Very long post – sorry. Please skip if these are not your thing.
The shooter shows three distinct types of behaviour* and the more time passes, the more it seems that his apparent carelessness may have been part of his approach – that he didn't care about
longer-term consequences. He cared only about getting out of NYC before being linked to the killing. Why? I don't know. But if that was his goal, he achieved it.
Behaviour 1: careful, detailed planning
Arrives 24th November, stays at a hostel knowing he can pay in cash. No deposit, fake ID, no card. Spends many days scouting and staking out the locations: familiarisation of routes, gaining use of a bike and a distinctive backpack used only on the day of the shooting. Part of this involves his checking out of the hostel and checking back in a day later, for reasons still unknown. Throughout, he is careful to hide his face from anyone who would associate him with the murder – no one at the scene of the shooting could identify him and it's likely that no one on the streets could, either. People who saw his face wouldn't associate him with the murder – linking the face with the shooting would take days of work and he'd be gone by then
Behaviour 2: showmanship
In
this post,
@caradana uses the word 'swagger' and that seems right. The choice of gun and clothing items (distinctive but and easy to track on surveillance footage as he moved between cameras), the plan to shoot someone in midtown Manhattan with several people nearby (including a terrified woman just a few yards away, who sees him and flees as the first shots are fired), a pre-shoot visit to Starbucks for water and energy bars. The decision to simply walk away from the murder scene and then switch to… a bicycle. He used public transport and a taxi. He chose a highly distinctive, unusual gun (possibly an expensive B&T VP9, possibly the newer and cheaper B&T Station Six) that needed clearing after every shot, the delays creating a significant risk for someone carrying out a public, multiple-shot assassination. Yes, it was a quiet gun but there are other quiet guns that with silencers that would have been quicker and less distinctive. He never once prioritised the obvious things in a street shooting: simplicity, speed, discretion. He chose memorability and spectacle. This was a performance.
The third aspect of his approach contrasts with the first.
Behaviour 3: doesn't care about the long-term investigation
He may have left a water bottle with DNA on it. He may have discarded his burner phone. I don't think we know for sure that the phone and water bottle were his but it's possible. (And I don't think the phone records will tell us anything useful: he will have used Signal or an equivalent if calling an accomplice or he'll have called his victim, which tells us nothing because we already know both their locations.) In full view of a camera, he carefully placed something on a garbage pile. In Central Park, he discarded the backpack, surely knowing that it and its contents would likely be found. He apparently discarded other items, too. He showed his face at the hostel in front of CCTV, quite possibly knowing he'd have to and that the footage wouldn't be linked to the murder till he was out of NYC. He moved about on public transit, Greyhound bus, taxi and bicycle knowing full well that the surveillance footage would take days to be linked to him. The police may find out where he got the gun, the bike, the phone and the backpack. They may already know. They may find out other things. He surely knows all this – DNA, fingerprints, items traced.
So: why?
This post by
@azure describes the puzzle.
Perhaps he's expecting to end his own life in his own way and not at the hands of LE. Perhaps he's safe for reasons we don't know – he lives somewhere in the world where he knows he won't be turned or is protected by the organisation he works for or with. It's even possible that the shooter's identity is significantly different from what we imagine, despite the clear face shot. DNA analysis might tell us more about that.
So it's possible (not certain, just possible) that none of the aspects of this third type of behaviour came from panic or slip-ups and that they came instead from not caring about being identified after leaving NYC. As long as got out of the city after carrying out his highly cinematic murder, he would consider the project a success.
I could be wrong – perhaps he's much less accomplished and overconfident, couldn't predict what would happen, tried his best and just messed up. Would like to hear your thoughts that explain this third type of behaviour. Unintended carelessness that he now regrets or acceptance of the investigation and what it will reveal? If the latter, why?
As I post this, recent posts suggest that Eric Adams claims LE have a name. If that's true and it turns out that it's the shooter, on American soil, perhaps that means unintentional carelessness. We'll see.
* UK spelling and punctuation throughout, I'm afraid.