and there's no reason I know of to think this particular consultant would ever try to do that. Whenever a sample is drawn with the goal of making inferences about the population, the sample needs to match the population in important ways-- for example, age, sex, SES, level of education, etc.

Courts across the US require actual data when considering change of venue motions. While there can be difficulties gathering unbiased data, I'm not sure what the alternatives are. It may be that this is an entirely new situation for this particular judge and this particular DA. But the use of survey data to support a change of venue motion is hardly a revolutionary idea.
MOO

Besides using this kind of flawed, outdated method, there are other options to decide about the need for COV.

Many judges insist upon bringing in potential jurors and questioning them, one at a time, about their prior knowledge and about their ability to be impartial. Only IF it becomes obvious there are not enough unbiased jurors will they then look at other options.

But many judges, even in high profile cases, seem convinced they can empanel enough jurors. And in a very high profile case like this, the entire state has been bombarded by media accounts of the quadruple murders.

Moving the entire trial to a new county may not be the best answer to the problem. JMO

 

[NCWatcher]

@NCWatcher @Megnut @katydid23
Dr Edelman specifically explained that demographic data is a whole section of the survey, precisely so they can know if the people they've spoken to truly reflect a full spectrum sample of the population. It also allows them to know if for example, certain demographics tend to be more or less informed, or biased in a certain way.
Dr Edelman's testimony is extremely useful to watch.
Importantly, he also explains that he conducted the exact same type of survey, not just in countless other high profile cases but also in other cases that had a NDO.

Thanks for the additional info. I have not been able to watch his testimony yet but hope to be able to this weekend. I knew in his earlier report he had mentioned the ASTC. And frankly it would be unheard of for any halfway competent survey researcher to omit demographic data, even if he/she wasn't following a particular set of guidelines like those of the ASTC. But it's good to know the need for demographic data was explicitly discussed yesterday during the hearing.
MOO

 

[NCWatcher]

Besides using this kind of flawed, outdated method, there are other options to decide about the need for COV.

Many judges insist upon bringing in potential jurors and questioning them, one at a time, about their prior knowledge and about their ability to be impartial. Only IF it becomes obvious there are not enough unbiased jurors will they then look at other options.

But many judges, even in high profile cases, seem convinced they can empanel enough jurors. And in a very high profile case like this, the entire state has been bombarded by media accounts of the quadruple murders.

Moving the entire trial to a new county may not be the best answer to the problem. JMO

Trying to seat a jury and failing is kind of a big deal. Not only does it cost the taxpayers money, but it can sometimes have a biasing effect against an eventual fair trial occurring. I don't doubt some judges choose that route but it's not without big problems too.
MOO

 

[NCWatcher]

I didn't mean to imply that only retirees have time or that all retirees have time -- I was trying to highlight the reverse, that not everyone has time or takes times for surveys. I could have expressed that far better.

And yes, surveys are nothing new. And they have followed a certain convention as I understand it. Random, cross-section. Questions asked following standard methodology.

I think BE has a brand. Maybe it'll become the new standard, maybe not, but it feels to me that it's not a gauge of media saturation but rather a novel measure and complex statistical analysis of the interplay between detail recognition and supposed guilt. It's next level analysis. It's more like voir dire. And voir dire is for the court room. Voir dire is for asking individuals if, regardless of what they've heard or read, can they set any pre-conceived notions aside and deliberate only on the evidence presented.

That question wasn't asked in the survey. I just feel like this is a clever apple and oranges things.

I am however very curious. If he allowed to poll other communities, how will the data appear? Another town over, will people have less recognition when presented with fact specific details if the case?

I do not think AT expected this curve ball AT to be challenged. It's launched a mini trial.

JMO

BBM

The question about setting aside preconceived ideas wasn't asked and shouldn't have been asked per the ASTC standards posted earlier. (The standards say specifically not to ask that question.) Per those standards the survey questions should address
1. Demographics
2. Awareness of the case
3. Prejudgment
4. Sources of information about the case.

I don't really see what BE is doing is new or unusual. But we'll see.

It is my understanding that surveying other counties will show if there is more potential bias in Latah county. IF there are differences that may support a change of venue. If there are no differences, that will say everybody has been exposed to case info and may show they've made judgements. So if there's bias, it's everywhere.
MOO

 

[Swansee]

I am however very curious. If he allowed to poll other communities, how will the data appear? Another town over, will people have less recognition when presented with fact specific details if the case?

RSBM
This is an excellent question. IMO, I highly doubt the results will be different in another county. The media coverage has been intense, everywhere.
I never understood why the defense focused so heavily on jury issues in the request for COV.
It seems to me the most compelling reason to have a COV is that Moscow is just too small to handle the massive influx of media and witnesses etc that the trial will involve. Even BT has expressed concerns about disrupting the school across the street from the courthouse etc.
I don't understand why the defense pursues this jury pool controversy instead of simply arguing they should move it to Boise or another big city to make all these scheduling and accomodation issues go away? It seems like both parties should actually be able to agree on that aspect, IMO.

 

[katydid23]

Trying to seat a jury and failing is kind of a big deal. Not only does it cost the taxpayers money, but it can sometimes have a biasing effect against an eventual fair trial occurring. I don't doubt some judges choose that route but it's not without big problems too.
MOO

True, but the judge's who go that route rarely fail at seating a jury. That is why they feel confident they can do so by voir dire:
A jury is selected after lawyers and sometimes judges question potential jurors from a group of people called to court for jury duty (usually by way of a jury summons). The questioning process is called “voir dire,” which means “to speak the truth.” The main purpose of voir dire is to pick jurors who can listen impartially to the evidence and reach a verdict that’s in keeping with the law.


I do not have faith that this phone survey is really an accurate way to make the critical decision. I think the 'demographics' of 400 respondents is a very small sample size to base any conclusions on. JMO

 

[katydid23]

RSBM
This is an excellent question. IMO, I highly doubt the results will be different in another county. The media coverage has been intense, everywhere.
I never understood why the defense focused so heavily on jury issues in the request for COV.
It seems to me the most compelling reason to have a COV is that Moscow is just too small to handle the massive influx of media and witnesses etc that the trial will involve. Even BT has expressed concerns about disrupting the school across the street from the courthouse etc.
I don't understand why the defense pursues this jury pool controversy instead of simply arguing they should move it to Boise or another big city to make all these scheduling and accomodation issues go away? It seems like both parties should actually be able to agree on that aspect, IMO.

I think the prosecution wants to avoid a move to Boise or another big city for other reasons.

I think they are more comfortable with the locals than with a probably more anti-LE type of jury pool in a large city, that would tend to believe the DT's accusations of police corruption, etc.

I think that is one reason AT wants to move it there. JMO IMO

 

[NCWatcher]

True, but the judge's who go that route rarely fail at seating a jury. That is why they feel confident they can do so by voir dire:
A jury is selected after lawyers and sometimes judges question potential jurors from a group of people called to court for jury duty (usually by way of a jury summons). The questioning process is called “voir dire,” which means “to speak the truth.” The main purpose of voir dire is to pick jurors who can listen impartially to the evidence and reach a verdict that’s in keeping with the law.


I do not have faith that this phone survey is really an accurate way to make the critical decision. I think the 'demographics' of 400 respondents is a very small sample size to base any conclusions on. JMO

Well, you are certainly free to dislike surveys as a descriptive scientific method. But science in general makes inferences from smaller samples to larger populations. And the sample size of 400 wasn't just plucked from thin air. One has to take many factors into account like confidence intervals and study resources. And there are statistical tables to help a researcher decide on sample size based on population size.

I do know what voir dire is and I know the translation. We can all hope the truth is actually spoken!

MOO

 

[Megnut]

RSBM
This is an excellent question. IMO, I highly doubt the results will be different in another county. The media coverage has been intense, everywhere.
I never understood why the defense focused so heavily on jury issues in the request for COV.
It seems to me the most compelling reason to have a COV is that Moscow is just too small to handle the massive influx of media and witnesses etc that the trial will involve. Even BT has expressed concerns about disrupting the school across the street from the courthouse etc.
I don't understand why the defense pursues this jury pool controversy instead of simply arguing they should move it to Boise or another big city to make all these scheduling and accomodation issues go away? It seems like both parties should actually be able to agree on that aspect, IMO.

I think the prosecution wants to avoid a move to Boise or another big city for other reasons.

I think they are more comfortable with the locals than with a probably more anti-LE type of jury pool in a large city, that would tend to believe the DT's accusations of police corruption, etc.

I think that is one reason AT wants to move it there. JMO IMO

I think this is a separate issue. Or two issues intertwined.

Another trial in following, they kept the venue, selected the jury from another county and are shipping them in.

Moving the venue to Boise for logistical reasons may make sense, but it doesn't necessarily mean the jury has to be from Boise.

This trial isn't even underway and my head hurts!

Jmo about juries, venues and my head

 

[arielilane]

1/3 Bryan Kohberber prosecutor says it is false that Kohberger stalked one of the victims.
This came up while the prosecutor was questioning a defense expert this afternoon who performed a telephone survey of Latah county residents to determine whether the jury pool is biased.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778252811387429193

2/3 Prosecutor says the experts survey has "loaded questions and some are factually incorrect."
He says the defense expert should not "go around screwing the knowledge that prospective jurors may have or may not have."


3/3 Defense says they are conducting the survey to support their argument the trial should be moved to a different county. No decision has been made at this point.

 

[Swansee]

@SpiderFalcon
Sorry I am only noticing your comment to me now for some reason, I didn't mean to ignore your question.
From Edelman's company website:
"He has been retained on more than 40 high profile cases including the Flint water crisis, the Aurora theater Batman shooting, the Jason Van Dyke police shooting, and others."
Source:

About Us – Trial Innovations

trialinnovations.com

 

[Balthazar]

snipped by me for focus:

It seems to me the most compelling reason to have a COV is that Moscow is just too small to handle the massive influx of media and witnesses etc that the trial will involve. Even BT has expressed concerns about disrupting the school across the street from the courthouse etc.
I don't understand why the defense pursues this jury pool controversy instead of simply arguing they should move it to Boise or another big city to make all these scheduling and accomodation issues go away? It seems like both parties should actually be able to agree on that aspect, IMO.

The ONLY valid reason for CoV is if the defendant can get a fair trial or not in the location where the crime occurred. Scheduling and accommodation issues are never considered. There are 5 factors the judge will consider in regards to a fair trial:

1. Nature and Gravity of the offense - The more sensational, the more likely jurors will notice, remember and be prejudiced by publicity.

2. Nature and extent to news coverage - The CoV survey has proven this case has become sensationalized and there is false information in the media.

3. Size and characteristics of the community - Moscow has a quarter of the population of the larger cities in Idaho.

4. Status of the defendant in the community - He is an outsider.

5. Status of the victims in the community - That these victims were "college kids" will arouse passions in the community. There were huge memorial services and vigils which are still being held in Moscow in 2024, 2 years after the murders.

This is a case with intense media saturation especially in Moscow. However, the further you get from Moscow, the less likely there will be equally intense media saturation. Boise is a little over 5.5 hours away from Moscow. It is likely that there is less media saturation there and a larger pool of potential jurors. They might also consider Meridian (5.5 hours aways from Moscow), Nampa (5.22 hours away from Moscow) or Idaho Falls (9 hours away from Moscow). These 4 cities are the largest in Idaho. Boise, Meridian and Nampa all have over 100,000 residents and Idaho Falls has 65,000. By comparison, Moscow only has 25,000. https://www.idahodemographics.com/cities_by_population

I expect to see the prosecutor squawk, complain and drag his feet over CoV because it is widely known that CoV with an unbiased jury can somewhat reduce the prosecution's chances of getting a conviction because it puts the defense and prosecution on even ground. At yesterday's hearing, there was video of the prosecutor on TV encouraging the local media to spread the contents of the PCA. Beyond that, there have been 269 articles in 3 local newspapers about this case in Moscow. The coverage has been intense. A CoV means the prosecutor will be dealing with a whole other population, different newspapers and different local media he has less influence with.

All JMO.

 

[Balthazar]

DBM

 

[arielilane]

During combative #Idaho4 hearing late Wednesday, attorneys on both sides disclosed that #BryanKohberger did not stalk a victim. The judge in the murder case also said a defense survey question about the suspect following a victim on social media was false.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778484640854257796

 

[Teche]

How much did the taxpayers get charged for Dr. E’s telephone survey?

 

[Balthazar]

How much did the taxpayers get charged for Dr. E’s telephone survey?

It 40 hours of work of less. Actually one of the less expensive things that are usually done in a Death Penalty Case.

 

[Balthazar]

During combative #Idaho4 hearing late Wednesday, attorneys on both sides disclosed that #BryanKohberger did not stalk a victim. The judge in the murder case also said a defense survey question about the suspect following a victim on social media was false.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778484640854257796

Now we know that BK did not stalk any of the victims nor was he on their social media. So much for the Incel theory that the media has been pushing. Any other theories of why this happened?

 

[Cool Cats]

How much did the taxpayers get charged for Dr. E’s telephone survey?

Deliberately untruthful question. Should get a partial refund....2 Cents