CANADA Canada - Jack, 4 & Lilly Sullivan, 6, Vulnerable, wandered from home 10am, Gairloch Rd, Landsdowne Station, Pictou County, NS, 2 May 2025 #7

[Ontario Mom]

I said, I'm believing the witness/es, but of course I wondered about the one witness, who allegedly was working on a car/cars by night. After midnight I find that verrry strange, but what do I know about living in NS.

I don't know about NS but here in Ontario, a lot of companies hire for either continental shift (rotating) or at the very least 3 shifts in a 24 hour day (days/afternoons/nights). Those who work those shifts, usually stay on them when it's their days off.

So for example, if someone's on night shift and it's their day off, they'll still stay up all night & sleep during the day. Very common here, so when I read this neighbor was up at that time that was my first thought, that maybe he's a night shifter.

jmo

 

[Megnut]

Just ny opinion, but "passed a polygraph" is meaningless afaic. Like passing a driver's test. Not a helpful statement without context. Took one, completed it, passed, but I ain't telling you any scores. It is not "got 'em all right' IMO. Took it, scored it, done it.

I even know one now convicted murderer who boasted about passing a polygraph test -- which she tried to buy on the internet. Her choice of questions to ask sent the website (it does exist) straight to LE to report her.

Not saying that happened here, just suggesting that there is a wide latitude IMO of what "passing" may or may not mean.

I personally give it a weight of exactly zero.

JMO

 

[seasideForest]

Not really. There are pretty terrible, actually. And do we even have official word they passed multiple tests? They are more of an interrogation tool: folks don't think they will get away with lying so they don't. Many suspects will suddenly change their story just before a lie detector test.

If somebody passes multiple lie detectors tests it suggests they are being truthful. But it is not proof.

I would never take one due to the possibility of false positives.

Thank you. That was my point. It's been said on this thread and on threads of other cases that a particular person 'passed' but there are members on here who have explained that it's not possible to pass or fail. MOO

 

[MistyWaters]

Thank you. That was my point. It's been said on this thread and on threads of other cases that a particular person 'passed' but there are members on here who have explained that it's not possible to pass or fail. MOO

Nowhere that I noticed did the RCMP say anyone “passed” a polygraph, just as they never said anything was “ruled out”. Neither is police terminology.

A polygrapher only asks very specific questions and assesses if the responses to those questions appear truthful or indicate deception. We don’t know what questions were asked. But it’s not fair to totally discount the accuracy of polygraphs as it’s heavily dependent on the qualifications of the examiner and the RCMP would rank higher than, for example a polygrapher for street hire. The RCMP do use it as an investigative tool and if it wasn’t the least bit valuable for their intended purpose I'm certain they would’ve realized that at some point in their long history of policing in Canada.
JMO

Are polygraph tests admissible in Canada? - FREE Legal Information | Legal Line

Although police in Canada can use polygraph tests – commonly known as lie detector tests – in their investigations, in most cases the results are not admissible as evidence in court. Polygraph tests in Criminal Court The Supreme Court of Canada has ruled repeatedly that polygraph evidence is...

www.legalline.ca

Use of polygraphs by police​

As mentioned, it is legal for police in Canada to use polygraph tests in their investigations. Police have a right to search, interrogate and detain potential suspects and witnesses. Under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms individuals have the right to remain silent. It is important to know that what you say to the police or write down could later become evidence against you.

 

[darring21]

Thank you. That was my point. It's been said on this thread and on threads of other cases that a particular person 'passed' but there are members on here who have explained that it's not possible to pass or fail. MOO

According to google,

• Critics and independent studies often place accuracy between 70% and 95%.

Also, volunteering for polygraphs are not something guilty people typically do.

It seems like many are ignoring facts that don't fit their theory.

 

[su5ie]

According to the documents it is only stated that CS, DM and others were truthful and MBM was truthful when answering specific questions.

Imo a polygraph is only as reliable as a person's aptitude for lying or what a person may feel is the truth .

CIA and M15 agents are taught to lie if needed and they become adept at having to lie under pressure so a polygraph is not going give an accurate reading of truth in those circumstances. Other people like psychopaths, sociopaths and pathological liars can pass Polygraphs with ease

Little Johnny might be asked did he steal a loaf of bread but because he was starving and does not feel he stole because he took it out of necessity rather than greed might present two different results when asked specific questions. So will he come across as lying or truthful when he answers No to the "Did you steal it because you seen an opportunity " question and will he come across as truthful when he answers yes to the "Did you take it because you were hungry " question . The the way the questions are phrased matters . As we see with janie her physiology would not allow for an accurate reading .

So all manner of things can affect the result

Polygraphs are only a guide, As we see from mbms test results . She was the only one where in the documents it didnt just state truthful but Did her stress levels rise when ask certain questions because she became upset over her two missing children and it gave an inaccurate reading ? So did the examiner have to rephrase the questions to get a more accurate biological reading to gauge truth and this is why it states in Documents she answered truthful when asked specific questions?


I must actually look up what a polygraph reads because I think some people in general including myself often think they are hooked up to some truth barometer within the brain . When I think it's more to do with chemical and physiological reactions in the body such as heart and pulse rate

 

[su5ie]

Common Countermeasures Used in Polygraph Exams - Lie Detector Test

Discover common countermeasures used in polygraph exams, including tactics and techniques people use to try to deceive lie detector tests.

liedetectortest.com

lie detector test

www.law.cornell.edu

Mental and physical countermeasures reduce the accuracy of polygraph tests - PubMed

Effects of countermeasures on the control-question polygraph test were examined in an experiment with 120 Ss recruited from the general community. Ss were given polygraph tests by an examiner who used field techniques. Twenty Ss were innocent, and of the 100 guilty Ss, 80 were trained in the use...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Some interesting reading regarding accuracy and how they work

https://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/09/25/nsa-whistleblower-reveals-how-to-beat-a-polygraph-test

Edited to add additional link for shorter synopsis

 

[Slebby]

The Truth About Lie Detectors (aka Polygraph Tests)

Most psychologists agree that there is little evidence that polygraph tests can accurately detect lies.

www.apa.org

Some info on polygraph testing, for your reading pleasure.

 

[Danaya]

Gary Ridgway (the Green River Killer) passed a polygraph in 1984. He evaded charges for 17 years until DNA evidence linked him to the crime scenes in 2001.

 

[su5ie]

So from the literature and articles above and examples provided , passing means nothing . It just means their physiology on the day indicated a truthful result . So back to square one and the rhetorical question that is on everyone's mind . Is everyone being entirely honest ? how will anyone know for sure until remains are found . We see from past cases sometimes it takes years for a conclusion .


And with so many typical red flags , do they indicate a dysfunctional family and the consequences of an out of control lifestyle or are they indicators that the kids were left in an environment that was a detriment to their wellbeing , whatever that detrimental effect was ,wandering ? , homicide ? , abduction? Accident?

I sincerely hope the new search turns out to be fruitful and something of value to the investigation is found . The families pain will not be over by no means but at least there will be closure on the unknown and the grieving process can begin . They must be going crazy and going through all the scenarios in their minds as fast as we can type them . How would you rest ?

 

[Bigditch]

Might the polygraph tests be more about who refused to take it versus those who did?

 

[Twistinginthewind]

Things I would like to know

What was in the backpack ?

What time Maleyha rang her mum and what time she thought the kids went missing?

Was short curl lady and tan / gold sedan located and eliminated from inquiries?

Has forensic analysis of the blanket been finalised and did those test results turn up anything of value ?

How many houses had cameras that faced the road and how many of those cameras were programmed for all motion and where they each in a location that when footage was pieced together it captured the road in its entirety?

How many trail cams were in the area and were there blindspots or locations in which there were none and if so were there areas large enough that one could navigate through and not be seen . And if they encompassed most of the circumference of the area searched , was anything of value gleaned from the footage ?

And I'm intrigued by how the children managed to avoid being seen on all these cameras that seem
to rule every other tip or scenario out . And if the kids were able to miss these areas , could someone else familiar with the area be able to avoid them also ?

If cctv analysis of the road was conclusive enough to say there was no evidence of a vehicle. And trail cams didnt pick up anybody or anything of interest Did these same cameras give an image of the blanket in the tree to verify if it was present prior to the kids going missing ?

Was the bear found ?

Just some questions that float around in my cerebral fluids

Good questions.

I also wonder why, unless it was customary, IIRC:

-- Lilly reportedly slept with her backpack nearby

-- Lilly and Jack slept in their clothes instead of changing into their sleep pajamas

-- They were supposedly heard by DM after they had gone to bed chatting excitedly in their bedroom

This info is linked way upthread, perhaps only in one of DM's interviews with MSM which I don't think was transcribed in full.

JMO

 

[starlightstarbright]

Interestingly, I have a family member who “passed” a polygraph even though he admits he committed the crime. I think the “passing” has a lot to do with beliefs around what happened. He believes that what he did wasn’t a bad thing, so he’s able to talk about it like it’s normal with little emotional response. A bit like committing a rape but believing it was consensual. He can talk about the event, but it’s a normal good thing in his mind, not a bad criminal thing, which I think has a lot to do with why he supposedly “passed” (his words, not mine, as I am aware it’s not that simple). I think cognitive dissonance has a role to play -not necessarily saying that’s the case here. JMO

 

[MistyWaters]

No updates, nothing newsworthy in the news and unfortunately the weather is bringing in below freezing temps and snow by November 15th, when the nonprofit search group planned to check water areas.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/b204f8f3f619ea0b7fb4ce981941e5303e64814b7387ed7bdab2ce31ac8c1c25

 

[Slebby]

I’m thinking about the independent search planned by the volunteer missing persons group (Please Bring Me Home?)
Has anyone seen updates as to when they will be searching, or indeed, if the search is already underway? The search was planned for November, iirc.
And a question for Nova Scotians, or indeed, maritimers in general, what can be expected weather-wise in the upcoming days? Is this search even feasible, or are they going to run out of time? I’m in Alberta, and bracing myself for winter to show her face any day.

IMO

 

[Bigditch]

I’m thinking about the independent search planned by the volunteer missing persons group (Please Bring Me Home?)
Has anyone seen updates as to when they will be searching, or indeed, if the search is already underway? The search was planned for November, iirc.
And a question for Nova Scotians, or indeed, maritimers in general, what can be expected weather-wise in the upcoming days? Is this search even feasible, or are they going to run out of time? I’m in Alberta, and bracing myself for winter to show her face any day.

IMO

I thought it was today.

 

[Danaya]

So, question. Let's say that the "eyewitness" report from the woman who saw two children walking towards an older woman and a vehicle that morning is credible. Let's hypothesize that they were, in fact, Jack and Lily.

Why was the clothing Lily was last seen in (pink Barbie top) different than what the eyewitness saw—"darkish hair in pigtails and... a tank top with blue strings." Wouldn't investigators be able to determine if Lily had a tank top with blue strings missing?

I guess one theory could be that the woman led them down the path, towards the road. As they walked, she had Lily change into different clothing, and put Lily’s hair in pigtails. Presumably, she would've done this as a disguise for when they reached an area that potentially had more people.

Allegedly, Lily trusted people easily, and a "grandmotherly" type of woman could have concocted a ruse along the lines of, I'm here to take you to a special surprise party for _____ or Let's go see some puppies, here, change into this so you don’t get dirty! Etc.

If that's the case, and I'm not saying it is, then I would think that it's likely the female was working in tandem with a male. He could've been waiting in the parked vehicle. I know the eyewitness didn't mention a man sitting in the driver's seat but he could've been ducked down until it was time for them to drive away.

 

[MistyWaters]

I thought it was today.

Do you have a link for that? According to the groups FB page it’s a one-day search on the 15th.

 

[Slebby]

Something else I’m wondering, as I do everything in my power to avoid housework, lol.

WRT to polygraph exams. If an individual has a good lawyer, could that lawyer advocate for certain questions to be omitted from the examination? I am wondering about the polygraph examinations of both MBM and DM, which, according to the released court documents, indicates they were asked 4 questions. I realize this is likely in addition to initial questions establishing a baseline, maybe to help them become comfortable. But 4 specific questions related to the disappearance seems low. So I wonder, as a condition of agreeing to a polygraph, could a lawyer state that certain questions are off-limits? For example, because there are no bodies, could a lawyer argue that no questions could be asked around involvement in their death, since death is not established?
On another note, it would be interesting to know what sort of legal representation they have. I would guess MBM has a better lawyer who has advised her strongly to stay out of the public eye. Perhaps DM, not so much?
IMO

 

[Bigditch]

Do you have a link for that? According to the groups FB page it’s a one-day search on the 15th.

Oops, false memory syndrome.