Canada - USA Trade War commencing March 2025

[LoveyG]

DBM

 

[keek]

A day after offering Canada a one-month reprieve on punishing nearly across-the-board 25% tariffs, President Donald Trump has threatened new tariffs as soon as Friday on Canadian lumber and dairy products.

“Canada has been ripping us off for years on lumber and on dairy products,” Trump said in an Oval Office address Friday, citing Canada’s roughly 250% tariff on US dairy exports to the country. Trump said America would match those tariffs dollar-for-dollar.

“We may do it as early as today, or we’ll wait until Monday or Tuesday,” Trump said. “We’re going to charge the same thing. It’s not fair. It never has been fair, and they’ve treated our farmers badly.”

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada?Date=20250307&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1741368874&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Builders, for one, are being hurt now and more in the immediate future. Timber, mostly bought from Canada per a builder I spoke with today. Home and building new builds will be much, much more higher due to this. Construction companies out of business, their workers, out of jobs. The deadly trickle down begins to us all. Of course this involves all aspects, roofers, electricians, plumbers, you name it, and that is just the wood frame building industry. No money, no consumerism and on and on. This is why analysts are knowing a terrible recession /depression on the way.

 

[otto]

A day after offering Canada a one-month reprieve on punishing nearly across-the-board 25% tariffs, President Donald Trump has threatened new tariffs as soon as Friday on Canadian lumber and dairy products.

“Canada has been ripping us off for years on lumber and on dairy products,” Trump said in an Oval Office address Friday, citing Canada’s roughly 250% tariff on US dairy exports to the country. Trump said America would match those tariffs dollar-for-dollar.

“We may do it as early as today, or we’ll wait until Monday or Tuesday,” Trump said. “We’re going to charge the same thing. It’s not fair. It never has been fair, and they’ve treated our farmers badly.”

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada?Date=20250307&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1741368874&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Tariff on USA dairy is 7.5% providing the USA does not exceed quota. Dumping surplus USA dairy in Canada contravenes supply chain management. Donald knows this, but he wants to dump unneeded USA surplus product in Canada.

Donald knows the facts regarding Canada dairy supply chain management because it was a very expensive mistake last time he was president. He is knowingly dishonest when he cites 270% tariffs. He is using propaganda to convince USA people that they are being cheated - Donald knows that it is untrue. He is presenting a tiny piece of the facts.

0401.10.10

00

Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter. - Of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1% - Within access commitment

KGM

7.5%

CCCT, LDCT, UST, CT, CRT, PT, COLT, JT, PAT, CEUT, UAT, CPTPT: Free GPT 7.5%

Chapter 4 - T2020

Chapter 4 - T2020

www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca

Trump Tariff Aid To Farmers Cost More Than U.S. Nuclear Forces

The $28 billion for farmers raises questions about using taxpayer money to shield policymakers from the consequences of tariff increases.

www.forbes.com

Regarding softwood lumber, tariff was 14%, he added 25% to that, now it's 40%. Drill baby drill, clear-cut baby clear-cut, build earthquake and hurricane zone houses with saplings not lumber.

 

[Herat]

Having been there, I can vouch that SSA works on extreme austerity as it is. My own agency was already down over 200 workers with a 'no hiring' policy. There is high attrition due to work loads but no ability to replace workers who leave until budgeted. Customer service tanks. The public screams that no one is answering the phones or helping them. Everything is too slow. Yea, duh.

Edit: to keep this on topic, with the increased prices on food and household goods via tariffs, expect a much larger than usual number of people turning to SSA for assistance, with even fewer people there to take the calls and help the public. This will be interesting. Mark my words, the remaining employees will be blamed for the poor service and failures of the agency.

My experience with finally enrolling for Social Security was amazingly good.

After figuring out that the calls from SSA were not spam, I was assigned to one specific person who gave me his real name. He was extremely helpful and asked me questions to make sure that I understood how the calculation of benefits was made, and exactly how much the deduction for Medicare and Part D was going to be. He even reviewed my history of contributions and found that I was owed a refund for overpayment to Medicare. He also explained that he was my SS contact for any further questions and gave me a specific phone number for his services.

I was expecting a bored and disinterested "typical public servant" attitude and I got what felt like very professional, very thorough, very personal and very insightful service.

I will stop posting SSA comments on this thread, but would welcome a Private Message conversation if someone wants to set it up.

This thread is far too detailed and important to get stuck cross-posting. Thank you for your indulgence in my concerns.

 

[otto]

Builders, for one, are being hurt now and more in the immediate future. Timber, mostly bought from Canada per a builder I spoke with today. Home and building new builds will be much, much more higher due to this. Construction companies out of business, their workers, out of jobs. The deadly trickle down begins to us all. Of course this involves all aspects, roofers, electricians, plumbers, you name it, and that is just the wood frame building industry. No money, no consumerism and on and on. This is why analysts are knowing a terrible recession /depression on the way.

Lumber suppliers need to look to the rest of Canada for customers - a trade barrier free customer base. Residential construction is at an all time high. The reason is that Canada accepted too many newcomers without first ensuring infrastructure was in place. Housing is desperately needed (especially in Western Canada) to catch up with population growth.

Every industry in the country has to pivot and look East-West rather than South. Can the softwood lumber industry pivot?

 

[Cedars]

A day after offering Canada a one-month reprieve on punishing nearly across-the-board 25% tariffs, President Donald Trump has threatened new tariffs as soon as Friday on Canadian lumber and dairy products.

“Canada has been ripping us off for years on lumber and on dairy products,” Trump said in an Oval Office address Friday, citing Canada’s roughly 250% tariff on US dairy exports to the country. Trump said America would match those tariffs dollar-for-dollar.

“We may do it as early as today, or we’ll wait until Monday or Tuesday,” Trump said. “We’re going to charge the same thing. It’s not fair. It never has been fair, and they’ve treated our farmers badly.”

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/07/business/tariffs-trump-canada?Date=20250307&Profile=CNN&utm_content=1741368874&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

These are nothing new - long standing issues.

Canada hasn't in the past tried to export dairy to the US. Just protect Canadian farmers from cheap imports, so all our dairy is local. In particular, this is a big issue in supporting Quebec.

https://www.montrealgazette.com/news/article749094.html

So tariffs from the US have never mattered.

Softwood lumber has also been an issue forever. In Canada, the government owns most of the forested land and leases it to forest companies. This is good, because they insist on reforestation, and can guarantee a very large, continuous supply of lumber. But to the US it's "unfair", since the US lumber industry depends on owning private land.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/california-rebuild-wildfires-tariffs-1.7451715

ETA added links

 

[otto]

These are nothing new - long standing issues.

Canada hasn't in the past tried to export dairy to the US. Just protect Canadian farmers from cheap imports, so all our dairy is local. In particular, this is a big issue in supporting Quebec.

So tariffs from the US have never mattered.

Softwood lumber has also been an issue forever. In Canada, the government owns most of the forested land and leases it to forest companies. This is good, because they insist on reforestation, and can guarantee a very large, continuous supply of lumber. But to the US it's "unfair", since the US lumber industry depends on owning private land.

It sounds like Trump wants to sell off federal land in California so it can be de-forested (clear-cut) without consideration for the future. The problem is that whoever buys the land still has to build lumber mills, develop supply chain, and respect California environmental law. It's not as easy as it sounds. Meanwhile, LA fire victims require lumber today.

"Dan Dunmoyer, president of the California Building Industry Association, said Wednesday that “there aren’t really alternatives” to Canadian lumber used for homebuilding in the state because about 80 per cent of Californian land is owned by the federal or state governments and can’t be logged.

Dunmoyer also said California lacks mills, environmental policies and supply chains that would allow a quick switch to local lumber production, and making those changes would likely take years.

“We are very dependent on Canadian lumber,” he said. “We like Canadian lumber. It’s super high-quality, properly harvested for the environment. It’s really quality material.

“I understand from a president or a prime minister’s perspective, it’s all about jobs. It’s all about making sure your people have an income and a lifestyle, the quality of life, that’s enjoyable ... But to try to do this over a weekend and say, ‘Hey, we just want to put these big tariffs on any country without creating the economy within your own country,’ (it) just means higher prices, full stop, full period.”

California builders say few alternatives to Canadian timber, despite tariff threat

California homebuilders say they have few options but to keep buying Canadian lumber, even if it's hit with 25 per cent tariffs, as they rebuild thousands of homes destroyed by devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

 

[Herat]

It sounds like Trump wants to sell off federal land in California so it can be de-forested (clear-cut) without consideration for the future. The problem is that whoever buys the land still has to build lumber mills, develop supply chain, and respect California environmental law. It's not as easy as it sounds. Meanwhile, LA fire victims require lumber today.

"Dan Dunmoyer, president of the California Building Industry Association, said Wednesday that “there aren’t really alternatives” to Canadian lumber used for homebuilding in the state because about 80 per cent of Californian land is owned by the federal or state governments and can’t be logged.

Dunmoyer also said California lacks mills, environmental policies and supply chains that would allow a quick switch to local lumber production, and making those changes would likely take years.

“We are very dependent on Canadian lumber,” he said. “We like Canadian lumber. It’s super high-quality, properly harvested for the environment. It’s really quality material.

“I understand from a president or a prime minister’s perspective, it’s all about jobs. It’s all about making sure your people have an income and a lifestyle, the quality of life, that’s enjoyable ... But to try to do this over a weekend and say, ‘Hey, we just want to put these big tariffs on any country without creating the economy within your own country,’ (it) just means higher prices, full stop, full period.”

California builders say few alternatives to Canadian timber, despite tariff threat

California homebuilders say they have few options but to keep buying Canadian lumber, even if it's hit with 25 per cent tariffs, as they rebuild thousands of homes destroyed by devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

I have a great deal of trouble trying to reconcile current home prices with the looming increase in lumbar supplies for future building.

In my area, a decent new build is $500,000. If you want decent schools for your children, especially.

You usually need a two-income family at jobs with benefits to come anywhere near making monthly mortgage payments on a loan that large. Where are the two incomes going to come from if you are cutting out the infrastructure jobs that don't look like much in title but are necessary to keep governmental and state agencies going?

And it gets ever worse with a looming recession. Truly, this is set up for the very wealthy FOT (Friends of Trump) to win.

 

[otto]

I have a great deal of trouble trying to reconcile current home prices with the looming increase in lumbar supplies for future building.

In my area, a decent new build is $500,000. If you want decent schools for your children, especially.

You usually need a two-income family at jobs with benefits to come anywhere near making monthly mortgage payments on a loan that large. Where are the two incomes going to come from if you are cutting out the infrastructure jobs that don't look like much in title but are necessary to keep governmental and state agencies going?

And it gets ever worse with a looming recession. Truly, this is set up for the very wealthy FOT (Friends of Trump) to win.

It's what we expect from Donald. He has a big mouth about not needing anything from Canada because the USA can do it all alone. He puts a tariff on everything from Canada, and then has to admit that the USA has nothing in place to do it alone.

He does not consider the consequences of his actions, and now everyone in the USA has to adjust to living with radical, poorly considered decisions; some of which cannot be undone. The war against Canada cannot be undone, but Canada will continue to supply materials to the USA as needed, albeit with the added tax imposed by their government.

 

[LovesPeace2]

Tariff on USA dairy is 7.5% providing the USA does not exceed quota. Dumping surplus USA dairy in Canada contravenes supply chain management. Donald knows this, but he wants to dump unneeded USA surplus product in Canada.

Donald knows the facts regarding Canada dairy supply chain management because it was a very expensive mistake last time he was president. He is knowingly dishonest when he cites 270% tariffs. He is using propaganda to convince USA people that they are being cheated - Donald knows that it is untrue. He is presenting a tiny piece of the facts.

0401.10.10

00

Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter. - Of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1% - Within access commitment

KGM

7.5%

CCCT, LDCT, UST, CT, CRT, PT, COLT, JT, PAT, CEUT, UAT, CPTPT: Free GPT 7.5%

Chapter 4 - T2020

Chapter 4 - T2020

www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca

Trump Tariff Aid To Farmers Cost More Than U.S. Nuclear Forces

The $28 billion for farmers raises questions about using taxpayer money to shield policymakers from the consequences of tariff increases.

www.forbes.com

Regarding softwood lumber, tariff was 14%, he added 25% to that, now it's 40%. Drill baby drill, clear-cut baby clear-cut, build earthquake and hurricane zone houses with saplings not lumber.

My partner works at a mill in bc they work in finished and semi finished interior and exterior product they've been doing more business over seas the last few years ,they are hopeful to get threw this . But it's going to suck for the USA because their consumers will be paying the increase cost. They kind of need our lumber what are their options after all the fires and disasters.trumps making it hard for both sides jmvho

 

[Charlot123]

To remember the phrase ascribed to Talleyrand: "it was worse than a crime, it was a mistake."
Paraphrasing, "it is worse than a tariff war. It is a mistake."

 

[otto]

My partner works at a mill in bc they work in finished and semi finished interior and exterior product they've been doing more business over seas the last few years ,they are hopeful to get threw this . But it's going to suck for the USA because their consumers will be paying the increase cost. They kind of need our lumber what are their options after all the fires and disasters.trumps making it hard for both sides jmvho

There's no question that California needs Canadian softwood lumber.

Donald's supporters can shout from the tree tops all day long that they have their own high quality housing construction lumber, but the president of the California Building Industry Association 100% disagrees. He knows that Canadian lumber is needed, and he knows that tariffs on lumber means that Californians will pay 40% more (at a minimum) for necessary construction materials.

That might mean that the insurance industry has to pay that excess cost, which could mean that insurance rates are equalized and increased across the country. That means that individuals across the country pay more for insurance, and have less money for basic needs. That is Donald's idea of making everyone "rich again" through taxes.

 

[otto]

To remember the phrase ascribed to Talleyrand: "it was worse than a crime, it was a mistake."
Paraphrasing, "it is worse than a tariff war. It is a mistake."

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated as much early this week. He told Donald that it is a mistake. Crystia Freeland called the tariffs "self-mutilation."

 

[Charlot123]

some shows are on to him not really being able to read... he could not read the invite from the King and had Starmer read it for him...wonder if he is dyslexic

I am not sure. We have to look at young DT. But, it could fit. However, 5-8% Americans are dyslexic to a degree. It has to do with diphthongs, too.

 

[otto]

I am not sure. We have to look at young DT. But, it could fit. However, 5-8% Americans are dyslexic to a degree. It has to do with diphthongs, too.

He might have difficulty reading cursive writing. That's common today although, at the age of 78, Donald should know cursive. Maybe he needs glasses - it's worth checking next time we see him talking to someone whether he has focused eyes, or a general direction look.

 

[Charlot123]

It sounds like Trump wants to sell off federal land in California so it can be de-forested (clear-cut) without consideration for the future. The problem is that whoever buys the land still has to build lumber mills, develop supply chain, and respect California environmental law. It's not as easy as it sounds. Meanwhile, LA fire victims require lumber today.

"Dan Dunmoyer, president of the California Building Industry Association, said Wednesday that “there aren’t really alternatives” to Canadian lumber used for homebuilding in the state because about 80 per cent of Californian land is owned by the federal or state governments and can’t be logged.

Dunmoyer also said California lacks mills, environmental policies and supply chains that would allow a quick switch to local lumber production, and making those changes would likely take years.

“We are very dependent on Canadian lumber,” he said. “We like Canadian lumber. It’s super high-quality, properly harvested for the environment. It’s really quality material.

“I understand from a president or a prime minister’s perspective, it’s all about jobs. It’s all about making sure your people have an income and a lifestyle, the quality of life, that’s enjoyable ... But to try to do this over a weekend and say, ‘Hey, we just want to put these big tariffs on any country without creating the economy within your own country,’ (it) just means higher prices, full stop, full period.”

California builders say few alternatives to Canadian timber, despite tariff threat

California homebuilders say they have few options but to keep buying Canadian lumber, even if it's hit with 25 per cent tariffs, as they rebuild thousands of homes destroyed by devastating wildfires in Los Angeles.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Federal land is not his land, is it?
Remind me what branch is presidency?
Executive, right?
Not commercial.

Now, granted, Biden leaving and pardoning his own family also leaves a bad aftertaste. This has to stop.

 

[otto]

Federal land is not his land, is it?
Remind me what branch is presidency?
Executive, right?
Not commercial.

Now, granted, Biden leaving and pardoning his own family also leaves a bad aftertaste. This has to stop.

I don't know, but I do know that the Canadian government oversees federal land, and can sell off chunks if it seems like a good idea.

Federal properties for sale - Canada.ca

Provides a listing of Canadian federal surplus of properties for sale to the general public

www.canada.ca

For Sale: 104 - Rural, Niagara On The Lake, Ontario - Canada.ca

Government of Canada property for sale

www.canada.ca

 

[Cedars]

I have a great deal of trouble trying to reconcile current home prices with the looming increase in lumbar supplies for future building.

In my area, a decent new build is $500,000. If you want decent schools for your children, especially.

You usually need a two-income family at jobs with benefits to come anywhere near making monthly mortgage payments on a loan that large. Where are the two incomes going to come from if you are cutting out the infrastructure jobs that don't look like much in title but are necessary to keep governmental and state agencies going?

And it gets ever worse with a looming recession. Truly, this is set up for the very wealthy FOT (Friends of Trump) to win.

Yes. However the same problem is happening in Canada, so I don't think it's primarily about tariffs on lumber.

IMO lumber is a very, very small portion of the cost of building a modern home. Nobody's building log cabins!

It's the cost of land, putting in utilities like sewer systems - everything else that goes into fancy modern buildings/castles like high quality windows and roofing, insulation, piping, etc, and labour costs.

IMO it used to be construction and trades were not very well paid, now they are an excellent way to become very well-off.

Not saying at all that it's wrong, but IMO it's real and has an impact.

What do people on both sides of the border do, who want to make money on real estate?: DIY. If you can do your own building/renovation, you can do it so much more cheaply.

Also, it's the competition for housing in certain areas - an area becomes desireable, more people move there. Once it becomes too expensive, people move somewhere else. Like NYC, people have been abandoning it for years.

JMO

 

[Auntie Cipation]

Federal land is not his land, is it?
Remind me what branch is presidency?
Executive, right?
Not commercial.

Now, granted, Biden leaving and pardoning his own family also leaves a bad aftertaste. This has to stop.

Federal land management is, unfortunately in this case, also under the Executive branch. The cabinet departments of Agriculture and Interior control most federal land. The Department of Commerce is also a cabinet level agency in the Executive branch.

However, you are correct that it is not "his" land. It belongs, in theory at least, to the American people.

 

[Cedars]

I don't know, but I do know that the Canadian government oversees federal land, and can sell off chunks if it seems like a good idea.

Federal properties for sale - Canada.ca

Provides a listing of Canadian federal surplus of properties for sale to the general public

www.canada.ca

For Sale: 104 - Rural, Niagara On The Lake, Ontario - Canada.ca

Government of Canada property for sale

www.canada.ca

However, in BC, where most of the lumber comes from, it's provincial crown land. That's because BC was a separate colony of the British Empire, before it joined Confederation.

Crown Land & Water

Crown Land and Water use

www2.gov.bc.ca