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Now we know why Trudeau opened the USA border - he's planning to call an election this afternoon. He's probably going to spend his campaign talking about his miracle work with managing the pandemic.
It's interesting - for all of the vociferous support for masks and distancing and closures, those things all appear to be poison at the ballot box. It seems like every hard core Covid Warrior leader that is faced with an electoral challenge instantly changes stripes. I'm guessing the calculus is that many people "go along to get along," but rarely use their secret ballot to vote in favor of restrictions.
It's unfortunate that the campaign is all about pandemic management. It's as though the Canadian political leaders want to imitate the situation South of the border where personal freedom versus social responsibility is a pandemic political divide.
Israel is the test group because, as a country, they were fully vaccinated before any other country; starting in Dec 2020 with the older adult population. In August 2021, 8 months later, the Pfizer vaccine has a severely reduced effectiveness. This is the argument for booster shots starting approximately 6 months after second shot:
Now, the effects of waning immunity may be beginning to show in Israelis vaccinated in early winter; a preprint published last month by physician Tal Patalon and colleagues at KSM, the research arm of MHS, found that protection from COVID-19 infection during June and July dropped in proportion to the length of time since an individual was vaccinated. People vaccinated in January had a 2.26 times greater risk for a breakthrough infection than those vaccinated in April. (Potential confounders include the fact that the very oldest Israelis, with the weakest immune systems, were vaccinated first.)A grim warning from Israel: Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat Delta
"Israel, which has led the world in launching vaccinations and in data gathering, is confronting a surge of COVID-19 cases that officials expect to push hospitals to the brink. Nearly 60% of gravely ill patients are fully vaccinated.
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At the same time, cases in the country, which were scarcely registering at the start of summer, have been doubling every week to 10 days since then, with the Delta variant responsible for most of them. They have now soared to their highest level since mid-February, with hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions beginning to follow. How much of the current surge is due to waning immunity versus the power of the Delta variant to spread like wildfire is uncertain.
What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”
I wonder what the science is behind the CDC deciding to wait until October to give booster shots of the vaccine. Over 65 seniors in many states received their first two doses of Pfizer and Moderna in February and Early March, so the 6 month point is August, i.e. now. They should be implementing this plan now, not waiting until October for those over 65 who were vaccinated fully in February.
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