Abby & Libby - The Delphi Murders - Richard Allen Arrested - #201

[MassGuy]

DNA is a little different than a subjective opinion.
MOO

Never mind... comment was deleted after I replied.

I didn’t like the comparison, but that’s not why. I’m talking about evidence being switched, not the scientific validity of that evidence.

 

[Elley Mae]

One more bullet question-sorry if it’s a stupid question or has already been repeatedly asked and I missed it - are tool marking on a bullet similar to say fingerprints or dna which can be documented independently prior to having a suspect in mind? I know that you’d need to have the gun to match- like needed a suspect to compare fingerprints or dna to look for a match- but could the bullet have been analyzed earlier and then matched to a particular gun at a later?

This may help.

Forensic Ballistics → Module 4 – Forensic Examination and Firearms Evidence - WILBER

wilber-learndev.com

 

[joe jones]

How much time are you talking about?

It has changed over time and often, from 15 minutes up to 1 hour is the time parameters over time, either end of that spectrum is not enough IMO, as he would have been a first time perp if RA IMO and fantasy and reality are two very different things, and I doubt the events happened how he fantasised they would, and I doubt the girls were as compliant as he imagined they would be whomever the perp is.
We have no idea if 1 or 3 of them fell going down the hill, takes more time getting up and moving again, did 1 or 3 fall in river, it was according to reports from trial after seeing pictures quite deep and fast flowing.
The getting down the hill across the river would have made all 3 out of breath and wet through at least up to the knees and probably higher with soaking wet shoes makes a difference to how fast you do things, plus they would begin to get cold quickly.
I think things immediately didn't go to plan for him so he had to formulate new plans, I don't know whether two victims was what he fantasised about or whether he saw an opportunity and took it, for a first time perp as RA would have been IMO it was a risky choice.

 

[Deleted member 296739]

How does one test a bullet before one has a weapon to test it against?

I would have assumed that the markings were somehow noticeable and identifiable like a fingerprint or dna sequence or something- and that they could be examined independently of a specific weapon-

kind of like a key, could say what it looked like and what types of lock/door it might open- before testing to see if it would open a specific lock or door-

I’m also completely ignorant of how these things work- hence my multiple questions about the matter- but outside looking in, my first thought would be that a bullet could be analyzed before and independently of having a specific weapon-
Moo

 

[Melted]

I assume the conspiracy is because they didn't photograph identifying features, the bullet in evidence could have been switched years later by corrupt officers who searched RAs house. That would involve them cycling a round through his gun then doing the switch.

Surely there would have been much better ways to frame him?

Or simply they messed their evidence up and made a mistake with it like we have seen time and time again in this investigation.

Never attribute to malice that which can be attributed to incompetence

Jmo

 

[joe jones]

This is a terrific everyday analogy -- instantly comprehensible for those of us who are guns & ammo challenged! Prosecution team, take note!

Who among us has not recognized a loaf or pastry made with **that** pan?

Might also help to explain that thorny term of the profiler's art, the "signature."

That doesn't exclude the fact that the pan didn't get extra dents over time thus making it not so unique

 

[WildHuncher]

This is a great reference from the MEDIA thread which may answer your questions. It's an evolving topic.

From that link:

“The reported instance of false-positive errors (where a cartridge and a gun were incorrectly matched) was 0.933%.”

The chance of a match being reported where there really is no match is 93 percent of ONE percent. Slightly better than 99 to one in RA’s favor if it wasn’t his gun, but he comes up craps. Bad luck, or conspiracy.

Before that ever happens, back in 2017 he goes for a walk in the park to look at fish and check his stocks. Wouldn’t you know, some guy his size and age dressed about the same as he is murders two eighth grade girls. Bad luck.

The other guy shows up in a poor quality video and no one can be sure it’s not RA. Other than that, nobody ever sees the other guy. Bad luck.

RA is confused about when and how he left the park, having to correct himself five years later. Nobody saw him leaving at any time. Bad luck.

Except maybe the lady who sees the muddy, bloody guy. Here, the story is vague. Maybe RA got muddy—but definitely not bloody according to his lawyers. LE misreported a witness description of a man walking along a road. They added blood where she only saw mud. That would be bad luck or maybe a conspiracy to frame.

Or maybe the witness saw the real killer looking like he had been in a fight to the death with a pig but it’s OK because that wasn’t RA. Hmmm. You’d think he’d remember if that was him or not. Either way, bad luck.

RA is looking like the Hard Luck Story Contest winner. I feel bad about the way I believe bad things about him.

 

[ClearAhead]

so hypothetically whomever served the search warrant and retrieved the gun fromRA’s home, could have hypothetically been able to eject/cycle a bullet through the gun and it was have had similar markings to the one found at the scene and or per conspiracy theories, swapped out the newly cycled bullet with the one found at the scene?

I don’t think that’s what happened personally, I’m thinking about how a “swap” or planted evidence might have happened - it seems really unlikely- moo

I suppose but that hypothetical scenario is too overly complicated to even be remotely believable. If LE were engaged in planting evidence why not make the connection indisputably unquestionable, for example removing something that connects directly to Abby or Libby and planting it in RA’s house to be discovered during the search?

Secondly, what’s the reason RA was selected to be framed? There’s far more likely candidates with criminal backgrounds who over the past several year have been investigated for a possible connection to this case. If LE were so inclined to plant evidence, they could’ve framed any one of them and nobody would’ve blinked. (ie RL, DN, JBC, KAK and others who’s names I’ve forgotten).

Personally I have absolutely no respect for a defense team who has nothing better to defend the innocence of their client than insinuating a LE framing/conspiracy without any proof whatsoever. The laziest of all defences, seldomly successful IMO.

JMO

 

[Deleted member 296739]

This may help.

Forensic Ballistics → Module 4 – Forensic Examination and Firearms Evidence - WILBER

wilber-learndev.com

Thank you- that is helpful

 

[Simply Southern]

Yeah. It's frustrating.

I went back to the Franks and these questions from Rozzi's cross are all in there as well. So they set up over a year ago to claim it was a fit up. This is why I suspect it's them who seeded the rumour with BM.

You would hope there is some accountability for this some day.

MOO

Well the upside… the Franks provide a playbook for the P.

It’s irrelevant what the general public thinks. It’s all up to 12 jurors.
Moo..

 

[Deleted member 39678]

It has changed over time and often, from 15 minutes up to 1 hour is the time parameters over time, either end of that spectrum is not enough IMO, as he would have been a first time perp if RA IMO and fantasy and reality are two very different things, and I doubt the events happened how he fantasised they would, and I doubt the girls were as compliant as he imagined they would be whomever the perp is.
We have no idea if 1 or 3 of them fell going down the hill, takes more time getting up and moving again, did 1 or 3 fall in river, it was according to reports from trial after seeing pictures quite deep and fast flowing.
The getting down the hill across the river would have made all 3 out of breath and wet through at least up to the knees and probably higher with soaking wet shoes makes a difference to how fast you do things, plus they would begin to get cold quickly.
I think things immediately didn't go to plan for him so he had to formulate new plans, I don't know whether two victims was what he fantasised about or whether he saw an opportunity and took it, for a first time perp as RA would have been IMO it was a risky choice.

Thanks. So we don't know how much time the killer used during this crime. I don't see why an hour is not enough time. And I don't see why less than that would unreasonable. JMO.

 

[Justice101]

From that link:

“The reported instance of false-positive errors (where a cartridge and a gun were incorrectly matched) was 0.933%.”

The chance of a match being reported where there really is no match is 93 percent of ONE percent. Slightly better than 99 to one in RA’s favor if it wasn’t his gun, but he comes up craps. Bad luck, or conspiracy.

Before that ever happens, back in 2017 he goes for a walk in the park to look at fish and check his stocks. Wouldn’t you know, some guy his size and age dressed about the same as he is murders two eighth grade girls. Bad luck.

The other guy shows up in a poor quality video and no one can be sure it’s not RA. Other than that, nobody ever sees the other guy. Bad luck.

RA is confused about when and how he left the park, having to correct himself five years later. Nobody saw him leaving at any time. Bad luck.

Except maybe the lady who sees the muddy, bloody guy. Here, the story is vague. Maybe RA got muddy—but definitely not bloody according to his lawyers. LE misreported a witness description of a man walking along a road. They added blood where she only saw mud. That would be bad luck or maybe a conspiracy to frame.

Or maybe the witness saw the real killer looking like he had been in a fight to the death with a pig but it’s OK because that wasn’t RA. Either way, bad luck.

RA is looking like the Hard Luck Story Contest winner. I feel bad about the way I believe bad things about him.

99% accuracy is much much better than eyewitness accuracy.

If I was the prosecution, I'd definitely still present it as such. Just another brick in the wall.

 

[justtrish]

One more bullet question-sorry if it’s a stupid question or has already been repeatedly asked and I missed it - are tool marking on a bullet similar to say fingerprints or dna which can be documented independently prior to having a suspect in mind? I know that you’d need to have the gun to match- like needed a suspect to compare fingerprints or dna to look for a match- but could the bullet have been analyzed earlier and then matched to a particular gun at a later?

It's not a dumb question at all.

I don't know that there is a database of sorts where unspent rounds can be compared. There is a database for fired rounds (which are most often found at crime scenes when someone is shot and killed it's usually with a bullet that has been fired from a gun).

Law Enforcement Use of the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN)

What Is NIBIN and How Is It Used? When a gun is made, the manufacturing equipment etches microscopic markings — somewhat like fingerprints — onto the gun’s metal parts. These markings, called tool marks, are transferred to a bullet or cartridge case when the gun is fired. When law enforcement...

nij.ojp.gov

In this case since the bullet wasn't fired, I don't believe they could enter it into this system, but they had it in evidence all this time and kept that quiet in the media and I do believe that is why RA never got rid of the gun. He either didn't know the round was dropped or he had no idea LE found it because he didn't shoot them. They kept that quiet so when they did have a person of interest they could possibly get the gun and compare the tool markings then. They use a microcscope. It's a shame we can't hear this evidence because it is fascinating. I've listened to experts in other cases that were tasked with comparing the bullets and it is in my opinion very much like fingerprinting.

 

[Vern]

I think it is very important to show all aspects of collection, how it looked when removed from ground, very good close up of it after removal with any markings and manufacturers stamps noted and taken. photos of this removes any doubt as to this is the cartridge we found and removed and placed and sealed in evidence bag on scene.
Not doing so leaves doubts as we can't be expected to solely rely on LE saying take my word for it this is the bullet as most people want to be sure the evidence is exactly what they say it is.

LE doesn' just say "take my word for it" ...

They give sworn testimony, under oath, under penatly of fine and/or imprisonment for committing perjury.

Just as the did yesterday.

 

[MassGuy]

LE doesn' just say "take my word for it" ...

They give sworn testimony, under oath, under penatly of fine and/or imprisonment for committing perjury.

Just as the did yesterday.

And evidence chain of custody protocols in place to prevent tampering in the first place (seals, labels, logs).

 

[Deleted member 296739]

I suppose but that hypothetical scenario is too overly complicated to even be remotely believable

I wasn’t saying I believed it, it was more to the point that if the chain of custody had been broken or not as documented as it should have been for the bullet at the crime scene, how might a similar bullet which did match RA’s gun come into existence and end up as evidence in this case

I wasn’t saying that I believed that RA was framed or contemplating better ways to frame him, I was fixating on the bullet markings and if with sloppy chain of custody of original bullet could a new bullet which was cycled through the gun have been relatively easy to create-

I don’t believe that is what happened and OP have provided me with articles and information to better understand both chain of custody for evidence as well as the background for analyzing bullets- this is a very difficult and strange case-

trying to understand the unfamiliar aspects

Moo

 

[bbbounce]

I’ve seen it reported many times the Libby was found naked and Abby was clothed, but in Libby’s clothes. Can anyone confirm, was Abby wearing Libby’s clothes when they set out for the walk that day? Eg borrowed clothes from Abby because she had slept over the previous night? Or was Abby somehow redressed into Libby’s clothes at the crime scene?

 

[AugustWest]

From that link:

“The reported instance of false-positive errors (where a cartridge and a gun were incorrectly matched) was 0.933%.”

The chance of a match being reported where there really is no match is 93 percent of ONE percent. Slightly better than 99 to one in RA’s favor if it wasn’t his gun, but he comes up craps. Bad luck, or conspiracy.

Before that ever happens, back in 2017 he goes for a walk in the park to look at fish and check his stocks. Wouldn’t you know, some guy his size and age dressed about the same as he is murders two eighth grade girls. Bad luck.

The other guy shows up in a poor quality video and no one can be sure it’s not RA. Other than that, nobody ever sees the other guy. Bad luck.

RA is confused about when and how he left the park, having to correct himself five years later. Nobody saw him leaving at any time. Bad luck.

Except maybe the lady who sees the muddy, bloody guy. Here, the story is vague. Maybe RA got muddy—but definitely not bloody according to his lawyers. LE misreported a witness description of a man walking along a road. They added blood where she only saw mud. That would be bad luck or maybe a conspiracy to frame.

Or maybe the witness saw the real killer looking like he had been in a fight to the death with a pig but it’s OK because that wasn’t RA. Either way, bad luck.

RA is looking like the Hard Luck Story Contest winner. I feel bad about the way I believe bad things about him.

The error rate is higher for unfired rounds. The reliability of the test is completely subjective; it is only reliable as the examiner.

Accuracy of comparison decisions by forensic firearms examiners - PMC

This black box study assessed the performance of forensic firearms examiners in the United States. It involved three different types of firearms and 173 volunteers who performed a total of 8640 comparisons of both bullets and cartridge cases. The ...

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The overall false‐positive error rate was estimated as 0.656% and 0.933% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively, while the rate of false negatives was estimated as 2.87% and 1.87% for bullets and cartridge cases, respectively. The majority of errors were made by a limited number of examiners. Because chi‐square tests of independence strongly suggest that error probabilities are not the same for each examiner, these are maximum‐likelihood estimates based on the beta‐binomial probability model and do not depend on an assumption of equal examiner‐specific error rates.

 

[Deleted member 229974]

Anyone have theories on why Abby had on Libby’s clothing? I realize Abby’s may have gotten wet - but why would she have Libby’s on and Libby be nude? This one is just boggling me. Especially if Abby was killed first. Do we think RA redressed her in the wrong clothes? Something else??

MOO

Or why the killer seemed more focused on Libby than Abby. I wonder if there was any prior connection between the two.

 

[BUF]

A good video of reporters that were in the courtroom yesterday describing what they saw and heard