4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #97

[10ofRods]

If BK's arrest at his family home had gone wrong, would he have been capable of killing them all, I wonder? Himself and his parents? (and his sisters? It is unclear to me if they were there at the time.)

I think he's a Thrill Killer, so the answer would be "no." He would have protected his family (or tried to - he seems to be impulsive and limited in some ways). He would have protected them if he was lke BTK or Israel Keyes (both of whom are not thoroughly researched or understood at this point in time - but both of whom resembled BK, IMO).

There are a lot of other killers who will come up if you google "thrill killer." Scholar.google.com is even better.

For comparison, Ted Bundy is not usually classified as a thrill killer (psychosexual killer instead, maybe)

But I'm interested in FBI analysis and psychoanalytic classses of killers. It's not the hardest science. But I believe that study of such people yields something helpful.
BK had reasons to believe that his family would not be killed - although I agree, he risked them.
He did not care who was risking, IMO.
As most murderers don't. But also, his younger years of writing.

IMO

 

[snooptroop88]

Right. Seriously, it is simply not a fact that he lied. It is only an opinion/interpretation of what a moment of limited testimony 'revealed'. There is no 'lie' as substantive fact that we can be aware of. Only conjecture and assumption. Moo

Agree. Suppressing evidence is his only defense because he is guilty.

Yup, agreed on both counts. Trying to turn this into a "lie" reeks of desperation.

Would we know if he tried to get a plea deal of some kind? Because it's mind-boggling to me that he's not trying to get one. I can't believe this case is going to develop into an actual trial. If he's really that concerned about the DP, wouldn't the logical move be to aggressively try to seek a plea deal in this situation? The evidence against him is overwhelming. If he doesn't end up getting some kind of plea deal, I'd almost be inclined to think the state is refusing to accept that arrangement. And considering his unique circumstances, many might consider the state's refusal just. How much of a "punishment" is it going to be for BK to sit in prison the rest of his life? He'd probably enjoy the notoriety.

 

[BeginnerSleuther]

You're not allowed to revisit any piece of evidence or ask someone to confirm? How about when you find additional evidence that might give them context? Like a higher resolution shot of the car?

That isn't what I said nor is it what I was responding to. The post I responded to suggested it was ok to change your analysis to make it fit your hypothesis. It's like hammering a square peg into a round hole, then changing the square to a circle to make it fit.

Car identification is not binary. It's not even a 5 quadrillion to 1 DNA score. It's subjective. JMO

We wouldn't solve a single cold case and would probably have to stop investigations right after the first suspect was dismissed, if taking a second look at a piece of evidence was considered nefarious.

Ok. But that's still not what I said.

MOO.

 

[BeginnerSleuther]

Is this in reference to thr car year?

Yes.

The Elantras are the same model iteration.

Makes no difference to my point.

MOO.

 

[Boxer]

MOO the point is that Elantras are the same model design years.
His fits the video of leaving Pullman, circling the King Rd. house, leaving Moscow and returning to Pullman in the morniing.

 

[mrjitty]

That isn't what I said nor is it what I was responding to. The post I responded to suggested it was ok to change your analysis to make it fit your hypothesis. It's like hammering a square peg into a round hole, then changing the square to a circle to make it fit.



Ok. But that's still not what I said.

MOO.

I disagree with that characterisation. Experts make mistakes all the time. In the context of a fluid investigation, where LE had received new evidence, he was asked if he could have been incorrect in his assessment of the year. He apparently agreed that could be the case. None of this was hidden from the Judge who granted the warrant. The affiant included this reassessment on the face of the document.

So he wasn't changing it to fit the hypothesis. The investigation had new evidence which suggested the two cars were the same and the FBI expert had the year wrong. It's entirely fine to do this in light of new facts.

Of course this will open the door at trial for the defence to suggest his original assessment was the correct one. But the idea he can't update his assessment is strange to me, so long as the judge was told this - and it is explicit in the affidavit that he changed his mind.

MOO

 

[mrjitty]

MOO the point is that Elantras are the same model design years.
His fits the video of leaving Pullman, circling the King Rd. house, leaving Moscow and returning to Pullman in the morniing.

Right. We actually know the two cars are the same one, and that BK is the killer. So the FBI expert made a partial error that was corrected - all of which is in the affidavit.

BKs only chance is the constitutional one, which IMO is likely to play out in post trial appeals up to the highest court.

IMO the defence argument to suggest that the investigation is not allowed to make errors and correct them, or to connect pieces of evidence, or to make use of other insights is wrongheaded.

Probable cause for SW is a low bar. There is no need for the affiant to set out the whole case there, or explain all the investigators thinking. So long as they tell the Judge they changed their minds.

 

[katydid23]

@Swansee @sunshineray

This is all MOO as I'm not an expert of any kind and this is me going off of memory....

From what I remember reading, if evidence is carried from one state to another or the investigation involves organizations across states (or federally) then a Federal Grand Jury can be sought. It centralizes oversight and makes obtaining evidence (financial, phone, internet, etc) less reliant on state jurisdiction. MOO, JMO, IMO (did I miss any?)

So it was more of a strategy thing. Which I remember the defense trying to challenge? I think.....? MOO

MOO

That could be it. It makes sense since the murders took place in one state, the suspect lived in a neighbouring state, and he was arrested in his family home halfway across the country. That would involve 3 separate state jurisdictions at that point.

 

[girlhasnoname]

If BK's arrest at his family home had gone wrong, would he have been capable of killing them all, I wonder? Himself and his parents? (and his sisters? It is unclear to me if they were there at the time.)

I think LE thought that might be a real possibility and that is why they made such a forceful tactical SWAT raid on the house in the early morning hours. They did recover a gun in the SW, I think BK could have been capable of anything, including killing himself if he'd been able to get to the weapon.

I feel sorry for his parents, I think they've always tried to help BK above and beyond in every way they could. They are victims of his actions as well.

JMO

 

[mrjitty]

Altering Analysis of Evidence.


@BeginnerSleuther
Agreeing that IF someone w LE agency altered analysis of evidence to match a suspect, that is misconduct. Doubtful imo that we (gen. public) knows that to be a fact here re the model years of perp's vehicle.
AFAIK, we do not have access to the ct. filings which may reveal new info.

Looking forward to learning Judge H's ruling.

Agreed - we are far from that IMO.

For instance the affidavit does not say the FBI expert changed his opinion to claim the vehicle was the later model. According to the Affidavit it appears he is saying it could be either i.e there is uncertainty and he does not know which it is. None of this is being hidden from the Judge - it is explicit on the face of the document.

 

[jepop]

Agreed - we are far from that IMO.

For instance the affidavit does not say the FBI expert changed his opinion to claim the vehicle was the later model. According to the Affidavit it appears he is saying it could be either i.e there is uncertainty and he does not know which it is. None of this is being hidden from the Judge - it is explicit on the face of the document.

Exactly, the arrest PCA is well written. And carefully written. The investigators are good ones and weren't born yesterday. Jmo

Paraphrasing Chief Fry in one of his late December pre-arrest press conferences, IIRC, when all and sundry were hammering him about the lack of an arrest. He asked for patience because 'we want a conviction not just an arrest' or similar. Moo the investigation was far too careful and well coordinated to blunder in a way that would put the arrest affidavit at risk of future suppression. Purely my opinion.

 

[katydid23]

The prosecution has BK’s DNA on the button of the knife’s sheath, which was on the bed partially under a body. How is he going to weasel out of that?

Here is one way:

BK simply says … “I bought a knife with a sheath just like that. Last time I saw it was when I put it in my desk drawer at the college. The next day it was gone. Instead of accusing me, why aren’t the police talking to the students and janitorial staff?”

Remember, it only takes one juror to create a hung jury!

That might just work, if he hadn't also had such 'bad luck' to be out driving alone all that night in question, with his phone off. And that a car just like his, with no front plate like his, just happens to be seen doing a 4 point turn out in front of the crime scene, and then later seen on video rushing away. And his only alibi being that he was star gazing in the middle of the night, in freezing foggy weather, in closed federal park at the time.

If the jury looks at all that circumstantial evidence, and adds to it, his admission of buying the murder weapon, that has his DNA on it, that was found at the crime scene. he'd be done.

 

[mrjitty]

Exactly, the arrest PCA is well written. And carefully written. The investigators are good ones and weren't born yesterday. Jmo

Paraphrasing Chief Fry in one of his late December pre-arrest press conferences, IIRC, when all and sundry were hammering him about the lack of an arrest. He asked for patience because 'we want a conviction not just an arrest' or similar. Moo the investigation was far too careful and well coordinated to blunder in a way that would put the arrest affidavit at risk of future suppression. Purely my opinion.

I'd be shocked in a case of this magnitude if the PCA was not written by a senior prosecutor. This is why I am slow to buy into the idea that the affiant simply lied, even if he is concealing how he knew the two cars were the same.

The drafter of the affidavit will have needed to see the email from the expert that updates the year - otherwise he would not have put that in there. Furthermore, it's likely stage managed. i.e they asked for that email, so they can get to the PC on the papers.

People may see that as underhand, but from where I sit, LE certainly had reasonable grounds for their suspicion

The other point here, is that the D may say the DNA search is unconstitutional, but as investigators viewed the case in the moment, the search was fine, so again I don't see anything underhand in terms of what the law was at that time.

This isn't a case where police had done something totally illegal (e.g an off the books wiretap) in order to connect the dots.

MOO

 

[katydid23]

PCA:
After reviewing the numerous observations of Suspect Vehicle 1, the forensic examiner initially believed that Suspect Vehicle 1 was a20ll-2013 Hyundai Elantra. Upon further review, he indicated it could also be a2011-2016 Hyundai Elantra. As a result, investigators have been reviewing information on persons in possession of a vehicle that is a 201 1-2016 white Hyundai Elantra.

The sealed FM has 38 exhibits.

IGG is a major focus as are the basic facts used to support an arrest.

From the MTS Arrest warrant

The basic facts Cpl. Payne used to support the arrest are discussed in detail in a separately filed motion pursuant to Franks v. Delaware 438 U.S. 154 (1978).

https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/isc.coi/CR01-24-31665/2024/111424-Motion-Supress-Memorandum-Support-Arrest-Warrant.pdf

From the MTS ATT

All information in the affidavit was gathered because of law enforcement’s unconstitutional use of Investigative Genetic Genealogy, and thus nothing in the warrant should remain.

https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/isc.coi/CR01-24-31665/2024/111424-Motion-Supress-Memorandum-Support-ATT-First-Warrant.pdf

The FM is about more than a car identification. The car identification is only one basic fact in the PCA. The car is under discussion because of a footnote in an Order and the previous testimony of BP.

ETA links

JMO

The judge is not going to rule the use of IGG as unconstitutional, and then let the quadruple murder suspect walk free.

 

[mrjitty]

The judge is not going to rule the use of IGG as unconstitutional, and then let the quadruple murder suspect walk free.

Agreed

This is an issue which will ultimately have to be determined by the highest constitutional State (and Federal) court. IMO the defence will lose on this point pre-trial, and then have to appeal it all the way post trial.

I don't see it as the role of a trial court to step into the middle of such a far reaching question, in respect of LE procedure which is legal at this time.

MOO

 

[katydid23]

I don't believe that has any chance of happening, just my humble opinion.

I don't think it will happen either. Investigative Genealogy has been clearing hundreds and hundreds of cold cases, and hundreds of unidentified remains and hundreds of unsolved rapes.

I do not believe the Higher Courts are going to suddenly shut down that avenue because some legal analysts are claiming it is Unconstitutional. I don't think that legal argument is going to win the courts over at this point in time. JMO

I think they will conclude that people who send in their DNA and check the box for LE to have access are allowed to make that decision. If you are a rapist or a killer and you are concerned about your distant cousin getting a DNA test that rats you out----OH WELL, too bad. You don't have a constitutional right to prevent your relatives from checking that box, just so you can avoid arrest for your crimes, IMO.

 

[katydid23]

You don't alter analysis of the evidence to match a suspect. That's blatant misconduct, IMO.

No one 'altered' evidence. They updated their earlier analysis of the cars model years that they were searching for. They expanded the years because they realised they looked so similar...that is not 'blatant misconduct.' They expanded their search criteria.

 

[katydid23]

That would NOT matter. IF there is a Frank's Hearing and the first AT&T warrant is invalidated due to the vehicle year, the arrest warrant and warrant to collect BK's DNA in both PA and ID ALL fall under the first AT&T Warrant, so it would ALL be Fruit of the Poisonous Tree.

That seems very unlikely to happen, imo. I just cannot see a judge ruling the AT&T warrant invalid because an investigator wanted to widen the data criteria for the Elantra search. I think there is zero chance of it going down like that. JMO

 

[katydid23]

22,000 white Elantras in the original date range were reported to be in the area they were searching by LE. Also, on the night of the murders tens of thousands of people had come into these cities from out of town for the football game and also for Family weekend at WSU. The correct white Elantra could have been anywhere.

"The correct white Elantra could have been anywhere."

Not really. The 'correct' White Elantra could only have been at the crime scene. That is the only Elantra they are concerned with. Those White Elantras that tourists drove to the football games are irrelevant. IMO

 

[katydid23]

Just out of curiosity, where did you learn the DNA was inside the tiny metallic groove of the snap?

Wasn't that said by LE back at the start of the case?

Right - this seems non-controversial to me, and it a typical defence strategy.

Seems reminiscent of the 'hands plugging in the headphones' @ 4:30 pm in the Delphi case. Ended up being a total Nothing-Burger.