4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #108

[PunishThenForgive]

I plugged into a few different programs, 5 Pieces of evidence in the Kohberger case and the odds of them all occurring and BK being innocent.

Below you can see the odds that this program assigned to each event, which was the most conservative one I used.

Notice how I didn’t mention the DNA.

1. Ownership of the same type of car.
2. Driving at a time consistent with him being the killer.
3. Powering down his phone throughout the murder window.
4. Purchasing the same model knife and sheath, which are now missing.
5. Seeking to purchase the same model knife and sheath, beginning two days following the murders.

Combining the Probabilities
To estimate the odds of innocence, we consider the likelihood that all these events occur together by chance for an innocent person. In probability theory, if events are independent, their joint probability is the product of their individual probabilities. While these events are not entirely independent (e.g., owning a knife and searching for it are related), we can use rough estimates to illustrate the cumulative effect:
Car: ~1/100 (0.01)

Driving at 4 a.m.: ~1/50 (0.02)

Phone powered down: ~1/50 (0.02)

Owning and missing knife: ~1/5,000 (0.0002)

Searching for knife post-murder: ~1/10,000 (0.0001)

If we assume approximate independence for simplicity, the joint probability is:
0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001=8×10−120.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}0.01 \times 0.02 \times 0.02 \times 0.0002 \times 0.0001 = 8 \times 10^{-12}

This translates to a 1 in 125 billion chance that an innocent person would match all these criteria by coincidence. Even if we adjust for partial dependence (e.g., knife ownership and searching being related), the combined probability remains extraordinarily low, likely on the order of 1 in millions.

Yay! You’ve got people talking about probability on here. I love it.

The following is for those of you whose eyes glaze over or stomachs churn whenever you see math, but you want to understand MassGuy’s post.

First, a quick review of some basics:

Convert a probability from fraction form to decimal form by dividing the top number (the numerator) by the bottom number (the denominator). For example, 1/4 = 1 divided by 4 = 0.25.

Convert a decimal to a percent by multiplying by 100 (that is, move the decimal point right two places) and adding the percent symbol. For example, 0.25 = 25%.

Find the probability of two or more independent events by multiplying their probabilities (written in decimal or fraction form only, not percent form). To understand why, check out this explanation in Khan Academy:

Khan Academy

www.khanacademy.org

(Pro tip: To understand math, you must have paper and pencil in hand and work the examples.)

So the probability of ALL five of MassGuy’s events happening at the same time is;

0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001 = 8×10⁻¹⁴ (in scientific notation) = 0.00000000000008 (in decimal form) = 0.000000000008% (in percent form).

That is a very low probability! (But still not as low as the probability that the DNA on the knife sheet belongs to anyone other than Bryan Kohberger).

 

[mickey2942]

I am trying to figure out the defense AT will present. Probably harp on the fact that the prosecution must present evidence that BK did the crime he is accused of, and all AT will be able to do is try to poke holes in it...I don't see the big government finding poor little BK to frame will work.

Any ideas for a viable defense for BK?

 

[Megnut]

I am trying to figure out the defense AT will present. Probably harp on the fact that the prosecution must present evidence that BK did the crime he is accused of, and all AT will be able to do is try to poke holes in it...I don't see the big government finding poor little BK to frame will work.

Any ideas for a viable defense for BK?

She hasn't got one.

As her wordy motions for suppression are summarily denied, the good judge has reminded her time and time again that she can cross examination the witnesses. He knows she knows that, but IMO it's a nudge from the judge -- it's all she's got.

If AT can leave one juror with questions after she's through asking pointless questions, and that juror equates confusion with doubt, she will have spun gold. Fool's gold.

Pure fable.

The State's closing argument will be a thing of beauty in that it will be organized, sensible, airtight. Solid gold.

JMO

 

[Justice101]

She hasn't got one.

As her wordy motions for suppression are summarily denied, the good judge has reminded her time and time again that she can cross examination the witnesses. He knows she knows that, but IMO it's a nudge from the judge -- it's all she's got.

If AT can leave one juror with questions after she's through asking pointless questions, and that juror equates confusion with doubt, she will have spun gold. Fool's gold.

Pure fable.

The State's closing argument will be a thing of beauty in that it will be organized, sensible, airtight. Solid gold.

JMO

@Megnut Brilliant post!

 

[girlhasnoname]

Yay! You’ve got people talking about probability on here. I love it.

The following is for those of you whose eyes glaze over or stomachs churn whenever you see math, but you want to understand MassGuy’s post.

First, a quick review of some basics:

Convert a probability from fraction form to decimal form by dividing the top number (the numerator) by the bottom number (the denominator). For example, 1/4 = 1 divided by 4 = 0.25.

Convert a decimal to a percent by multiplying by 100 (that is, move the decimal point right two places) and adding the percent symbol. For example, 0.25 = 25%.

Find the probability of two or more independent events by multiplying their probabilities (written in decimal or fraction form only, not percent form). To understand why, check out this explanation in Khan Academy:

Khan Academy

www.khanacademy.org

(Pro tip: To understand math, you must have paper and pencil in hand and work the examples.)

So the probability of ALL five of MassGuy’s events happening at the same time is;

0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001 = 8×10⁻¹⁴ (in scientific notation) = 0.00000000000008 (in decimal form) = 0.000000000008% (in percent form).

That is a very low probability! (But still not as low as the probability that the DNA on the knife sheet belongs to anyone other than Bryan Kohberger).

It's too early for my brain on all these maths, must consume more coffee first: LOL

 

[Sachi]

Yay! You’ve got people talking about probability on here. I love it.

The following is for those of you whose eyes glaze over or stomachs churn whenever you see math, but you want to understand MassGuy’s post.

First, a quick review of some basics:

Convert a probability from fraction form to decimal form by dividing the top number (the numerator) by the bottom number (the denominator). For example, 1/4 = 1 divided by 4 = 0.25.

Convert a decimal to a percent by multiplying by 100 (that is, move the decimal point right two places) and adding the percent symbol. For example, 0.25 = 25%.

Find the probability of two or more independent events by multiplying their probabilities (written in decimal or fraction form only, not percent form). To understand why, check out this explanation in Khan Academy:

Khan Academy

www.khanacademy.org

(Pro tip: To understand math, you must have paper and pencil in hand and work the examples.)

So the probability of ALL five of MassGuy’s events happening at the same time is;

0.01×0.02×0.02×0.0002×0.0001 = 8×10⁻¹⁴ (in scientific notation) = 0.00000000000008 (in decimal form) = 0.000000000008% (in percent form).

That is a very low probability! (But still not as low as the probability that the DNA on the knife sheet belongs to anyone other than Bryan Kohberger).

WOW, you amaze! ..Math tells the whole story , and I don't even understand what those numbers mean! It's just so many zeros behind the decimal point .. it's terrifically damning. Even more reason why AT is digging to the dark ages, efforts to distract or find misstep loophole

And of course.. MassGuy, thanks for enlightening us, it helps to clarify how this person got to where they are and just how obvious it is that there is no other suspect, the probability is just not there for that, BK used up all the zeros to infinity and beyond.

If we could put it in terms that are physical, like which leaf on a tree would that be in the woods of this many trees! For the math poets! LOL.

 

[Megnut]

WOW, you amaze! ..Math tells the whole story , and I don't even understand what those numbers mean! It's just so many zeros behind the decimal point .. it's terrifically damning. Even more reason why AT is digging to the dark ages, efforts to distract or find misstep loophole

And of course.. MassGuy, thanks for enlightening us, it helps to clarify how this person got to where they are and just how obvious it is that there is no other suspect, the probability is just not there for that, BK used up all the zeros to infinity and beyond.

If we could put it in terms that are physical, like which leaf on a tree would that be in the woods of this many trees! For the math poets! LOL.

If grains of sand
Were the SODDIs not,
BK is the only tree
Standing in the desert hot.

 

[Tricia]

Good Morning,
Can we please stay on topic? It is not the time to discuss the death penalty since he has yet to be convicted. Please discuss the case and let's wait to discuss his punishment if he is convicted.
Thanks,
Tricia

 

[Melsworld]

Wow, are we allowed to talk about Gray Hughes 3-D animation? Amazingly done and scared the daylights out of me.

 

[Megnut]

Wow, are we allowed to talk about Gray Hughes 3-D animation? Amazingly done and scared the daylights out of me.

Yes.

Final animation, video 20 minutes

ETA at 17:50 he runs the animation without commentary, only the suggestion of violence, but still very creepy, eerie, real

 

[jepop]

New court docs. Nothing about a continuance, but below does seem to indicate business as usual for now. Hopeful that the continuance will be denied or if not, just a short one (a month or so).

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/CR01-24-31665/2025/5272025_Order_Sealing_Defs_Objection_to_Courts_Rqst_for_Defense_to_Submit_Redacted_Copy_of_Ex_Parte_Filing.pdf

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/CR01-24-31665/2025/5272025_Order_Sealing_Defs_Evidence_in_Support_of_Offer_of_Proof_RE_Alternate_Perpetrators_and_Exhibits.pdf

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/CR01-24-31665/2025/5232025_Motion_to_Seal_Defs_Obj_to_Courts_Request_for_Defense_to_Submit_Redacted_Copy_of_Ex_Parte_Filing.pdf

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/CR01-24-31665/2025/5232025_Motion_to_Seal_Defendants_Evidence_iso_Offer_of_Proof_RE_Alternate_Perpetrators_and_Exhibits.pdf

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/CR01-24-31665/2025/5232025_States_Supplemental_Notice_of_Compliance.pdf

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/CR01-24-31665/2025/5222025_Defendants_Motion_to_Permit_Mitigation_Witnesses_to_Watch_Trial.pdf

https://coi.isc.idaho.gov/docs/CR01-24-31665/2025/5222025_States_Notice_of_Compliance.pdf

ETA. Seems there may be a hold up to the state responding to defense's motion for continuance. From the docs it appears Hippler asked the defense to provide the state with a redacted copy of the ex parte supplement to that motion, and the defense has objected.

 

[MassGuy]

Updated case summary:

https://s3.dualstack.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/isc.coi/CR01-24-31665/Summary/Current-Case-Summary.pdf

 

[Ghostwheel]

Yes.

Final animation, video 20 minutes

ETA at 17:50 he runs the animation without commentary, only the suggestion of violence, but still very creepy, eerie, real

Did anyone notice the bit about going into the bathroom and laying the knife on the sink? Is that information known, or was he just guessing?

 

[Melsworld]

Did anyone notice the bit about going into the bathroom and laying the knife on the sink? Is that information known, or was he just guessing?

I wondered about that too. Maybe that's where he wrapped the knife if true.

 

[Slamalam]

Did anyone notice the bit about going into the bathroom and laying the knife on the sink? Is that information known, or was he just guessing?

oh no! Is this another leak? Time to delay another 8 months…

 

[Megnut]

Did anyone notice the bit about going into the bathroom and laying the knife on the sink? Is that information known, or was he just guessing?

"Cleaning up" came from a defense motion.

Setting the knife down, speculation

JMO

 

[wendy44]

I am trying to figure out the defense AT will present. Probably harp on the fact that the prosecution must present evidence that BK did the crime he is accused of, and all AT will be able to do is try to poke holes in it...I don't see the big government finding poor little BK to frame will work.

Any ideas for a viable defense for BK?

I think they will lean heavily on the lack of any evidence from the crime found in his car (and apartment if that's also the case). Even though we've seen it in other trials, a lot of people can't wrap their minds around there being no trace of the victims in that car, considering the scene.
JMO

 

[Chloegirl]

Yes.

Final animation, video 20 minutes

ETA at 17:50 he runs the animation without commentary, only the suggestion of violence, but still very creepy, eerie, real

Perhaps it's just me but this is the dumbest thing I have ever seen. I don't think he needed to offer it at all. JMOO

 

[Megnut]

Being that BK apparently sat down in XK's room, could he have been half-witted enough to step out of his coveralls while still in the house? Stripped down to a body-conforming running suit, his shoes uncovered, walking out with his coveralls wrapped tightly around his knife....

It might explain the shoe tread, the "hand-vacuum". You wouldn't think he could be that stupid, but....

JMO

 

[Sachi]

If grains of sand
Were the SODDIs not,
BK is the only tree
Standing in the desert hot.

I get this! Lol, ty ty