CANADA Canada - Jack, 4 & Lilly Sullivan, 6, Vulnerable, wandered from home 10am, Gairloch Rd, Landsdowne Station, Pictou County, NS, 2 May 2025 #3

[6degrees]

I don't know about NS but in Ontario public school kids have outdoor shoes/boots and indoor shoes for school. Normally, the pair designated for "indoor" are worn exclusively indoors.

ETA: google says it's the same in NS.

Hi Ontario Mom;
I haven't been here since Tim Bosma's case 2013-2017.
Nice to see so many familiar names.
Just getting caught up; have been following the story but diving in here now.
Forgive me for a potentially stupid question; why are LE so convinced this is not an abduction?
I know I'm far behind from where all of you are....and how does step dad know Lily was wearing the backpack when she actually left?
Was the sliding door the only exit of the home?
If not, why is he so sure that is how Lily and Jack exited the home?

Truly great to see you and other members you stood by Tim and his family through those awful years
I met Sharlene Bosma recently (for unplanned professional reasons) and she is indeed a powerhouse with a commanding presence!

 

[iamafiusny]

There was a CBC interview with a search and rescue expert, posted upthread which talks about kids who get lost in thick woods. We think they wouldn't go as far, but they actually go further in thick bush than when lost in a thinner woods. The S&R expert, Robert Koester, has collected a database of a half-million search and rescue incidents from around the world and compiled them in a database, which he uses to create statistics.

From the article:

"Qn. And what about the forest conditions? This area has really dense underbrush and fallen trees, and it's almost like you can't even see through the forest when you're trying to look. How could that set kids back in terms of how far they can go?

A. This sometimes limits the data, but in kind of a surprising result, a lot of my data also comes from the Pacific Northwest, so Oregon, Washington state, British Columbia. And you would think those thicker forests might slow people down, but in fact they tend to go a little bit further than in the more eastern vegetation."
...

I suspect that this is because kids are less likely to backtrack when walking through a thick woods, especially with trees fallen from the hurricane. It seems to me that they would walk in the direction of the fallen trees, rather than walk against the fallen trees. What I mean is, if the fallen trees are pointing north, then they would walk north, rather than in circles or back south to return in the direction that they came from.
jmo

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/missing-person-expert-lansdowne-station-search-1.7531338

Two kids though? Without snagging a shirt or dropping a backpack?

Getting a cut a dog would smell?

Moo

 

[Andromeda]

DM's statement that he was running ahead of the search helicopters sounds goofy as all get out to me. I'm sure the helicopters weren't flying in a straight line.

This is completely out of left field, but I’m wondering if he’s dyslexic? Like, maybe instead of saying the helicopters were flying over and past him, instead he said he was running ahead of them.

Understanding Dyslexia and Its Impact on Verbal Communication​

“[…]

Effects on Fluency and Coherence​

Fluency and coherence in spoken language are often affected by dyslexia. Dyslexic individuals sometimes pause frequently during speech, leading to disjointed conversations. This interruption may occur as they search for words or organize their thoughts, which affects overall fluency.

Coherence is also a concern. Individuals with dyslexia might struggle to express their ideas logically, leading to disorganized speech. This is particularly evident in tasks that require spontaneous language production, such as telling a story or participating in discussions. Moreover, some may find it hard to keep track of conversational threads, resulting in misunderstandings and frustration. […]

https://scholiva.com/articles/understanding-dyslexia-verbal-communication/

 

[6degrees]

Them breaking up whilst the children are missing shows IMO that they couldn’t have been a strong couple - I wonder if they slept in the same bedroom (especially with the young child sleeping there). My guess is they didn’t.

I just hope the police can pin down the mother on whether or not SHE saw either child that morning (I think it will turn out that she did not)

This case is beginning to remind me of the Madeline Soto case - during this case in early interviews the mum used words like ‘we’ when in reality she never saw or heard Maddie that morning.

Do we actually know that they "broke up"?
We know that she left to stay with family members.
Forgive me if I have missed something as although I have been following the case, I have just logged on here after an absence of a few years.
What we do know as per step father is that Lily came into their bedroom a number of times that morning.
I have not heard any elaboration on that interaction in terms of what Lily was hoping/looking for.

 

[MistyWaters]

She decided to "get away" from the Gairloch Rd location for a reason. Respectfully, I think it would be in MBM's interest that her location is not made public at this time. So, if anyone knows, let's keep that on the low.

My reference to “back home” related to the missing Lilly and Jack. I wondered if they ever lived on the reserve prior to their mother hooking up with DM. Otherwise where would ‘back home’ be for the missing children as the mother is gone from Gairloch Rd? Maybe the Chief is hopes/wants the missing children to go back home on the reserve? That’s my only guess at the Chief’s words.

MBM was reported by the media to be staying with her mother and fear not, the location was not made public as far as I know.

 

[iamafiusny]

This is completely out of left field, but I’m wondering if he’s dyslexic? Like, maybe instead of saying the helicopters were flying over and past him, instead he said he was running ahead of them.

Understanding Dyslexia and Its Impact on Verbal Communication​

“[…]

Effects on Fluency and Coherence​

Fluency and coherence in spoken language are often affected by dyslexia. Dyslexic individuals sometimes pause frequently during speech, leading to disjointed conversations. This interruption may occur as they search for words or organize their thoughts, which affects overall fluency.

Coherence is also a concern. Individuals with dyslexia might struggle to express their ideas logically, leading to disorganized speech. This is particularly evident in tasks that require spontaneous language production, such as telling a story or participating in discussions. Moreover, some may find it hard to keep track of conversational threads, resulting in misunderstandings and frustration. […]

https://scholiva.com/articles/understanding-dyslexia-verbal-communication/

Might also have a grandiose personality disorder

Moo

 

[iamafiusny]

Do we actually know that they "broke up"?
We know that she left to stay with family members.
Forgive me if I have missed something as although I have been following the case, I have just logged on here after an absence of a few years.
What we do know as per step father is that Lily came into their bedroom a number of times that morning.
I have not heard any elaboration on that interaction in terms of what Lily was hoping/looking for.

She cut off contact and blocked him
Used RCMP to collect stuffed animals

 

[Angelcat13]

Some folks in the last thread were talking about how strange it was the parents couldn’t describe Jack’s clothing.
I could have sworn I heard the stepdad mention a full pull up. (Side note: Like the soiled backpack description, this made me shudder.)
If he was wearing a full pull up, he was wearing his clothes from last night. I mean, he might sleep only in a pull up but, in that weather, in that house, I would think he’d be wearing jammies.
If I’m right about the pull up (correct me if I’m wrong) then I think it’s weird neither of them would know what else he’d been wearing.

I can tell you what my kids (similar ages) are wearing at any time unless, I suppose, they are up and changed before me. But a full pull up would suggest Jack didn’t change.

Expecting a harsh correction on this one.

I always thought I was a horrible parent when I would read about a missing kid and the parents were able go describe what they were wearing. I would think, “I have no idea what my kids were wearing - except maybe their shoes.” I guess maybe it was trying to get up and out of the house early with young kids and having to feed/take care of multiple pets before leaving the house.

 

[AIGT]

She cut off contact and blocked him
Used RCMP to collect stuffed animals

And when the globe called her phone the women who answered told the reporter that they are no longer in a relationship.

 

[KariKae]

I always thought I was a horrible parent when I would read about a missing kid and the parents were able go describe what they were wearing. I would think, “I have no idea what my kids were wearing - except maybe their shoes.” I guess maybe it was trying to get up and out of the house early with young kids and having to feed/take care of multiple pets before leaving the house.

I cannot tell you how many times I thought this same thing when my kiddos were little, even when I was the one to get them dressed!

Me OTOH - It's always black pants. During the week, it's black dress pants. On the weekends, it's black yoga pants!

 

[musicaljoke]

Two kids though? Without snagging a shirt or dropping a backpack?

Getting a cut a dog would smell?

Moo

From the same article:

"And how often is it that there are clues? These kids didn't leave any trace. [RCMP said] they thought they saw one boot print and then there was nothing else. So how common is that?

"So most searches will have at least one or two clues … I have certainly run searches with no clues, the only clue was the last place they were seen, and then we find the subject. So it's really hard to say. It also depends upon, you know, do you have trained trackers? We usually call a dog alert a clue.

"I've seen both — I find the subject with no clues, and I have lots of clues and never find the subject."

 

[justice2962]

Not sure if this has been posted, I don’t recall reading this

Nova Scotia RCMP’s search for missing children re-examining areas around siblings’ home as police plead for tips

“Local RCMP are being assisted by the Northeast Nova RCMP Major Crime Unit, a branch of the Mounties that investigates homicides, suspicious deaths and missing persons cases where foul play is suspected.”

 

[Ontario Mom]

Hi Ontario Mom;
I haven't been here since Tim Bosma's case 2013-2017.
Nice to see so many familiar names.
Just getting caught up; have been following the story but diving in here now.
Forgive me for a potentially stupid question; why are LE so convinced this is not an abduction?
I know I'm far behind from where all of you are....and how does step dad know Lily was wearing the backpack when she actually left?
Was the sliding door the only exit of the home?
If not, why is he so sure that is how Lily and Jack exited the home?

Truly great to see you and other members you stood by Tim and his family through those awful years
I met Sharlene Bosma recently (for unplanned professional reasons) and she is indeed a powerhouse with a commanding presence!

Really nice to see you too.

• Please be assured, it's not a stupid question at all as to potential abduction.
So far, from their own statements the RCMP have found nothing to suggest that at all. It seems in the first moments of the case the parents somewhat frantically pushed that out there as a possibility but it seems there's been no evidence of that.
• How does the step-dad know Lilly was wearing the backpack? Good question. My best guess is that it's a special item to her, and it's missing from the house. Her having it with her when she left the house, makes the most sense.
• Sliding door - no there was another door leading to the outside from the arial pics of the house but for whatever reason it seems the mom & step-dad think the kids exited from that slider. My guess is, that was the normal door they all used to exit the home on that side.

My heart still goes out to the Bosma family. We had mutual church family/friends as you may recall and his case will always be huge to me.

 

[iamafiusny]

From the same article:

"And how often is it that there are clues? These kids didn't leave any trace. [RCMP said] they thought they saw one boot print and then there was nothing else. So how common is that?

"So most searches will have at least one or two clues … I have certainly run searches with no clues, the only clue was the last place they were seen, and then we find the subject. So it's really hard to say. It also depends upon, you know, do you have trained trackers? We usually call a dog alert a clue.

"I've seen both — I find the subject with no clues, and I have lots of clues and never find the subject."

How often do they never find the subject alive or find a body?

Well, never finding the subject, which we would call it a search suspension, that occurs about five per cent of the time in the database.


Also from that article. So a 95% chance they would be found one way or another. I imagine those odds increase when you have TWO missing kids.

Moo

 

[iamafiusny]

I always thought I was a horrible parent when I would read about a missing kid and the parents were able go describe what they were wearing. I would think, “I have no idea what my kids were wearing - except maybe their shoes.” I guess maybe it was trying to get up and out of the house early with young kids and having to feed/take care of multiple pets before leaving the house.

But you got up and took care of your pets and got your kids out of the house.

That's different than not seeing them at all in the morning or even being able to say what you tucked them into bed wearing.

Moo

 

[musicaljoke]

How often do they never find the subject alive or find a body?

Well, never finding the subject, which we would call it a search suspension, that occurs about five per cent of the time in the database.


Also from that article. So a 95% chance they would be found one way or another. I imagine those odds increase when you have TWO missing kids.

Moo

Yes, I would think so. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised that they are eventually found in the woods, It was reported that an area of 4 square kms of dense forest was searched. That seems like a decent size area until you realize this is an area with a radius of only 1.3 kms from the home.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/pictou-county-missing-children-lily-jack-sullivan-may-7-1.7528438

 

[whitelilac]

How often do they never find the subject alive or find a body?

Well, never finding the subject, which we would call it a search suspension, that occurs about five per cent of the time in the database.


Also from that article. So a 95% chance they would be found one way or another. I imagine those odds increase when you have TWO missing kids.

Moo

Summer Wells, DeOrr Kuntz, Haleigh Cummings, Lisa Irwin, Kyron Harmon, little Adji, ......more I can't think of now. Too many.

 

[iamafiusny]

Yes, I would think so. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised that they are eventually found in the woods, It was reported that an area of 4 square kms of dense forest was searched. That seems like a decent size area until you realize this is an area with a radius of only 1.3 kms from the home.

Possibly, but its been quite a few days and they haven't returned to search.

Seems they have locked in on something.

Moo

 

[iamafiusny]

Summer Wells, DeOrr Kuntz, Haleigh Cummings, Lisa Irwin, Kyron Harmon, little Adji, ......more I can't think of now. Too many.

Th statistic is right there. 95% found.

You're naming a handful of literally hundreds of thousands of children that go missing every year.


This article was in relation to children lost in dense woods anyway.

Moo

 

[Angelcat13]

But you got up and took care of your pets and got your kids out of the house.

That's different than not seeing them at all in the morning or even being able to say what you tucked them into bed wearing.

Moo

Very true. And thank you for your kind words that made me feel that I may not have been “the perfect” mom, but I was still a good mom and I raised 3 good kids.