CANADA Canada - Jack, 4 & Lily Sullivan, 6, Vulnerable, wandered from home 10am, Gairloch Rd, Landsdowne Station, Pictou County, NS, 2 May 2025

[foxe]

Daft question coming up…. But is it Bear country?

the likelihood that the children are alive right now is very low.

If the likelihood that the children are not alive, why would LE be readying to make an arrest (as another poster said)? Seems you're either still missing and weren't found but to say "likelihood is low they're alive" kind of suggests - no leads, not alive. Therefore no arrests? I'd make a poor detective. But just trying to make sense of what posters and LE saying.

 

[Snoop Sister]

All along LE have stated they weren't considering that a reasonable scenario. Likely why none of the reporters asked about it.

Yes, but you know what the RCMP are like. (they are so tight lipped -a good thing but not for us sleuths) There are several different investigations going on. I am pretty sure the nature of these investigations won’t be released to the public until they finish fact finding and an arrest is made or the children are found etc.

For readers not from Canada - RCMP = Royal Canadian Mounted Police. They are our national police force.

 

[MollyHarps]

It was a very factual conference with not much new information except regarding scaling back search.

I felt it was abit like a ‘holding’ press conference - I feel the breakthrough in this case is very close.

 

[Ontario Mom]

Sounds like last Wednesday, at the latest, that they were last seen by one else - that we know of, at this point. They were off school Thursday and Friday. So, going on seven days.


What we know about the search for missing N.S. children

If those who last saw the kids before they were reported missing haven't given any interviews to the media, there's no way we can state with any certainty when/who last saw them.

For all we know, Martell's mom or brother saw them every day. They're not giving interviews so, we'd never know that.

 

[vls12345]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/pictou-county-missing-children-lily-jack-sullivan-may-7-1.7528438

BBM:

Six days after two children went missing from a rural Pictou County home, RCMP say they are scaling back the search and have not ruled out that the case is suspicious.

MacKinnon said all missing persons files "are treated as suspicious until our investigation leads us to determine otherwise."

 

[foxe]

It was a very factual conference with not much new information except regarding scaling back search.

I felt it was abit like a ‘holding’ press conference - I feel the breakthrough in this case is very close.

How can they be about to declare a "breakthrough" if no bodies found? Make an arrest when likelihood they're alive is "low." Unless someone has confessed something.....or if no bodies found, but suspicion of abduction but then LE would not have worked 24/7 up until today on SAR with 0 results. They would have figured out it's an abduction so tell us what you know.

That press conference was so dry and uninformative. Ugh.

 

[Ontario Mom]

If the likelihood that the children are not alive, why would LE be readying to make an arrest (as another poster said)? Seems you're either still missing and weren't found but to say "likelihood is low they're alive" kind of suggests - no leads, not alive. Therefore no arrests? I'd make a poor detective. But just trying to make sense of what posters and LE saying.

Some posters are admittedly going off feelings and assumptions.
LE is going off of facts.

 

[MistyWaters]

Sounds like last Wednesday, at the latest, that they were last seen by one else - that we know of, at this point. They were off school Thursday and Friday. So, going on seven days.


What we know about the search for missing N.S. children

Seven days? They were reported missing @10am Friday, May 2 so they’ve been missing for the past six days while extensive searches have been conducted.

 

[MistyWaters]

How can they be about to declare a "breakthrough" if no bodies found? Make an arrest when likelihood they're alive is "low." Unless someone has confessed something.....or if no bodies found, but suspicion of abduction but then LE would not have worked 24/7 up until today on SAR with 0 results. They would have figured out it's an abduction so tell us what you know.

That press conference was so dry and uninformative. Ugh.

Agreed, RCMP blah neutral-style that most definitely did NOT hint at any investigative breakthrough IMO.

 

[foxe]

I take back what I said earlier. Maybe LE are suspicious because if for no other reason, the step-father and mother are now effectively separated - or not communicating. So, from LE standpoint, big red flag. Hope LE has access to someone similar to detective who interviewed Colonel Russell Williams.

 

[foxe]

Agreed, RCMP blah neutral-style that most definitely did NOT hint at any investigative breakthrough IMO.

It was very - IDK - I don't want to say dismissive but like...'don't get your hopes up' type of vibe. They didn't seem like they wanted to be there at the press conference to field questions, very perfunctory. Just the vibe I got.

ETA: Typically, I watch American press conferences about various issues (terrorism, abductions, murders, etc) and the Americans always seem super engaged, super team work, excellent feedback, incredible detail, maps, diagrams, etc. Professionals - medics, forensics, involved. This situation? Hardly anyone - except for 1 detective, 1 or 2 LE. That's it.

 

[MistyWaters]

It was a very factual conference with not much new information except regarding scaling back search.

I felt it was abit like a ‘holding’ press conference - I feel the breakthrough in this case is very close.

The point of the PC was to announce the original ‘Rescue’ intent of the search has been discontinued and while I don’t think it was exactly expressed, what ‘scaling back’ indicates is they will revisit certain areas this time searching for their bodies. For example the exhausted and cold children could’ve crawled under logs or into fallen tree piles in an attempt to stay dry and due to no nourishment being available, death would’ve occurred. JMO

 

[JDG]

Update in hunt for siblings who vanished into wilds of Nova Scotia

Jack Sullivan, 4, and his sister Lily, 6, were last seen about 10am on Friday on a road close to their home in Lansdowne Station, Nova Scotia.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[MistyWaters]

It was very - IDK - I don't want to say dismissive but like...'don't get your hopes up' type of vibe. They didn't seem like they wanted to be there at the press conference to field questions, very perfunctory. Just the vibe I got.

ETA: Typically, I watch American press conferences about various issues (terrorism, abductions, murders, etc) and the Americans always seem super engaged, super team work, excellent feedback, incredible detail, maps, diagrams, etc. Professionals - medics, forensics, involved. This situation? Hardly anyone - except for 1 detective, 1 or 2 LE. That's it.

US LE and Canadian RCMP are as different as night and day mainly because our polce perform an unelected, unpoliticized job. ie they don’t speak to impress anybody. You will also notice they are very intent on not inviting or encouraging speculation, nor do they take liberty in sharing details of their ongoing investigation. It’s just the way it is.

 

[Fabled Automatic]

Seven days? They were reported missing @10am Friday, May 2 so they’ve been missing for the past six days while extensive searches have been conducted.

Yes, going on 7 days since, by their own step-father's account, they were last in school.

The children's stepfather, Daniel Martell, told CBC News that Lily and Jack were last seen on the morning of May 2.

The children attend pre-primary and primary at Salt Springs Elementary, but Martell said they were not at school on Friday, May 2, because Lily had a cough, and they were also home sick from school the day before.

What we know about the search for missing N.S. children

 

[branmuffin]

The best description of the timeline comes from this article: Search continues for two missing Pictou County children

“The sun was already up and Lily came into the (bedroom),” said Martell. “She had a pink shirt on. We could hear Jackie in the kitchen. A few minutes later we didn’t hear them so I went out to check. The sliding door was closed. Their boots were gone.”... Martell said he immediately jumped in the car and searched neighbouring roads, looking in culverts. By the time he returned home, the RCMP were on the scene after being called by the children’s mother."

According to the RCMP, the search began "just after 10 a.m." (on May 2nd): Missing children: Help the RCMP find Lily Sullivan and Jack Sullivan | Royal Canadian Mounted Police

I hope LE went in Martel's vehicle with him to retrace the locations he went to.

 

[Andreee]

they MAY bring in cadaver dogs. I hope they do. I remember the case where a professor, suspect in a murder case, hid himself under a pallet or something like that in the wilderness and shot himself. Searchers walked right by him. It was a cadaver dog who found him.

Yes, as WSers we have seen over and over again, missing person cases where an area has been searched many times, and the deceased not being found til years later! Or after several searches. Especially when the missing person is small. So IMO it is worth continuing to search for awhile yet, particularly with trained dogs.

 

[MistyWaters]

Yes, going on 7 days since, by their own step-father's account, they were last in school.


What we know about the search for missing N.S. children

Read what you posted. The step-fathers account is the children were last seen the morning of May 2 by him and the children’s mother before they went missing that same day. No facts have been released about who saw what or where prior to the date of May 2nd so we just don’t know.

 

[Fabled Automatic]

Read what you posted. The step-fathers account is the children were last seen the morning of May 2 by him and the children’s mother before they went missing that same day. No facts have been released about who saw what or where prior to the date May 2nd so we just don’t know.

I'm well aware of what I stated. I stated that it is reportedly at least almost seven days - that we know of - since anyone else has seen the kids. Meaning, there are currently no public reports of anyone else having seen them since.

I stated nothing about them not having been seen as a fact. I simply pointed out that there are no reports of anyone besides the parents having seen them for a week - which I supported with an article three times.

Either you think I'm stating something I'm not, or you're choosing to get hung up on some perceived angle. Either way, you're free to disregard my statement if you don't like it. It's simply an observation based on the current publicly available information.

 

[MistyWaters]

Update in hunt for siblings who vanished into wilds of Nova Scotia

Jack Sullivan, 4, and his sister Lily, 6, were last seen about 10am on Friday on a road close to their home in Lansdowne Station, Nova Scotia.

www.dailymail.co.uk

DM creating unnecessary sensationalism. It’s certainly never been reported by any reliable source the children were last seen near a road and that’s why DM can’t say who sighted them.

Neither do I recall this being stated during the PC - BBM (give it an hour or two and it will go whoosh!)
“MacKinnon added 'we're not packing up and we're not giving up', saying that all missing persons files remained 'suspicious until our investigation leads us to determine otherwise'.”