CANADA Canada - Jack, 4 & Lilly Sullivan, 6, Vulnerable, wandered from home 10am, Gairloch Rd, Landsdowne Station, Pictou County, NS, 2 May 2025 #7

[Dreamcherry]

I have to wonder how much info could have been gleaned from the cellular data. If I remember right, the cellular coverage was sketchy in the area. This is, I believe, the reason MBM used the texting app - it gave her more reliable texting using WiFi. I assume their WiFi was stronger than their cell coverage. This is sometimes the case for me, I live rurally, and there are cell phone dead areas on my property.

As for the camera data, it would be interesting to also know the reliability of the cameras sourced by LE. On my property, I have motion activated solar cameras, with so-so reliability. I also have a motion activated wifi camera which is about 75% accurate. Sometimes it can just miss movement, not sure why.

I would love to be a fly on the wall. And observe the investigative process, piecing together the data from various cameras in the area, and the timelines. I am so hopeful this case is solved, and the elements of the case we have discussed will be made clear.

IMO

I live and work downtown in the city, and there are dead areas in both places! Cell coverage in the Maritimes is kind of trash in general, lol. I can only imagine how bad it is in their area.

 

[Twistinginthewind]

Regarding the 2 neighbors who told LE they heard a vehicle coming and going from the Martell property late that night/early morning, and 1 said they saw the headlights of a vehicle as well:

Their statements, which ended up in court documents, were not just "Tips".

They constituted eye witness testimony on an unknown driver of a vehicle driving in the dark of night on that property that night by 2 different neighbors who were there/nearby enough to hear the engine running and traveling to and fro.

Which LE considered important enough to record with the court, so they were more akin to "Leads".

There were hundreds of "Tips" that were not entered into court records AFAIK because LE must have determined they were not "Leads".

The difference in this case, though acknowledging it can be a subtlety/isn't a hard fact, is that:

Tips could have come from anyone near or far about anything which could be non specific to events in the 1 day timeframe between last sighting and disappearing.

Eye witness testimony is a lead, and coming from 2 different neighbors residing on 2 different adjacent properties on vehicle activity within 8 hours leading up to Lilly and Jack's disappearance from the Martell property is much more specific.

JMO

 

[MistyWaters]

Regarding the 2 neighbors who told LE they heard a vehicle coming and going from the Martell property late that night/early morning, and 1 said they saw the headlights of a vehicle as well:

Their statements, which ended up in court documents, were not just "Tips".

They constituted eye witness testimony on an unknown driver of a vehicle driving in the dark of night on that property that night by 2 different neighbors who were there/nearby enough to hear the engine running and traveling to and fro.

Which LE considered important enough to record with the court, so they were more akin to "Leads".

There were hundreds of "Tips" that were not entered into court records AFAIK because LE must have determined they were not "Leads".

The difference in this case, though acknowledging it can be a subtlety/isn't a hard fact, is that:

Tips could have come from anyone near or far about anything which could be non specific to events in the 1 day timeframe between last sighting and disappearing.

Eye witness testimony is a lead, and coming from 2 different neighbors residing on 2 different adjacent properties on vehicle activity within 8 hours leading up to Lilly and Jack's disappearance from the Martell property is much more specific.

JMO

Any lead originating from a tip is the result of that tip getting corroborated. This tip didn’t become a lead, at best it would’ve become a false lead,

RCMP say review of surveillance footage found no evidence of vehicle activity

 

[tlcya]

the second tip corroborates the first, regardless if video of a vehicle was found. JMO that makes it a lead. Meaning it cannot be ruled out, but may be further corroborated in future by additional evidence, but for now, no additional evidence (video) was located. IMO

https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/FN 262 (Global Justice Information Sharing Initiative, Tips and Leads Issue Paper).pdf

 

[MistyWaters]

the second tip corroborates the first, regardless if video of a vehicle was found. JMO that makes it a lead. Meaning it cannot be ruled out, but may be further corroborated in future by additional evidence, but for now, no additional evidence (video) was located. IMO

https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/analysis/FN 262 (Global Justice Information Sharing Initiative, Tips and Leads Issue Paper).pdf

What do you mean “it can’t be ruled out”? Says who? The RCMP reviewing surveillance footage, finding no evidence of vehicle activity rules out both tips. According to the documents, there’s a strong possibility the second tip arose to support the first tip.

 

[tlcya]

What do you mean “it can’t be ruled out”? Says who? The RCMP reviewing surveillance footage, finding no evidence of vehicle activity rules out both tips.

I disagree. Unless or until RCMP can say it did not happen. period. What they have said is, we found no video to support it's veracity. Those two things are not the same in my mind. If they are for you that is fine. For you. It is not necessary that either of us convince one another of anything. I continue to hope that one day we will all know with certainty what happened to the children. Until then we will all give the weight or lack thereof we feel is appropriate to each piece of information released.

 

[MistyWaters]

I disagree. Unless or until RCMP can say it did not happen. period. What they have said is, we found no video to support it's veracity. Those two things are not the same in my mind. If they are for you that is fine. For you. It is not necessary that either of us convince one another of anything. I continue to hope that one day we will all know with certainty what happened to the children. Until then we will all give the weight or lack thereof we feel is appropriate to each piece of information released.

But they are in essence saying it did not happen because upon review of surveillance footage there’s no evidence of vehicle activity. If there was no vehicle at the time, how could they have heard vehicle activity?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/lilly-jack-sullivan-missing-children-court-documents-car-vehicle-9.6943179

Witnesses describe hearing vehicle the night before N.S. children reported missing​

RCMP say review of surveillance footage found no evidence of vehicle activity​

Two people who live near Lilly and Jack Sullivan's home told police they heard a vehicle coming and going in the middle of the night, just hours before the Nova Scotia children were reported missing, court documents show.

However, RCMP confirmed Monday a "thorough review of surveillance footage" from the Gairloch Road area of Pictou County found "no evidence of any vehicle activity at that time."

"No driver has been identified, and the presence of a vehicle has not been substantiated as a key element in the investigation," RCMP communications adviser Allison Gerrard wrote in an email to CBC.

 

[Ontario Mom]

Aren’t most of them when it comes down to it?
We are the public and the opinion both

Not in my experience, no.

 

[tlcya]

Richard Allen. Delphi. Lost notes of an interview taken days after the murders inadvertently "ruled out" RA and as a result it took years for him to come back on radar, he now sits in prison for the rest of his life.

the presence of a vehicle has not been substantiated as a key element in the investigation,"

is not the same as ruled out.

JMO and yours is welcome to differ from mine. That is the beauty of this site.

 

[thor124]

According to the documents, it seems that both DM and MBM had location tracking on in Google Maps. I'm not sure exactly how coverage would affect that service, but it certainly sounds like there was a decent amount of data, because the RCMP were able to use it to corroborate what the parents said about where they went on the Wednesday and Thursday before the children disappeared

You can get a feel for the amount of location data stored by on Android phones by opening the Google Maps app, clicking on your round avatar in the upper right corner, then selecting Timeline in the menu.

This will give you a polished, filtered timeline of where you've been. Forensic analysis of the raw data may yield more detailed data.

 

[Slebby]

Yesterday, with all the talk of the 2 neighbor reports of vehicle activity, I went looking to see maps of the area to get an idea of the closeness of these homes to each other. What I came away with was a sense of despair, honestly, that, if these children were killed and dumped by a perpetrator, there is no way their bodies will ever be found. It’s just such a huge, wild area.

So today I’m pivoting to happier theories, ones in which the children are alive and well and being cared for somewhere.

Something I’ve wondered is this: when LE states they do not believe this case is criminal, I wonder if they mean criminal in any way, or what I call “criminal criminal”

“Criminal criminal” would include an abductor, pedophile, human trafficker, or some other evil person, known or unknown to the children took them for the purpose of abuse and/or murdered them. The children have come to harm in some way.

Versus - some well meaning person or persons, known or unknown to the children or MBM or DM, or either bio family, has taken them for a well meant reason (such as to keep safe from harm or liberate them from perceived difficult life circumstances) Yes, this would still be criminal.

Aside from wishing for a happier outcome, I also sometimes lean in this direction because it sometimes feels like the only option left.

I don’t personally believe they wandered away and perished. I believe the original search began soon enough, they would have been found. I also believe, had they somehow perished in the woods, with the extensive cadaver dog search, their remains would have been found.

DM and MBM and other key associates of the children passed polygraphs. Yes, polygraphs are not perfect, but let’s assume for now that in this case, the polygraphs were accurate.

What else is left to consider? Hit by a car?

IMHO

 

[Serononin]

You can get a feel for the amount of location data stored by on Android phones by opening the Google Maps app, clicking on your round avatar in the upper right corner, then selecting Timeline in the menu.

This will give you a polished, filtered timeline of where you've been. Forensic analysis of the raw data may yield more detailed data.

I just had a look at mine, and interestingly it hasn't actually recorded anything because I keep my phone in battery saving mode, which disables the Timeline feature. But I guess when it does record, the data must be pretty specific, because the documents included exact times for when MBM and DM went to each different place on May 1st

 

[Twistinginthewind]

Any lead originating from a tip is the result of that tip getting corroborated. This tip didn’t become a lead, at best it would’ve become a false lead,

RCMP say review of surveillance footage found no evidence of vehicle activity

Good point.

IMO, the 2 eye witnesses's testimonies regarding their observations of vehicle activity were a more specific tip per the close location and occurrence in the hours before the disappearance of Lilly and Jack from the Martell property that LE presumably felt carried more weight and/or decided warranted followup and recording with the court.

As opposed to, e.g., a less specific tip such as an anonymous caller saying they heard X about Y and Z which LE hypothetically did not decide to followup on or record in court documents.

IMO, although the witness testimonies were not corroborated by LE / no evidence was found based on review of footage, there is still the possibility the footage wasn't comprehensive enough of the Martell property during the hours in question to rule it out / determine with any certainty both testimonies constituted tips which would have ended up as false leads.

JMO

 

[Slebby]

You can get a feel for the amount of location data stored by on Android phones by opening the Google Maps app, clicking on your round avatar in the upper right corner, then selecting Timeline in the menu.

This will give you a polished, filtered timeline of where you've been. Forensic analysis of the raw data may yield more detailed data.

Thanks for sharing this, very interesting.
I’m sure we all checked this out on our own phones. I did. Mine happens to be turned off. I wonder if this will help me if I ever commit a crime?

IMO

 

[Warwick1991]

Richard Allen. Delphi. Lost notes of an interview taken days after the murders inadvertently "ruled out" RA and as a result it took years for him to come back on radar, he now sits in prison for the rest of his life.

the presence of a vehicle has not been substantiated as a key element in the investigation,"

is not the same as ruled out.

JMO and yours is welcome to differ from mine. That is the beauty of this site.

Since I've owned a few types of surveillance cameras, I would add that the type of camera and activation triggers vary in quality. Some cameras are always recording. Those are generally commercial grade cameras or those used by government agencies with good lenses and extended storage capacity.

Many residential cameras, though, are activated by motion. Motion detectors, however, don't always work well. Passive infrared sensors are common, but are far from perfect. They can miss things in low light, or movements that are beyond the coverage distance. Also, lenses can be obstructed by fog, moisture (rain, humidity etc) or insects, in my experience.

It is possible that there really was a vehicle, and the camera(s) in the area didn't record it. JMO

 

[thor124]

Thanks for sharing this, very interesting.
I’m sure we all checked this out on our own phones. I did. Mine happens to be turned off. I wonder if this will help me if I ever commit a crime?

I just had a look at mine, and interestingly it hasn't actually recorded anything because I keep my phone in battery saving mode, which disables the Timeline feature. But I guess when it does record, the data must be pretty specific, because the documents included exact times for when MBM and DM went to each different place on May 1st

Here's an article that discusses it:
New Maps feature shows that Google tracks your every move - Geoawesome

 

[MistyWaters]

Since I've owned a few types of surveillance cameras, I would add that the type of camera and activation triggers vary in quality. Some cameras are always recording. Those are generally commercial grade cameras or those used by government agencies with good lenses and extended storage capacity.

Many residential cameras, though, are activated by motion. Motion detectors, however, don't always work well. Passive infrared sensors are common, but are far from perfect. They can miss things in low light, or movements that are beyond the coverage distance. Also, lenses can be obstructed by fog, moisture (rain, humidity etc) or insects, in my experience.

It is possible that there really was a vehicle, and the camera(s) in the area didn't record it. JMO

True it’s possible the cameras didn’t record it but don’t you think the RCMP are smart enough to be aware of the type of device that recorded the surveillance footage that they reviewed? “NO evidence” is quite a precise statement as opposed to any ‘vehicle activity being undetermined’.

I’m curious, general question, why is the RCMPs review of surveillance footage considered to possibly have been unsatisfactory without knowing any of the details about what was reviewed?

However, RCMP confirmed Monday a "thorough review of surveillance footage" from the Gairloch Road area of Pictou County found "no evidence of any vehicle activity at that time."

 

[MistyWaters]

Here's an article that discusses it:
New Maps feature shows that Google tracks your every move - Geoawesome

The Mollie Tibbetts case comes to mind.

 

[tlcya]

I believe RCMP are smart enough to not care what we in the public know or think of their investigation. I feel strongly their focus is on the job at hand and when they give statements those statements are carefully and purposefully worded.

 

[Slebby]

I’m curious, general question, why is the RCMPs review of surveillance footage considered to possibly have been unsatisfactory without knowing any of the details about what was reviewed?

<rsbm>
Did anyone said the RCMP’s review of surveillance footage has been unsatisfactory??

What some are saying is it’s possible there was a car as reported by 2 witnesses but was not captured by any cameras. Yes, a car could have been coming and going, no, there was no footage of said movement. That is what some of us believe to be possible.

IMHO