I'm still stuck on the question of whether there's any evidence the kids actually made it home from New Glasgow on the 1st
I think this is where I'm at now with my theoretical scenario.
I've been thinking about the case from a behavioural and statistical analysis point of view . The following is my opinion only and done from the angle of an investigator
My opinion depends heavily on the children not being sighted by anyone else other than DM and MBM after they returned home from grocery shopping. Which is not known publicly at the moment. . And if they were not seen I'm taking the date of disappearance from when they were last seen in public on the 1st of May.which is what an investigator would do trying to establish a timeline .
I only analysed the known facts . So description of clothes , behaviour and action and inaction of parents , search and rescue, reward , major crimes unit taking the lead and what the RCMP are including in their statements and a speculation of what they may be omitting.
Reward , is not offered in cases of missing persons were no foulplay has been suspected
Major crimes unit . Does not get involved in missing persons cases unless criminality is the prime suspicion
search and rescue , biggest search in the history of the province. No sign of children wanderinginto the forest . One would expect to find evidenceof them havingbeen through there , lost toys , pieces of clothing etc
DM'S behaviour. Particularly in the early weeks , Seems cooperative and more willing to engage with investigators and the public and alleged by him participation in search .
May or may not be aware of what happened and may have been a participant in a cover up . I can see him imo in a role such as helping to conceal a crime and his reasoning being protecting his relationship with bio children. And his loyalty to a possible perpetrator. If his role was Co conspirator he may be the weakest link but at the moment he possibly feels he is in too deep and is afraid of losing custody of his children.
MBM'S behaviour, atypical for a mother of missing children. Allegedly Left search area on 3rd of may and Hasn't spoken on behalf of her children since . Left relationship . Does this raise red flags from the eyes of an investigator this certainly raises suspicion.
From behavioural analysis , the behaviour is typical of a guilty conscience. Which may simply be a blaming of oneself for bringing the children to live in the area .
Statistically speaking when a mother is a perpetrator, it is generally a mercy killing , a moment of rage ,or after an argument with a partner . Method ,suffocation or drowning. Leaves little forensic trace
Description of kids and clothing, full description of lillys clothing and backpack ( including a backpack may imply the need to create the wandering off story for LE ) may have been the favoured child or may have been killed first ,so a perpetrator has more time to take in what has happened,. Description of Jack's clothing, not as clear and more items added over days . Perpetrator may have killed him as he was a witness and it was done quickly and while perpetrator was in a panic .
My overall synopsis is the children were killed or handed off in a moment of rage and by the time RCMP were called the kids were hidden
This is all MOO and speculative