Just based on what I’ve read, I would struggle to convict:
- the bullet casing. I feel like I would need to hear all of this evidence in detail but (and I say this as someone who is not a gun owner and has no knowledge about firearms), what the defence said about needing to compare apples with apples (ie the cycled round with another cycled round from RA’s gun) rather than comparing apples with oranges (the cycled round with a fired round from RA’s gun) makes a great deal of sense to me.
- the eyewitnesses: RA says he was on the trail in similar clothing to BG. The witnesses describe seeing someone who they say was BG but their descriptions are very different from each other and some of the descriptions do not appear to match the photo of BG and definitely do not match RA. I am well aware of the limitations of eyewitness testimony, as memory is a strange thing. But the problem that presents to me is that the state wants us to accept that all the witnesses saw the same person, who is BG, who is RA. In order to do that, it seems that you have to ignore the parts of the eyewitness testimony which do not match up with BG/RA and chalk it up to the inadequacy and inaccuracy of eyewitness testimony, while at the same time accepting the bits which do match up and deem them reliable . But as a juror, how are you supposed to know which bits of the eyewitness description you are supposed to take as fact and which bits you should ignore / change to suit BG/RA?
- I don’t feel like we can really pinpoint a great deal about what the BG in Libby’s video looks like based on the poor quality of the image. I can tell that it is a man who appears to be a bit overweight. I can’t tell if he is young or old. I can’t tell if he has facial hair or not. I can’t tell if that is puffy brown hair or a hat on his head.
- I don’t feel as though the prosecution has convinced me that it isn’t possible or likely for there to have been RA and someone else who is BG out there that day. From what I understand, we cannot say who was in or out of the area at one time on the relevant day. It’s not like an airport terminal where there are security cameras and everyone has to get their passport scanned so that at any one time, if you had to, you could identify who was in the terminal.
Now if, for example (and I’m using an extreme description here to illustrate the point), the person on the bridge captured on Libby’s phone was a 6 foot, size 0, supermodel type female with waist length platinum blonde hair who was dressed as a circus ringmaster in a bright red coat with tails and a top hat , and a person who looked and dressed like that had admitted to being on the trail around that time, I suspect I would find it quite easy to conclude that they were the same person . This is because the chances of there being two separate people who look and dress like that in that area of rural Indiana are very small. But from what I have read on various subs, RA looks like pretty much every middle-age man in Indiana. So does BG. So the likelihood of there being 2 people out there that day who look and dress like that seems much higher .
- the confessions: I find the evidence around this to be perhaps the most unsatisfactory of all. The jury is being asked to decide whether the confessions are the truth or whether they are the product of psychosis. To assist them, they have heard from 2 prosecution experts: Dr Wala (who says that she thought at the time that RA was faking it but now in hindsight, she is not certain), and Dr Martin , who says RA was psychotic . The defence has put up their own expert who says RA was psychotic when he was confessing.
These are people whose job it is to identify and treat mental illness, which includes identifying when someone is faking. if these experts whose job it is can’t agree on whether or not RA was psychotic (and indeed the prosecution’s witnesses disagree among themselves on this point), it makes it a tall order for jurors who (with the exception of one I think) are not experts and do not have training in this field.
- the substance of the confessions. I don’t find the box cutter detail compelling. As I understand it, the sequence of events is that the forensic pathologist did the autopsies in 2017 and said the weapon was a serrated blade. So no mention of a box cutter. RA then confessed to using a box cutter in 2023. Then, on the stand in October 2024, the forensic pathologist said that he thought a box cutter had been used. I may have missed it, but I wish the forensic pathologist had been asked point blank on the stand whether , after RA had mentioned the box cutter, this had been passed on to the forensic pathologist by the police or the prosecutor. Perhaps this is unfair, but I do question why/how the pathologist did not cite the box cutter as the weapon in 2017. He has carried out apparently 8000 autopsies in his career as well as witnessing others so I would have expected him to have seen the wounds made by a box cutter on human flesh in the past such that he could have identified the box cutter as the weapon in this case. As far as the white van detail, that all depends on whether you can be sure that there was in fact a white van there at the time. And on that point , BW seems to have given contradictory statements, so I don’t know how much weight can be given to him.
I don’t know if RA is factually guilty or innocent . My fear is that if he is , stronger evidence of this was lost/ allowed to elude the police because of the many mistakes made early on in the investigation . And equally, if he is factually innocent, perhaps evidence which would have clearly excluded him as a suspect was lost due to the missteps in the investigation .
So because of the police’s incompetence , either a guilty man ends getting away with the murder of 2 children, or if he is innocent and is found not guilty by the jury, an innocent man is forever linked to this crime and will always be seen as a paedophile and child killer by certain people .
Abby and Libby deserved so much in life, and this was brutally taken away from them. In death, they deserved a rigorous , professional investigation into their murders and for all those involved to conduct themselves according to the highest ethical standards.
What they got instead was this mess. And that makes me very angry and sad.
JMO etc..