4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #98

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  • #301
I have as much anorak hankering for stats as the next man (having studied it) but I feel like there is a bunch of whataboutism in this filing. Labs have been matching DNA between suspects and DNA recovered from crime scenes for decades. Are we really going to start suggesting they don't know what a water tight match is? Suddenly in this case?
After reaching that statistical rarity, someone should have thought: maybe we should check our method/database. JMO
Barlow is arguing in that filing as to whether the details of the IGG need to be disclosed. But the evidence against him is not the IGG. It is the direct match obtained betweeh his DNA and that found at the crime scene.
The expert witnesses testified how the IGG would relate back to the statistical analysis of the STR and the STR match itself.
jmo
So i understand the constitutional IGG argument - ultimately the highest appeal courts in the land will decide - but as a factual question, I am not seeing any fallacy here. We know its a stone cold match.
I am waiting for the details of the actual sample tested and how it was analyzed.
Would like to hear what the D expert has to say (unlikely in this secret case).
Just the fact it was reported that way makes me want to see more.
jmo
 
  • #302
I have some sympathy for this argument.

Though again, ultimately I am not sure how it helps the defence unless you really believe other suspects were revealed and somehow one of them is the real killer whose DNA will also be a direct match?
This part is interesting.
Posters have disagreed about what this is addressing, especially the last paragraph of this section.
And for clarity: Since this was written we know that the unknowns were not searched in CODIS.
JMO

page 13/14
Like where does this inquiry take you? What dark secrets are concealed? Why would the FBI have decided not to bother about alt suspects?
Court hearings have revealed that there were alternate suspects being invesigated.

JMO
edit: spelling
 
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  • #303
I know this was mentioned right after the murders, but I thought I would link it again since we're discussing DNA and it's involvement in this case and for those who might have missed it:

<snipped & BBM>

Kohberger told neighbor of prior DNA test, raising questions about how police found him
By Kevin Fixler Updated January 18, 2023


Bryan Kohberger told a fellow Washington State University graduate student living in the same on-campus housing complex that he submitted his DNA for consumer genetic testing to explore his ancestry, the neighbor told the Idaho Statesman.

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/crime/article271252642.html
 
  • #304
Do you have a link showing that the DNA was found "deep in the snap?" What I have seen documented is that the DNA was "on the knife sheath" or "on the button of the snap."

Incidentally, you cannot "wipe" DNA off an object using a lint free cloth. Removing DNA requires the use of solvents.

"Moreover, fresh bleach, stored bleach, Trigene®, and sodium hypochlorite were very efficient in removing DNA, with recoveries from 0.0 to 0.3% from all surfaces. These five decontamination strategies (EtOH+UV, fresh bleach, stored bleach, Trigene®, and sodium hypochlorite) resulted in less than 1% of the DNA recovered from the surface."


There was no detection of any solvent being used on the sheath. BK had the background to know he should use a solvent to clean DNA off of objects. The fact there was no solvent used on the sheath tells me, it was likely not him. BK would have known better and used bleach to clean anything he had touched. Also, the DNA would have been on the sheath for many hours - at least 12 hours within the house and probably much longer. IF and I mean ONLY IF the DNA was located on the sheath snap, IF it is a real KBar Sheath, the snap is made of untreated brass and untreated brass degrades DNA, usually within an hour of contact. That means the 20 skin cell sample is not only miniscule it is likely to have been degraded.



DNA can be wiped off a surface with even a dry cloth depending on the surface and the amount and type of the DNA; however completely eliminating all traces can be difficult to achieve.

(…)

Even without a cleaning product, rubbing with a dry cloth decreased DNA recovery from the mugs regardless of the mug substrate.

(…)

These results contribute to our understanding of the impact of various cleaning methods on DNA recovery at the crime scene and will help inform DNA recovery strategies when it is expected cleaning has taken place.

(…)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scien...uction,exhibits, specifically knives and mugs.

On the button snap is what we are discussing, no?

Logic would say it would be tucked to the sides when BK exerted pressure to work the snap on the typically stiff leather of sheaths and missed reaming around while cleaning but sure let’s have it anywhere on the snap it doesn’t matter.

BK’s and BK’s DNA alone was on the sheath cast aside and forgotten while BK was killing and subsequently found on the dead girl’s bed where it had no business what so ever.


All imo
 
  • #305
It depends on the method used to report the number.
What population model did they use?
What database?
jmo

Bicka B declaration:

7 In its Motion, the government misstates the statistical rarity ofthe comparison to the DNA from the sheath (at pg 6) “the STR profile is at least 5.37 octillion times more likely to be seen if Defendant is the source than if an unrelated individual randomly selected from the general population is the source.” This reported statistic for this comparison is a Likelihood Ratio, similar to a RMP, which compares two competing hypotheses. The govemment’s statement is extremely misleading and is essentially the “Prosecutor’s Fallacy.” “The fallacy is to say that [the probability] is also the probability that the DNA at the crime scene came from someone other than the defendant. . . . It does not say that the odds that the suspect contributed the evidence are 1,000: l .” National Research Council, THE EVALUATION OF FORENSIC DNA EVIDENCE, I996, at pg 133.

Page 11

The "prosecutor's fallacy"—also called the fallacy of the transposed conditional—is to confuse two conditional probabilities. Let P equal the probability of a match, given the evidence genotype. The fallacy is to say that P is also the probability that the DNA at the crime scene came from someone other than the defendant. An LR of 1,000 says that the match is 1,000 times as probable if the evidence and the suspect samples that share the same profile are from the same person as it is if the samples are from different persons. It does not say that the odds that the suspect contributed the evidence DNA are 1,000:1. To obtain such a probability requires using Bayes's theorem and a prior probability that is assumed or estimated on the basis of non-DNA evidence. As stated earlier, only if that prior probability is 1/2 will the posterior odds equal the LR.
So I want to preface this by saying, re:the prosecutors fallacy, though I like to repeat that 1 in 5 quintillion number as damning evidence against BK. I don't think that Prosecutors need it. Their case is just as strong without it. It's about the confluence of evidence for me. Dismissing all of it (or most of it) as coincidences, misunderstandings, or a frame job is illogical. And I think the jury will ultimately find that to be a unreasonable conclusion.

So I read Barlow's (a defense hired expert, from my understanding) filling this morning and took notes. I'm a crappy note taker so here's only the first half. I'll finish turning the other half into real worlds later.

Disclaimer : this is my opinion. I'm not an expert. I'm not even close to one. Do not claim to be one. I'm not going to disagree with any of the science because I can't. I read this in a vacuum, as a layman, with no Google.

This is my interpretation of things that I read and noticed...ALL JMO!!!!
  • IMO Barlow uses the term "Standard STR" and never defines what "Standard STR" is. This immediately set off my spidey senses and I knew she was going for a broad unreliability argument. Lumping together partial and complete.
  • But I was wrong. She doesn't even make an attempt to mention what a complete profile is. It's almost like she acts like it doesn't exist. MOO
  • The furthest she goes is to say that STR profiles are designed to produce a comprehensive set of markers. But never tells us what the most comprehensive set of markers looks like and means in relation to her argument. JMO
  • In my reading and opinion she is more than happy though to bundle "degraded" or "partial" STR profiles under "Standard STR". Or at least heavily implies it and makes no attempts to qualify those against 'Standard STR'. Just leaves it up to the imagination. JMO
  • She goes on to talk about how the degraded and partial STR profiles resulted in multiple mis-matches in CODIS.
  • Of course she mentions that those darn degraded and partial profiles were also extracted from mixed blood. Just like in BKs case.
  • It's really too bad she doesn't go into any examples of a FULL profile (not my characterization) being extracted and put into a database like CODIS...........
  • Luckily we don't need her to answer that question. The Moscow police did.....They've been pretty clear about the profile that they have. It matched BKs. And they've never classified it as "partial" nor "degraded".
  • I'm going to assume that the defense has the DNA evidence and could have talked more explicitly about BKs extracted profile and it's hit in CODIS? Wonder Barlow didn't do that....it makes the DMP stuff read like 'pounding the table' IMO
  • Instead...I noticed multiple times while reading that I found myself trying to figure out if she was still talking about SNP and IGG or if she was talking about STR and CODIS. Like with her use of 'Standard STR', a distinction (via a direct comparison) is rarely made. This is my opinion and interpretation of what I read.
  • The filing is about 80% about IGG and SNP and Familial DB by my reading. STR gets mentioned in all of it's worst case scenarios but never to the level of what Moscow PD imply/claim they ave.
  • I'm suspecting that if Barlow did directly address the actual profile pulled from the local lab....this entire document would be moot. But then the ' the ends are just as unreliable as the means ' argument wouldn't work. JMO
I'll get together the other notes and post a part 2.
 
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  • #306
Continuing on what I’m interpreting as a “The Ends Are Just As Unreliable As The Means” argument.

From this document

And my original post
Note: i do not question the science. Do not try and comment on the science. Or contradict the science. Everything is in the paper. As a layman I am reading this with very little prior knkowledge. No Googl'ing of any kind. All of my questions and observations come directly from my understanding of Barlow's argument on it's face.

Last we left off Barlow was talking about the possibility that IGG leads to the wrong suspect and implying that 'Standard STR' itself isn't reliable enough to kill doubts with the IGG. She does this using DMP and RMP. Not only is that weak in IMO . I think it’s outright misleading. (if not outright misleading). Anyone who has an English dictionary and took a basic level stats course can see it. JMO

Again, I am not an expert of any kind and am not making any scientific assertions....JMO
  • I'm reading her words and I can see that DMP and RMP are REALLY different and shouldn't be compared. But she repeatedly compares them, and even equates and conflates them, like she did with SNP and STR, and CODIS and IGG, and Partial/Degraded profiles to non-partial/degraded profiles. I'm noticing a trend. MOO
  • How do they read different? IMO....as I read Barlow's own words (im talking about specifically in this document, i claim no knowledge beforehand).
    • DMP
      • barlow's use: IGG in relation to SNP
      • measures: likeliness of coincidental match
      • sample size: totally depends on the database
    • RMP
      • barlow's use: CODIS in relation to STR
      • measures: rarity aka unlikeliness
      • sample size: PLANET EARTH
        • 7 or 8 billion?
  • Right off the bat, IMO, the false equivalency of STR and SNP and IGG and CODIS should standout to you. Which further drives home what I was saying in my intial post about the conflation. This is why Barlow never tells us what 'Standard STR' is in my opinion and sticks to Moscow PDs probability insted of addressing the DNA evidence she likely has in her possession.
  • If its not clear yet DMP and RMP are going to result in polar opposite measurements (negative vs a positive) with WILDLY different probabilities. JMO
  • Which IMO, becomes a gigantic problem when DMP is going to always produce a fairly small is 1 in X likely hood of coincidental match against a database that will never rise to the size of the world's population which RMP is measured again.
  • Which IMO, is why DMP numbers, unsurprisingly are CLEARLY favored by the defense, according to my reading of this filing. Why wouldn't they want to tout the DMP number? Even the world's largest relevant searchable databases are going to pale in comparison to the world population.
  • This produces a DMP number that makes it look like it's EXTREMELY LIKELY that BKs DNA could have been a coincidental match. And Barlow is perfectly fine in inviting people to apply it to and compare it to RMP (via a undefined partial/degraded inclusive 'standard STR' no less). TOTALLY DIFFERENT MATH. Totally different inputs. Totally different measurements. from my notes: "can't believe im reading this". JMO
  • Do we see now why the DMP and RMP comparisons are kind of disingenuous? IMO
  • Prosecutors wuld need to spend an entire day explaining to the jury why these things aren't the same and why that DMP number is so coincidental match friendly and extremely misleading IMO
  • And with all that said. I'll point folks to my first few notes and point out her seemingly purposeful conflation of SNP and IGG with CODIS and a 'Standard STR' (which she frames with partial degraded profile resulting in multiple matches)

It was kind of exhausting reading this thing, to be honest. Especially when you consider that the IGG are completely negated by the final CODIS match ( which was not made with a partial or degraded profile which makes Barlow's argument especially weird) IMO.

Also, while writing this it dawned on me that this comparison of DMP and RMP fits directly within the prosecutor's fallacy. It''s just that the defense wants to produce that dramatically lower (and arguably more understandable and attainable) number. And they do this by conflating IGG/SNP with CODIS and examples of mishaps using degraded STR. And then by getting to pick and choose the database to get whatever number they need (the more qualifying a database is the smaller the pool) while standardizing STR as a catch all of degraded/partial/whatever. JMO

Edit: This filing follows the trend that a lot of us on Websleuths have been noticing for the last year and a half.The defense is REPEATEDLY trying to confuse/conflate/associate the IGG with the local profile pulled by the local lab prior to the IGG. IMO

All of it is MOO.
 
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  • #307
Blum's assertions contradict both prosecution and defense statements in pre,-trial motions re Protective Order for the IGG. His assertions are also in direct conflict with the PCA. Even the defense states it was the Idaho State lab that extracted the DNA and then developed the str profile from the single source male profile.

IMO Blum can't be relied upon as a factual source. In this instance he happens to be peddling misinformation, unless you want to believe him over the actual court filings?


P2 Arrest Affidavit, 29th Dec 2022

"..entered this bedroom, I could see two females in the single bed in the room. Both Goncalves and Mogen were deceased with visible stab wounds. I also later noticed what
appeared to be a tan leather knife sheath laying on the bed next to Mogen's right side (when viewed from the door). The sheath was later processed and had "Ka-Bar" 'USMC" and the United States Marine Corps eagle globe and anchor insignia stamped on the outside of it. The Idaho state lab later located a single source of male DNA (suspect Profile) left on the button snap of the knife sheath."
(my emphasis).


P2 Motion For Protective Order, 16th June 2023.

"BACKGROUND
On November 13, 2022, law enforcement found the bodies of Madison Mogen, Kaylee Goncalves, Xana Kemodle, and Ethan Chapin at 1122 King Road in Moscow, Idaho.
All four victims died from apparent knife wounds. Law enforcement found a Ka-Bar knife sheath on the bed next to the bodies of Madison and Kaylee. The sheath was face down and partially under both Madison’s body and the comforter on the bed. Law enforcement seized
the Ka-Bar knife sheath pursuant
to search warrant. The Idaho State Police Lab in Meridian, Idaho, located DNA on the Ka-Bar knife sheath. The ISP laboratory determined the DNA came from single source and that the source was male."

(my emphasis).


P2 Defense Objection to Protective Order, 22nd June 2023.

"BACKGROUND
On November 13, 2022, law enforcement, responding to 911 call found Madison Mogen, Kaylee Goncalves, Xana Kenodle, and Ethan Chapin deceased. Law enforcement later found Ka-Bar knife sheath placed next to Ms. Mogen on her bed. The sheath was placed
button side down and partially under Ms. Mogen and the comforter. On November 20, 2022, the ldaho State Police Lab in Meridian, Idaho located DNA on the button of the sheath and
performed STR analysis"

(my emphasis)
Oh Snap! (Pun intended......)
 
  • #308
Last comment about that filing and I'm done LOL

The analogy between the Birthday problem ( a cool stats party trick with 1 in 365 possibilities ) and any kind of DNA let alone a full profile (which took hundreds of years for scientists to fully crack) had me rolling around in my chair laughing.
 
  • #309
So I want to preface this by saying, re:the prosecutors fallacy, though I like to repeat that 1 in 5 quintillion number as damning evidence against BK. I don't think that Prosecutors need it. Their case is just as strong without it. It's about the confluence of evidence for me. Dismissing all of it (or most of it) as coincidences, misunderstandings, or a frame job is illogical. And I think the jury will ultimately find that to be a unreasonable conclusion.

So I read Barlow's (a defense hired expert, from my understanding) filling this morning and took notes. I'm a crappy note taker so here's only the first half. I'll finish turning the other half into real worlds later.

Disclaimer : this is my opinion. I'm not an expert. I'm not even close to one. Do not claim to be one. I'm not going to disagree with any of the science because I can't. I read this in a vacuum, as a layman, with no Google.

This is my interpretation of things that I read and noticed...ALL JMO!!!!
  • IMO Barlow uses the term "Standard STR" and never defines what "Standard STR" is. This immediately set off my spidey senses and I knew she was going for a broad unreliability argument. Lumping together partial and complete.
  • But I was wrong. She doesn't even make an attempt to mention what a complete profile is. It's almost like she acts like it doesn't exist. MOO
  • The furthest she goes is to say that STR profiles are designed to produce a comprehensive set of markers. But never tells us what the most comprehensive set of markers looks like and means in relation to her argument. JMO
  • In my reading and opinion she is more than happy though to bundle "degraded" or "partial" STR profiles under "Standard STR". Or at least heavily implies it and makes no attempts to qualify those against 'Standard STR'. Just leaves it up to the imagination. JMO
  • She goes on to talk about how the degraded and partial STR profiles resulted in multiple mis-matches in CODIS.
  • Of course she mentions that those darn degraded and partial profiles were also extracted from mixed blood. Just like in BKs case.
  • It's really too bad she doesn't go into any examples of a FULL profile (not my characterization) being extracted and put into a database like CODIS...........
  • Luckily we don't need her to answer that question. The Moscow police did.....They've been pretty clear about the profile that they have. It matched BKs. And they've never classified it as "partial" nor "degraded".
  • I'm going to assume that the defense has the DNA evidence and could have talked more explicitly about BKs extracted profile and it's hit in CODIS? Wonder Barlow didn't do that....it makes the DMP stuff read like 'pounding the table' IMO
  • Instead...I noticed multiple times while reading that I found myself trying to figure out if she was still talking about SNP and IGG or if she was talking about STR and CODIS. Like with her use of 'Standard STR', a distinction (via a direct comparison) is rarely made. This is my opinion and interpretation of what I read.
  • The filing is about 80% about IGG and SNP and Familial DB by my reading. STR gets mentioned in all of it's worst case scenarios but never to the level of what Moscow PD imply/claim they ave.
  • I'm suspecting that if Barlow did directly address the actual profile pulled from the local lab....this entire document would be moot. But then the ' the ends are just as unreliable as the means ' argument wouldn't work. JMO
I'll get together the other notes and post a part 2.

Continuing on what I’m interpreting as a “The Ends Are Just As Unreliable As The Means” argument.

From this document

And my original post
Note: i do not question the science. Do not try and comment on the science. Or contradict the science. Everything is in the paper. As a layman I am reading this with very little prior knkowledge. No Googl'ing of any kind. All of my questions and observations come directly from my understanding of Barlow's argument on it's face.

Last we left off Barlow was talking about the possibility that IGG leads to the wrong suspect and implying that 'Standard STR' itself isn't reliable enough to kill doubts with the IGG. She does this using DMP and RMP. Not only is that weak in IMO . I think it’s outright misleading. (if not outright misleading). Anyone who has an English dictionary and took a basic level stats course can see it. JMO

Again, I am not an expert of any kind and am not making any scientific assertions....JMO
  • I'm reading her words and I can see that DMP and RMP are REALLY different and shouldn't be compared. But she repeatedly compares them, and even equates and conflates them, like she did with SNP and STR, and CODIS and IGG, and Partial/Degraded profiles to non-partial/degraded profiles. I'm noticing a trend. MOO
  • How do they read different? IMO....as I read Barlow's own words (im talking about specifically in this document, i claim no knowledge beforehand).
    • DMP
      • barlow's use: IGG in relation to SNP
      • measures: likeliness of coincidental match
      • sample size: totally depends on the database
    • RMP
      • barlow's use: CODIS in relation to STR
      • measures: rarity aka unlikeliness
      • sample size: PLANET EARTH
        • 7 or 8 billion?
  • Right off the bat, IMO, the false equivalency of STR and SNP and IGG and CODIS should standout to you. Which further drives home what I was saying in my intial post about the conflation. This is why Barlow never tells us what 'Standard STR' is in my opinion and sticks to Moscow PDs probability insted of addressing the DNA evidence she likely has in her possession.
  • If its not clear yet DMP and RMP are going to result in polar opposite measurements (negative vs a positive) with WILDLY different probabilities. JMO
  • Which IMO, becomes a gigantic problem when DMP is going to always produce a fairly small is 1 in X likely hood of coincidental match against a database that will never rise to the size of the world's population which RMP is measured again.
  • Which IMO, is why DMP numbers, unsurprisingly are CLEARLY favored by the defense, according to my reading of this filing. Why wouldn't they want to tout the DMP number? Even the world's largest relevant searchable databases are going to pale in comparison to the world population.
  • This produces a DMP number that makes it look like it's EXTREMELY LIKELY that BKs DNA could have been a coincidental match. And Barlow is perfectly fine in inviting people to apply it to and compare it to RMP (via a undefined partial/degraded inclusive 'standard STR' no less). TOTALLY DIFFERENT MATH. Totally different inputs. Totally different measurements. from my notes: "can't believe im reading this". JMO
  • Do we see now why the DMP and RMP comparisons are kind of disingenuous? IMO
  • Prosecutors wuld need to spend an entire day explaining to the jury why these things aren't the same and why that DMP number is so coincidental match friendly and extremely misleading IMO
  • And with all that said. I'll point folks to my first few notes and point out her seemingly purposeful conflation of SNP and IGG with CODIS and a 'Standard STR' (which she frames with partial degraded profile resulting in multiple matches)

It was kind of exhausting reading this thing, to be honest. Especially when you consider that the IGG are completely negated by the final CODIS match ( which was not made with a partial or degraded profile which makes Barlow's argument especially weird) IMO.

Also, while writing this it dawned on me that this comparison of DMP and RMP fits directly within the prosecutor's fallacy. It''s just that the defense wants to produce that dramatically lower (and arguably more understandable and attainable) number. And they do this by conflating IGG/SNP with CODIS and examples of mishaps using degraded STR. And then by getting to pick and choose the database to get whatever number they need (the more qualifying a database is the smaller the pool) while standardizing STR as a catch all of degraded/partial/whatever. JMO

Edit: This filing follows the trend that a lot of us on Websleuths have been noticing for the last year and a half.The defense is REPEATEDLY trying to confuse/conflate/associate the IGG with the local profile pulled by the local lab prior to the IGG. IMO

All of it is MOO.

DNA word salad, or any word salad from a so-called expert, should be illegal.

A trial for four murdered college students should not be the place for word games.

Why is anything being stated about degraded/partial/etc. profiles at all? The DNA found at the crime scene on the sheath was none of those things.

Conflating to deliberately confuse should be illegal.

Maybe Barlow doesn’t understand DNA after all? She sure doesn’t know how to write clearly about it.

But I guess that’s the point?

IMO
 
  • #310
<modsnip - quoted post, response removed>

Still occasionally pondering what bovine dna embedded in a leather knife sheathe Moo has to do with a full profile of BK's DNA being on the snap. Moo
 
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  • #311
Continuing on what I’m interpreting as a “The Ends Are Just As Unreliable As The Means” argument.

From this document

And my original post
Note: i do not question the science. Do not try and comment on the science. Or contradict the science. Everything is in the paper. As a layman I am reading this with very little prior knkowledge. No Googl'ing of any kind. All of my questions and observations come directly from my understanding of Barlow's argument on it's face.

Last we left off Barlow was talking about the possibility that IGG leads to the wrong suspect and implying that 'Standard STR' itself isn't reliable enough to kill doubts with the IGG. She does this using DMP and RMP. Not only is that weak in IMO . I think it’s outright misleading. (if not outright misleading). Anyone who has an English dictionary and took a basic level stats course can see it. JMO

Again, I am not an expert of any kind and am not making any scientific assertions....JMO
  • I'm reading her words and I can see that DMP and RMP are REALLY different and shouldn't be compared. But she repeatedly compares them, and even equates and conflates them, like she did with SNP and STR, and CODIS and IGG, and Partial/Degraded profiles to non-partial/degraded profiles. I'm noticing a trend. MOO
  • How do they read different? IMO....as I read Barlow's own words (im talking about specifically in this document, i claim no knowledge beforehand).
    • DMP
      • barlow's use: IGG in relation to SNP
      • measures: likeliness of coincidental match
      • sample size: totally depends on the database
    • RMP
      • barlow's use: CODIS in relation to STR
      • measures: rarity aka unlikeliness
      • sample size: PLANET EARTH
        • 7 or 8 billion?
  • Right off the bat, IMO, the false equivalency of STR and SNP and IGG and CODIS should standout to you. Which further drives home what I was saying in my intial post about the conflation. This is why Barlow never tells us what 'Standard STR' is in my opinion and sticks to Moscow PDs probability insted of addressing the DNA evidence she likely has in her possession.
  • If its not clear yet DMP and RMP are going to result in polar opposite measurements (negative vs a positive) with WILDLY different probabilities. JMO
  • Which IMO, becomes a gigantic problem when DMP is going to always produce a fairly small is 1 in X likely hood of coincidental match against a database that will never rise to the size of the world's population which RMP is measured again.
  • Which IMO, is why DMP numbers, unsurprisingly are CLEARLY favored by the defense, according to my reading of this filing. Why wouldn't they want to tout the DMP number? Even the world's largest relevant searchable databases are going to pale in comparison to the world population.
  • This produces a DMP number that makes it look like it's EXTREMELY LIKELY that BKs DNA could have been a coincidental match. And Barlow is perfectly fine in inviting people to apply it to and compare it to RMP (via a undefined partial/degraded inclusive 'standard STR' no less). TOTALLY DIFFERENT MATH. Totally different inputs. Totally different measurements. from my notes: "can't believe im reading this". JMO
  • Do we see now why the DMP and RMP comparisons are kind of disingenuous? IMO
  • Prosecutors wuld need to spend an entire day explaining to the jury why these things aren't the same and why that DMP number is so coincidental match friendly and extremely misleading IMO
  • And with all that said. I'll point folks to my first few notes and point out her seemingly purposeful conflation of SNP and IGG with CODIS and a 'Standard STR' (which she frames with partial degraded profile resulting in multiple matches)

It was kind of exhausting reading this thing, to be honest. Especially when you consider that the IGG are completely negated by the final CODIS match ( which was not made with a partial or degraded profile which makes Barlow's argument especially weird) IMO.

Also, while writing this it dawned on me that this comparison of DMP and RMP fits directly within the prosecutor's fallacy. It''s just that the defense wants to produce that dramatically lower (and arguably more understandable and attainable) number. And they do this by conflating IGG/SNP with CODIS and examples of mishaps using degraded STR. And then by getting to pick and choose the database to get whatever number they need (the more qualifying a database is the smaller the pool) while standardizing STR as a catch all of degraded/partial/whatever. JMO

Edit: This filing follows the trend that a lot of us on Websleuths have been noticing for the last year and a half.The defense is REPEATEDLY trying to confuse/conflate/associate the IGG with the local profile pulled by the local lab prior to the IGG. IMO

All of it is MOO.
Amazing work!
 
  • #312
Continuing on what I’m interpreting as a “The Ends Are Just As Unreliable As The Means” argument.

From this document

And my original post
Note: i do not question the science. Do not try and comment on the science. Or contradict the science. Everything is in the paper. As a layman I am reading this with very little prior knkowledge. No Googl'ing of any kind. All of my questions and observations come directly from my understanding of Barlow's argument on it's face.

Last we left off Barlow was talking about the possibility that IGG leads to the wrong suspect and implying that 'Standard STR' itself isn't reliable enough to kill doubts with the IGG. She does this using DMP and RMP. Not only is that weak in IMO . I think it’s outright misleading. (if not outright misleading). Anyone who has an English dictionary and took a basic level stats course can see it. JMO

Again, I am not an expert of any kind and am not making any scientific assertions....JMO
  • I'm reading her words and I can see that DMP and RMP are REALLY different and shouldn't be compared. But she repeatedly compares them, and even equates and conflates them, like she did with SNP and STR, and CODIS and IGG, and Partial/Degraded profiles to non-partial/degraded profiles. I'm noticing a trend. MOO
  • How do they read different? IMO....as I read Barlow's own words (im talking about specifically in this document, i claim no knowledge beforehand).
    • DMP
      • barlow's use: IGG in relation to SNP
      • measures: likeliness of coincidental match
      • sample size: totally depends on the database
    • RMP
      • barlow's use: CODIS in relation to STR
      • measures: rarity aka unlikeliness
      • sample size: PLANET EARTH
        • 7 or 8 billion?
  • Right off the bat, IMO, the false equivalency of STR and SNP and IGG and CODIS should standout to you. Which further drives home what I was saying in my intial post about the conflation. This is why Barlow never tells us what 'Standard STR' is in my opinion and sticks to Moscow PDs probability insted of addressing the DNA evidence she likely has in her possession.
  • If its not clear yet DMP and RMP are going to result in polar opposite measurements (negative vs a positive) with WILDLY different probabilities. JMO
  • Which IMO, becomes a gigantic problem when DMP is going to always produce a fairly small is 1 in X likely hood of coincidental match against a database that will never rise to the size of the world's population which RMP is measured again.
  • Which IMO, is why DMP numbers, unsurprisingly are CLEARLY favored by the defense, according to my reading of this filing. Why wouldn't they want to tout the DMP number? Even the world's largest relevant searchable databases are going to pale in comparison to the world population.
  • This produces a DMP number that makes it look like it's EXTREMELY LIKELY that BKs DNA could have been a coincidental match. And Barlow is perfectly fine in inviting people to apply it to and compare it to RMP (via a undefined partial/degraded inclusive 'standard STR' no less). TOTALLY DIFFERENT MATH. Totally different inputs. Totally different measurements. from my notes: "can't believe im reading this". JMO
  • Do we see now why the DMP and RMP comparisons are kind of disingenuous? IMO
  • Prosecutors wuld need to spend an entire day explaining to the jury why these things aren't the same and why that DMP number is so coincidental match friendly and extremely misleading IMO
  • And with all that said. I'll point folks to my first few notes and point out her seemingly purposeful conflation of SNP and IGG with CODIS and a 'Standard STR' (which she frames with partial degraded profile resulting in multiple matches)

It was kind of exhausting reading this thing, to be honest. Especially when you consider that the IGG are completely negated by the final CODIS match ( which was not made with a partial or degraded profile which makes Barlow's argument especially weird) IMO.

Also, while writing this it dawned on me that this comparison of DMP and RMP fits directly within the prosecutor's fallacy. It''s just that the defense wants to produce that dramatically lower (and arguably more understandable and attainable) number. And they do this by conflating IGG/SNP with CODIS and examples of mishaps using degraded STR. And then by getting to pick and choose the database to get whatever number they need (the more qualifying a database is the smaller the pool) while standardizing STR as a catch all of degraded/partial/whatever. JMO

Edit: This filing follows the trend that a lot of us on Websleuths have been noticing for the last year and a half.The defense is REPEATEDLY trying to confuse/conflate/associate the IGG with the local profile pulled by the local lab prior to the IGG. IMO

All of it is MOO.
This is a really well considered post. Thankyou! I know the Barlow affidavit through prior encounters in the threads! It's definitely not an easy read and poorly structured imo.

I agree there appears to be a theme of conflate/ confuse the local male single source DNA profile ( STR) and the IGG SNP profile (developed by Othram). In the affidavit, Barlow also throws the x2 unknown male DNA found in the house into the mix. As an aside she appears to suggest/imply those unknown profiles are partial and ambiguous. Moo

The affidavit was in support of the MTC x3 hearing of August 2023, but was filed in late June of that year, IIRC . I think at time of writing Barlow must have been unaware that the x2 unknown DNA profiles hadn't met the eligibility threshold for CODIS upload (per Bill Thompson at Aug 2023 hearing).. Moo
 
  • #313
I actually saw my doppelganger once. I highly doubt that she shares the same medical conditions that I have.
Or drives the same car as you either.
 
  • #314
After reaching that statistical rarity, someone should have thought: maybe we should check our method/database. JMO

The expert witnesses testified how the IGG would relate back to the statistical analysis of the STR and the STR match itself.
jmo

I am waiting for the details of the actual sample tested and how it was analyzed.
Would like to hear what the D expert has to say (unlikely in this secret case).
Just the fact it was reported that way makes me want to see more.
jmo
So I want to preface this by saying, re:the prosecutors fallacy, though I like to repeat that 1 in 5 quintillion number as damning evidence against BK. I don't think that Prosecutors need it. Their case is just as strong without it. It's about the confluence of evidence for me. Dismissing all of it (or most of it) as coincidences, misunderstandings, or a frame job is illogical. And I think the jury will ultimately find that to be a unreasonable conclusion.

So I read Barlow's (a defense hired expert, from my understanding) filling this morning and took notes. I'm a crappy note taker so here's only the first half. I'll finish turning the other half into real worlds later.

Disclaimer : this is my opinion. I'm not an expert. I'm not even close to one. Do not claim to be one. I'm not going to disagree with any of the science because I can't. I read this in a vacuum, as a layman, with no Google.

This is my interpretation of things that I read and noticed...ALL JMO!!!!
  • IMO Barlow uses the term "Standard STR" and never defines what "Standard STR" is. This immediately set off my spidey senses and I knew she was going for a broad unreliability argument. Lumping together partial and complete.
  • But I was wrong. She doesn't even make an attempt to mention what a complete profile is. It's almost like she acts like it doesn't exist. MOO
  • The furthest she goes is to say that STR profiles are designed to produce a comprehensive set of markers. But never tells us what the most comprehensive set of markers looks like and means in relation to her argument. JMO
  • In my reading and opinion she is more than happy though to bundle "degraded" or "partial" STR profiles under "Standard STR". Or at least heavily implies it and makes no attempts to qualify those against 'Standard STR'. Just leaves it up to the imagination. JMO
  • She goes on to talk about how the degraded and partial STR profiles resulted in multiple mis-matches in CODIS.
  • Of course she mentions that those darn degraded and partial profiles were also extracted from mixed blood. Just like in BKs case.
  • It's really too bad she doesn't go into any examples of a FULL profile (not my characterization) being extracted and put into a database like CODIS...........
  • Luckily we don't need her to answer that question. The Moscow police did.....They've been pretty clear about the profile that they have. It matched BKs. And they've never classified it as "partial" nor "degraded".
  • I'm going to assume that the defense has the DNA evidence and could have talked more explicitly about BKs extracted profile and it's hit in CODIS? Wonder Barlow didn't do that....it makes the DMP stuff read like 'pounding the table' IMO
  • Instead...I noticed multiple times while reading that I found myself trying to figure out if she was still talking about SNP and IGG or if she was talking about STR and CODIS. Like with her use of 'Standard STR', a distinction (via a direct comparison) is rarely made. This is my opinion and interpretation of what I read.
  • The filing is about 80% about IGG and SNP and Familial DB by my reading. STR gets mentioned in all of it's worst case scenarios but never to the level of what Moscow PD imply/claim they ave.
  • I'm suspecting that if Barlow did directly address the actual profile pulled from the local lab....this entire document would be moot. But then the ' the ends are just as unreliable as the means ' argument wouldn't work. JMO
I'll get together the other notes and post a part 2.

amazing work here!

i think i will need to read it again over morning coffee to fully get it.
 
  • #315
So I want to preface this by saying, re:the prosecutors fallacy, though I like to repeat that 1 in 5 quintillion number as damning evidence against BK. I don't think that Prosecutors need it. Their case is just as strong without it. It's about the confluence of evidence for me. Dismissing all of it (or most of it) as coincidences, misunderstandings, or a frame job is illogical. And I think the jury will ultimately find that to be a unreasonable conclusion.

So I read Barlow's (a defense hired expert, from my understanding) filling this morning and took notes. I'm a crappy note taker so here's only the first half. I'll finish turning the other half into real worlds later.

Disclaimer : this is my opinion. I'm not an expert. I'm not even close to one. Do not claim to be one. I'm not going to disagree with any of the science because I can't. I read this in a vacuum, as a layman, with no Google.

This is my interpretation of things that I read and noticed...ALL JMO!!!!
  • IMO Barlow uses the term "Standard STR" and never defines what "Standard STR" is. This immediately set off my spidey senses and I knew she was going for a broad unreliability argument. Lumping together partial and complete.
  • But I was wrong. She doesn't even make an attempt to mention what a complete profile is. It's almost like she acts like it doesn't exist. MOO
  • The furthest she goes is to say that STR profiles are designed to produce a comprehensive set of markers. But never tells us what the most comprehensive set of markers looks like and means in relation to her argument. JMO
  • In my reading and opinion she is more than happy though to bundle "degraded" or "partial" STR profiles under "Standard STR". Or at least heavily implies it and makes no attempts to qualify those against 'Standard STR'. Just leaves it up to the imagination. JMO
  • She goes on to talk about how the degraded and partial STR profiles resulted in multiple mis-matches in CODIS.
  • Of course she mentions that those darn degraded and partial profiles were also extracted from mixed blood. Just like in BKs case.
  • It's really too bad she doesn't go into any examples of a FULL profile (not my characterization) being extracted and put into a database like CODIS...........
  • Luckily we don't need her to answer that question. The Moscow police did.....They've been pretty clear about the profile that they have. It matched BKs. And they've never classified it as "partial" nor "degraded".
  • I'm going to assume that the defense has the DNA evidence and could have talked more explicitly about BKs extracted profile and it's hit in CODIS? Wonder Barlow didn't do that....it makes the DMP stuff read like 'pounding the table' IMO
  • Instead...I noticed multiple times while reading that I found myself trying to figure out if she was still talking about SNP and IGG or if she was talking about STR and CODIS. Like with her use of 'Standard STR', a distinction (via a direct comparison) is rarely made. This is my opinion and interpretation of what I read.
  • The filing is about 80% about IGG and SNP and Familial DB by my reading. STR gets mentioned in all of it's worst case scenarios but never to the level of what Moscow PD imply/claim they ave.
  • I'm suspecting that if Barlow did directly address the actual profile pulled from the local lab....this entire document would be moot. But then the ' the ends are just as unreliable as the means ' argument wouldn't work. JMO
I'll get together the other notes and post a part 2.

You put alot of time into this, thanks.
 
  • #316
All MOO

I find Bicka Barlow's statement about the sheath sample to be VERY telling (and she was obviously referring to the sample found on the sheath in this case, anyone arguing otherwise is being disingenuous). When a DNA profile is "partial", it means the lab runs it through a computer program which fills out the rest of the profile based on statistics. When a DNA profile is "ambiguous", it means that it's open to having more than one interpretation. So the main questions that need to be answered about the sheath DNA sample are:

How "partial" was this profile? How much of a legitimate single-source DNA profile was found on that sheath? How much of the profile needed to be filled in by the computer? 10%? 50%? 90%? And what inputs did the computer program use while filling out the rest of the profile?

Was the DNA profile "ambiguous¹" before or after the computer program filled in the rest of the partial profile, or both? Since the profile is open to having more than one interpretation, what were the other possible interpretations? What made them go with their chosen interpretation of the profile? Did they choose their interpretation before or after BK became a suspect/was arrested?

How many genetic markers was the DNA sample pulled from the sheath a match to BK? Because if a relatively low number of markers were used, thousands (or potentially millions) of people would also be a "match".

Has an independent expert been given access to the sheath, the original swab used to pull the DNA from the sheath, the original partial profile before it was entered into the computer program, and all of the lab's work along the way? If not, why not? If it's a legitimate match to BK, they should have no problem handing everything over and allowing an independent expert double check their work.... but until that happens, it's a red flag for me.


By the way, that's not me saying BK is innocent. But I'm also not ready to say he's guilty in my opinion.


All opinion
 
  • #317
The biggest, most ongoing problem on these threads has been the conflation of the IGG and the match of the dna on the sheath to BK. Two completely different things. The defense intends to challenge the constitutionality of using IGG in an investigation, but they have never, to our knowledge, contested that the dna on the sheath is a match to BK. He is a match.
JMO
 
  • #318
<modsnip - quoted post, response removed>

Still occasionally pondering what bovine dna embedded in a leather knife sheathe Moo has to do with a full profile of BK's DNA being on the snap. Moo
Exactly! It's irrelevant. and not the same as "Touch DNA" because cows don't murder.
 
  • #319
AJ told the court that the P facilitated the testing of additional trace per the D request.

3:12
jmo
Good find--so if the defense has requested additional testing the prosecution has facilitated that.

work product​

Work product is material prepared in anticipation of litigation . Generally, work product is privileged, meaning it is exempt from discovery . However, there are exceptions. Work product is divided into two categories: ordinary and opinion.

Ordinary work product is the result of gathering basic facts or conducting interviews with witnesses , and is discoverable if there is a showing of substantial need, like a witness that becomes unavailable.

Opinion work product is the record of an attorney’s mental impressions, ideas or strategies, and is almost never subject to discovery.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj2rZWb24GLAxV6FVkFHVFuEisQFnoECBoQAw&url=https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/work_product#:~:text=Work%20product%20is%20material%20prepared,two%20categories%3A%20ordinary%20and%20opinion.&usg=AOvVaw2PU13rAxkWUH9SuplzhuOW&opi=89978449

(g) Prosecution Information Not Subject to Disclosure.

(1) Work Product. Disclosure must not be required of:

(A) legal research or of records,
(B) correspondence, or
(C) reports or memoranda to the extent that they contain the opinions, theories or conclusions of the prosecuting attorney or members of the prosecuting attorney's legal staff.

(2) Informants. Disclosure must not be required of an informant's identity unless the informant is to be produced as a witness at a hearing or trial, subject to any protective order under subsection (l) of this rule or a disclosure order under subsection (b)(6) of this rule

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwit9c2O24GLAxWcFFkFHaQdNAMQFnoECAsQAQ&url=https://isc.idaho.gov/icr16&usg=AOvVaw1hP5u11pI4ds817oq8yDuo&opi=89978449

DOJ policy on FGG
If a suspect is arrested and charged with a criminal offense after an FGG profile has been entered into one or more DTC services, the investigative agency shall make a prompt formal request that all FGG profiles and associated account information and data held by any such service be removed from its records and provided directly to the investigative agency.27 The investigative agency shall document its request and compliance by the DTC service(s). All FGG profiles, account information, and data shall be retained by the investigative agency for potential use during prosecution and subsequent judicial proceedings.

IGG is not a tip
Evidence from a crime scene being tested is not a tip
The results of a test on evidence from a crime scene - not a tip.
Bolded by me--The evidence from the crime scene, the DNA, and the results of tests on the evidence from the crime scene, the genetic profiles and the match to BK, have nothing to do with this fight over discovery. The defense has always had that. IGG is not evidence. It's an investigative technique that uses the evidence to lead you to a suspect. The DNA test that matches (or doesn't) that suspect to the DNA from the crime scene is the evidence.
The fbi, an active participant in the investigation of this case, is not a tipster.
The lab testing evidence from a crime scene and reporting results is not a confidential informant.
The tip/fbi did it (O did it too) and neither will hand it over/confidential informant/investigative tool/work product excuses are the P trying to avoid discovery.

ALL JMO
My main point was that it should be clear that it was the FBI holding the IGG, not the local prosecution. I think it's important to be clear on that because every time this is brought up, it paints the local prosecution as being shady. They didn't turn it over because they didn't have it. The FBI was resisting turning the information over because they said it didn't fall under discovery.

But to your points--this is really all going to be up to the court. Idaho Criminal Rule says that the supervision of discovery is a discretionary power of the trial court. Judge Judge addresses this in his Order Addressing IGG DNA and Order For In Camera Review in October 2023.


Disclosure of information gathered from an IGG investigation is an issue of first impression in Idaho. It hasn't been litigated there yet. Judge Judge looked to other courts when he was writing this order.

"The issue of disclosure of information gathered from an IGG investigation is an issue of first impression in Idaho...while there is no precedent in Idaho, what limited cases are available from other jurisdictions are worth discussing."

The judge cited In the Matter of: Michael Green, where Green argued he was entitled to genetic genealogy information, saying it was necessary to ascertain the details of what, when, where and how the investigation into him occurred, the identity of the other possible matches so they could be interviewed and a possible Fourth Amendment violation.

The trial court held:

"the prosecution was not obligated to discover to Green the requested match Detail Reports, long-form candidate Match Reports, family tree information, lists of people identified, or any other information from its Forensic Genetic Genealogy investigation."

"The evidence that is material to Green's guilt or innocence is the testing that followed the FGG investigation, which directly compared a fresh swab of Green's DNA with the DNA profile collected from the victim's nightgown. It is only this evidence that the People intend to present at trial. The People are not obligated to provide its preliminary search of the genealogy databases for possible matches, which is investigatory in nature and is not exculpatory or material to Green's defense...A mere possibility that the information might help the defense does not establish that this information is material."


So there is case law that supports the contention that the IGG work product is not subject to discovery because it's not exculpatory or material to the preparation of the defense. There is case law that says what's material and discoverable is the DNA test for the match following the IGG, but not the IGG.

(Judge Judge cites two additional cases that don't directly address IGG and discovery--his point is that, based on the rulings, the defendants likely had some access to the IGG information. But no case law regarding IGG and discovery are contained there.)

Ultimately, Judge Judge agreed to meet in camera with the prosecution to review the materials and decide what was material to BK's defense and should be released to him under discovery. I believe this happened and the materials deemed to fall under discovery have been turned over. The FBI was always going to fight turning over what they consider an investigative tool.

Also in that document--the prosecution turned over the SNP from the very beginning. That was all that was needed for the defense to do their own IGG. What they were really looking for was the date the FBI gave the name to the prosecution.

JMO
 
  • #320
Good find--so if the defense has requested additional testing the prosecution has facilitated that.

Bolded by me--The evidence from the crime scene, the DNA, and the results of tests on the evidence from the crime scene, the genetic profiles and the match to BK, have nothing to do with this fight over discovery. The defense has always had that. IGG is not evidence. It's an investigative technique that uses the evidence to lead you to a suspect. The DNA test that matches (or doesn't) that suspect to the DNA from the crime scene is the evidence.

My main point was that it should be clear that it was the FBI holding the IGG, not the local prosecution. I think it's important to be clear on that because every time this is brought up, it paints the local prosecution as being shady. They didn't turn it over because they didn't have it. The FBI was resisting turning the information over because they said it didn't fall under discovery.

But to your points--this is really all going to be up to the court. Idaho Criminal Rule says that the supervision of discovery is a discretionary power of the trial court. Judge Judge addresses this in his Order Addressing IGG DNA and Order For In Camera Review in October 2023.


Disclosure of information gathered from an IGG investigation is an issue of first impression in Idaho. It hasn't been litigated there yet. Judge Judge looked to other courts when he was writing this order.

"The issue of disclosure of information gathered from an IGG investigation is an issue of first impression in Idaho...while there is no precedent in Idaho, what limited cases are available from other jurisdictions are worth discussing."

The judge cited In the Matter of: Michael Green, where Green argued he was entitled to genetic genealogy information, saying it was necessary to ascertain the details of what, when, where and how the investigation into him occurred, the identity of the other possible matches so they could be interviewed and a possible Fourth Amendment violation.

The trial court held:

"the prosecution was not obligated to discover to Green the requested match Detail Reports, long-form candidate Match Reports, family tree information, lists of people identified, or any other information from its Forensic Genetic Genealogy investigation."

"The evidence that is material to Green's guilt or innocence is the testing that followed the FGG investigation, which directly compared a fresh swab of Green's DNA with the DNA profile collected from the victim's nightgown. It is only this evidence that the People intend to present at trial. The People are not obligated to provide its preliminary search of the genealogy databases for possible matches, which is investigatory in nature and is not exculpatory or material to Green's defense...A mere possibility that the information might help the defense does not establish that this information is material."


So there is case law that supports the contention that the IGG work product is not subject to discovery because it's not exculpatory or material to the preparation of the defense. There is case law that says what's material and discoverable is the DNA test for the match following the IGG, but not the IGG.

(Judge Judge cites two additional cases that don't directly address IGG and discovery--his point is that, based on the rulings, the defendants likely had some access to the IGG information. But no case law regarding IGG and discovery are contained there.)

Ultimately, Judge Judge agreed to meet in camera with the prosecution to review the materials and decide what was material to BK's defense and should be released to him under discovery. I believe this happened and the materials deemed to fall under discovery have been turned over. The FBI was always going to fight turning over what they consider an investigative tool.

Also in that document--the prosecution turned over the SNP from the very beginning. That was all that was needed for the defense to do their own IGG. What they were really looking for was the date the FBI gave the name to the prosecution.

JMO
BBM. Needs re-emphasizing.
 
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